Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Confounded

New York House Prices To Decline By 40%, Areas Of Ca Down 63%

Recommended Posts

http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/deus...decline-in.html

Deutsche Bank Projecting A 40% Decline In NY Housing Prices

Posted by Tyler Durden at 2:01 PM

After the good folks in the Deutsche Bank securitization group anticipated a 47% drop in NY housing prices in March, they have released an updated report discussing the future pain in the top 10 MSA, and the biggest outlier by a big margin, once again, is the New York-White Plains-Wayne NY-NJ MSAD. With a 40% drop in prices still to come, if in the market to sell some real estate, you may want to do it as soon as possible before potential buyers realize how much cheaper they can get that 2 bedroom TriBeCa loft for.

Summary from the DB report:

(1) while home sales activity has picked up in some regions, much of it reflects clearing of distressed inventory and is accompanied by falling prices. Over the last several months, many MSAs reached their all time highs in affordability, helped by low mortgage rates. Unfortunately, affordability is no longer the driving issue in the housing market and we believe prices still have a ways to fall in many areas before home prices reach their trough. The bottom is closer but we are not there yet.

(2) For the US we are now projection a further 14% decline from 1Q09 this compares to the 16.5% current to trough decline we published our last outlook in March '09.

(3) Affordability no longer an issue in most of the Top 10 MSAs in the US but factors such as unemployment, distressed inventory and home price momentum are combining to still result in quite negative current to trough outlooks in some large MSAs.

(4) In NY prices still have to drop an additional 32% from 1Q09 levels just to restore affordability to its historic high (1998) but including model risk factors beyond just affordability we are projecting a 40.6% decline from 1Q09 (vs 47.4% in March ).

DB%20NY%206.18.09.jpg

Edited to add

Also worth clicking on this link to see the image above in more detail. Areas of CA projected to be down over 63%, again god help the UK!

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_FM71j6-VkNE/SjqE...+NY+6.18.09.jpg

Edited by Confounded

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And now a short edition of your favourite show, Gardener's Question Time:

Q: Do (Big) Apples have green shoots?

A: No.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
(4) In NY prices still have to drop an additional 32%

Of course what they fail to realise is that prices CAN'T fall in New York.

You see, in a big city like London everybody wants to work there but there are simply not enough houses for everyone.

This shortage of supply means it's absolutely impossible for to prices to fall and therefore London will be completely uneffected.

Just so you know.

Edit to add: Silly me, I wrote the wrong city.. you guys know what I mean't

Edited by libspero

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Of course what they fail to realise is that prices CAN'T fall in New York.

You see, in a big city like London everybody wants to work there but there are simply not enough houses for everyone.

This shortage of supply means it's absolutely impossible to prices to fall and therefore London will be completely uneffected.

Just so you know.

You have been well coached on the London bulls in depth arguments, I used to love it when we had real bulls on this site, and the very best bull was the London bull. My view on London has not changed a bit over the years, the implosion in prices will be spectacular.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
You see, of cause what they fail to realise is that prices CAN'T fall in New York.

You see, in a big city like London everybody wants to work there but there are simply not enough houses for everyone.

This shortage of supply means it's absolutely impossible to prices to fall and therefore London will be completely uneffected.

Just so you know.

Edit to add: Silly me, I wrote the wrong city.. you guys know what I mean't

What you fail to realise young libspero is that New York is obviously not in the same league as that Hub of Celestial Majesty that we poor provincial clods are (grudgingly) permitted to refer to as "London".

London is a major financial centre, whereas New York is, ermmmm...

London has a tradition of high property values, wheras New York was bought from the Indians for $65 and a box of General Mill's Lucky Charms.

Many businesses are based in London. The only business I can think of in New York is Bernie's hot dog stand on the corner of 5th and Main.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   291 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.