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U.s. Jobless Claims Fall For First Time In 21 Weeks

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http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/19/business...ml?ref=business

The total number of people on the unemployment insurance rolls has dropped for the first time since early January, while first-time claims for benefits rose slightly.

And a report by a private research group forecast of economic activity rose in May.

The Labor Department said Thursday that the total unemployment insurance rolls fell last week by 148,000 to 6.76 million, the largest drop in more than seven years and an indication that layoffs may be easing.

The drop also breaks a string of 21 consecutive increases, the last 19 of which were record-highs. A dip in continuing claims several weeks ago was later revised higher.

The department also said initial claims rose 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 608,000 last week, above analysts’ expectations. The four-week average, which smoothes fluctuations, fell by 7,000 to 615,750. Continuing claims data lags initial claims by one week.

The drop in continuing claims could signal a slowing in the rise of the unemployment rate, which reached a 25-year high of 9.4 percent in May. Many economists forecast the rate could reach 10 percent by the end of the year.

Still, millions of Americans are receiving unemployment compensation under an emergency federal program authorized by Congress last summer and extended by the administration’s stimulus package.

About 2.36 million people received benefits under that program in the week ended May 30, an increase of more than 102,000 from the previous week. That’s in addition to the 6.7 million people receiving benefits under the 26-week program typically provided by states.

Economists also are closely watching the level of first-time claims for signs the economy will recover by mid-summer, as many analysts predict.

“If the labor market is indeed stabilizing, we should see a marked decline in new unemployment filings in the weeks ahead,†economists at Wrightson ICAP wrote in a note to clients this week.

The four-week average of claims has dropped by about 40,000 from nearly 659,000 in early April, its peak for the current recession.

But many economists want to see it fall further. Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase, said Tuesday that a drop in the four-week average to 580,000 by next month would be sufficient to declare the recession over.

Mr. Kasman is chairman of the American Bankers Association’s economic advisory committee, a group of economists for large banks that this week predicted the economy will recover in the third quarter. The Federal Reserve also expects the economy to begin growing again this year.

The calm before the storm, or the recovery?

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Here's a few comments off Market Ticker on this:

What is unemployment benefit duration? Approx 1 year? This would correlate with the layoffs beginning in earnest a year ago and now people dropping off the roles I believe? Wait til late 3rd and 4th quarter. Y/Y numbers will probably show improvements due to last year falling off a cliff. Now we just have a nice steady fall until the parachute collapses.
You just nailed what they virtually never tell us on the news. How many of those that just fell off the continuing claims list still don't have jobs and can't find one?
I like how the headline number isn't the one used last week, but the one that looks the least negative, and that interweek we are comparing apples with bananas. "Hmmmm, that's a real ****ty apple, show the banana instead." Pretty soon there won't be any numbers stated, just a little anecdotal piece about how "Jim Smith" found a job.
From the AP story:

".....Still, millions of Americans are receiving unemployment compensation under an emergency federal program authorized by Congress last summer and extended by the Obama administration's stimulus package.

About 2.36 million people received benefits under that program in the week ending May 30, an increase of more than 102,000 from the previous week. That's in addition to the 6.7 million people receiving benefits under the 26-week program typically provided by states...."

So, if I'm reading this correctly, the 102K offsets 70% of the 148K drop in continuing claims (which is the headline number) - so the "sharp drop" in the unemployment rolls is really well under 1% -

this information manipulation is so sad.

So when are the autoworkers going to show up? Or when will the gov come up with an excuse that they don't need to be in the numbers?
I thought the same thing. The cascade of auto related job loses will keep the numbers up.

What about this years high school and college graduates entering the job market.

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So what is the deal with those numbers. 90% of employment figures published usually refer to farm and non farm jobs....

Oddly enough it is also the height of the summer harvest over in Yankee-land.

More data required...

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http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/19/business...ml?ref=business

The calm before the storm, or the recovery?

Im hearing stories that Hedge Funds are starting to hire again. Capital inflows during March and June and been excellent. Too early to tell but it has to bottom out somewhere. The armeggedon so many HPCers were looking forward to isnt going to happen for a few years yet.

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Im hearing stories that Hedge Funds are starting to hire again. Capital inflows during March and June and been excellent. Too early to tell but it has to bottom out somewhere. The armeggedon so many HPCers were looking forward to isnt going to happen for a few years yet.

Yes, you must be right...

Don't you get tired of

beating-a-dead-horse.gif?

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Yes, you must be right...

Don't you get tired of

beating-a-dead-horse.gif?

You just stick to what you are good at - Posting some more news. You havent done it for 5 minutes. :P

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http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business...es-1710888.html

Saturday, 20 June 2009

Signs that unemployment pains may be easing in individual US states in April disappeared by May, when jobless rates jumped in 48 states and the District of Columbia, according to data released on Friday.

Michigan – home to the struggling car giants General Motors and Chrysler – reported the highest jobless rate of 14.1 per cent. Eight states reported record highs and the only states not to see increases were Vermont and Nebraska. The national unemployment rate last month in the US was 9.4 per cent.

And on Saturday we have this headline?

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After x weeks you drop off the jobless rolls and into the limbo of U6 (discouraged job-seekers).

Yup.

"Discussed" here.

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Yup.

"Discussed" here.

I do wish he'd observe at least some basic safety precautions as he hits that CRT with a crowbar. Safety goggles at least.

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Interesting table at the link.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm

U6 16.4% May 09

U6 9.4% May 08

U-6 Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers

Bingo. ;)

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