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MOP

The Storm Clouds Are Gathering

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I'm almost certain that the last few months have been totally irrational and the next leg down is coming soon. There has been a constant barrage of Green Shooting over the HPC bow in the past couple of months, but the bigger economic picture is still dire IMO.

Lets take stock of the current situation. Here are some examples (HPC threads over the past 7 days) of the bigger picture for the Bulls to think about:

General Economic Conditions

Don't Bank On A British Recovery - Forbes - British economy still faces very tough times

Mervyn King Says Government Must Produce A Plan To Repay National Debt.

Brown Accused Of 'big Lie' Over Public Finances While Darling Prompts Fears Of Fresh Tax Rises

King Says U.k. Banks May Need More Capital To Finance Recovery

Hedge Funds In Cayman Islands Withdraw From Uk Banks - Flight of captial continues...

Middle-class Inflation Twice Official Rate, As Petrol And Mortgages Prices Jump

Mpc Voted 9-0 To Continue Quantitative Easing

Uk Slips Down Global "It" League Table

Federal Reserve Report: Flow Of Funds Accounts Of The United States - Evidence of Continuing Collapse

The Recession Tracks The Great Depression - FT Piece

Evening Standard: Come Clean, Gordon Brown: The Worst Is Still To Come

Broke California Faces Shutdown At Arnie Schwarzenegger ’s Hands

Inflation Falls Less Than Expected

Prechter: Us To Lose Aaa Rating By End Of 2010

Russia, China Seek Greater International Clout At Bric Summit - Medvedev- Dollar has failed to serve its purpose

Recession Worst Is Yet To Come, Imf Warns

One In Nine Americans On Food Stamps, Usda Says

Foreign Investment In China Drops For Eighth Month

German Credit Crunch Deepens

$5.3 Trillion - The cost of bank rescues in Europe and UK - so far

European April Industrial Production Declines By Record 21.6%

China Plans To Buy Massive Volumes Of Gold

Baltic Dry Index Falls

Chancellor Says Oil Price Could Dampen Recovery Hopes

World Bank Downgrades 2009 Growth Forecasts Yet Again

Japanese contraction of 14.2pc for 1st quarter

Sweden Forced To Take Emergency Loan Amid Latvia Crisis

Banks

Ecb Warning On Banks Rattles Global Markets

Russian Banks Face $213 Billion Of Bad Assets

Standard & Poor’s Cuts Ratings/outlooks On 22 U.s. Banks

25 Of Spain's Banks Downgraded - Santander under review for possible downgrade

Ecb Warns Of $283 Billion New Bank Losses - UBS put on downgrade alert

Merrill Lynch Getting All Nervous About Fed Printing Money

U.s. Credit Card Defaults Rise To Record In May

More Hbos Write Offs

37 US Bank Failures so far this year compared to 25 in whole of 2008

Goldman Ceo Sees Gloom Ahead

Jobs

Uk Unemployment Rose To 2.261 Million In The Three Months To April

Just Over Half Uk Workers Have Accepted Reduced Pay And Benefits

Michelin Cuts 1,000 Jobs As Tyre Demand Deflates

It Job Market Goes Down Toilet

350,000 Public Sector Jobs To Go Over Next 5 Years

A Job Is Now Being Lost Every 30 Seconds

BA Asks Staff To Work For Nothing

Large U.s. Corporate Bankruptcies Accelerate In Recent Weeks - Bankruptcy Courts Are Struggling To Manage Cases

Porsche In Exclusive Talks With Qatar On Stake

Bank Policy Man Warns On Jobless - Blanchflower says it like it is

Saab Taken Over

Job Losses 'will Keep Rising For At Least Another Year'

About 10,000 Lawyers Face Losing Their Jobs

Bbc Stars Told Salaries To Be Slashed By Up To 40% In Crunch Meeting With Bosses

Household Wealth In U.s. Decreased By $1.3 Trillion

Axa To Make 560 Workers Redundant

Usa Unemployment Initial Claims Up 55% Yoy

Stocks

Ftse 100 Testing Downwards To 4300

This Rally May Need A New Source Of Fuel - NY Times

Housing

Buy-to-let Repossessions Set To Surge

Forclosure Wave Is Here

Daily Telegraph: House Prices: Further Falls Look Likely

Deutsche Bank- U.s. Home Prices To Fall Another 14% As Unemployment Deepens

Nationwide To Trigger I R Hiking Frenzy

Observer: Young People 'giving Up On The Property Dream'

Bank Of England Says 1.1m Homeowners In Negative Equity

97% fewer Mortgages Available

This ain't over Bulls. Not by a long way. ;)

Edited by MOP

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I'm almost certain that the last few months have been totally irrational and the next leg down is coming soon. There has been a constant barrage of Green Shooting over the HPC bow in the past couple of months, but the bigger economic picture is still dire IMO.

Lets take stock of the current situation. Here are some examples (HPC threads over the past 7 days) of the bigger picture for the Bulls to think about:

General Economic Conditions

Don't Bank On A British Recovery - Forbes - British economy still faces very tough times

Mervyn King Says Government Must Produce A Plan To Repay National Debt.

Brown Accused Of 'big Lie' Over Public Finances While Darling Prompts Fears Of Fresh Tax Rises

King Says U.k. Banks May Need More Capital To Finance Recovery

Hedge Funds In Cayman Islands Withdraw From Uk Banks - Flight of captial continues...

Middle-class Inflation Twice Official Rate, As Petrol And Mortgages Prices Jump

Mpc Voted 9-0 To Continue Quantitative Easing

Uk Slips Down Global "It" League Table

Federal Reserve Report: Flow Of Funds Accounts Of The United States - Evidence of Continuing Collapse

The Recession Tracks The Great Depression - FT Piece

Evening Standard: Come Clean, Gordon Brown: The Worst Is Still To Come

Broke California Faces Shutdown At Arnie Schwarzenegger ’s Hands

Inflation Falls Less Than Expected

Prechter: Us To Lose Aaa Rating By End Of 2010

Russia, China Seek Greater International Clout At Bric Summit - Medvedev- Dollar has failed to serve its purpose

Recession Worst Is Yet To Come, Imf Warns

One In Nine Americans On Food Stamps, Usda Says

Foreign Investment In China Drops For Eighth Month

German Credit Crunch Deepens

$5.3 Trillion - The cost of bank rescues in Europe and UK - so far

European April Industrial Production Declines By Record 21.6%

China Plans To Buy Massive Volumes Of Gold

Baltic Dry Index Falls

Chancellor Says Oil Price Could Dampen Recovery Hopes

World Bank Downgrades 2009 Growth Forecasts Yet Again

Japanese contraction of 14.2pc for 1st quarter

Sweden Forced To Take Emergency Loan Amid Latvia Crisis

Banks

Ecb Warning On Banks Rattles Global Markets

Russian Banks Face $213 Billion Of Bad Assets

Standard & Poor’s Cuts Ratings/outlooks On 22 U.s. Banks

25 Of Spain's Banks Downgraded - Santander under review for possible downgrade

Ecb Warns Of $283 Billion New Bank Losses - UBS put on downgrade alert

Merrill Lynch Getting All Nervous About Fed Printing Money

U.s. Credit Card Defaults Rise To Record In May

More Hbos Write Offs

37 US Bank Failures so far this year compared to 25 in whole of 2008

Goldman Ceo Sees Gloom Ahead

Jobs

Uk Unemployment Rose To 2.261 Million In The Three Months To April

Just Over Half Uk Workers Have Accepted Reduced Pay And Benefits

Michelin Cuts 1,000 Jobs As Tyre Demand Deflates

It Job Market Goes Down Toilet

350,000 Public Sector Jobs To Go Over Next 5 Years

A Job Is Now Being Lost Every 30 Seconds

BA Asks Staff To Work For Nothing

Large U.s. Corporate Bankruptcies Accelerate In Recent Weeks - Bankruptcy Courts Are Struggling To Manage Cases

Porsche In Exclusive Talks With Qatar On Stake

Bank Policy Man Warns On Jobless - Blanchflower says it like it is

Saab Taken Over

Job Losses 'will Keep Rising For At Least Another Year'

About 10,000 Lawyers Face Losing Their Jobs

Bbc Stars Told Salaries To Be Slashed By Up To 40% In Crunch Meeting With Bosses

Household Wealth In U.s. Decreased By $1.3 Trillion

Axa To Make 560 Workers Redundant

Usa Unemployment Initial Claims Up 55% Yoy

Stocks

Ftse 100 Testing Downwards To 4300

This Rally May Need A New Source Of Fuel - NY Times

Housing

Buy-to-let Repossessions Set To Surge

Forclosure Wave Is Here

Daily Telegraph: House Prices: Further Falls Look Likely

Deutsche Bank- U.s. Home Prices To Fall Another 14% As Unemployment Deepens

Nationwide To Trigger I R Hiking Frenzy

Observer: Young People 'giving Up On The Property Dream'

Bank Of England Says 1.1m Homeowners In Negative Equity

97% fewer Mortgages Available

This ain't over Bulls. Not by a long way. ;)

So things are looking up then

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Some loon on the Sheffield Forum thought that the recession was all down to "media hype".

What can you do? :rolleyes:

Think positive you fool.

Oddball: Why don't you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don't you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don't you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?

Moriarty: Crap!

Oddball: Crazy! I mean like so many positive waves maybe we can't lose! You're on!

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I’m pretty certain myself that the next leg down is approaching fast and there’s nothing they can do to stop it.

Being pedantic, everything over the last 6 months was perfectly orchestrated in timing in a last ditch attempt to re-inflate the bubble.

The president Obama wave, a fresh new start, they timed perfectly QE and Interest rate slashing just in time for the regular property spring bounce.

Now I can’t see what else Labour has in reserve for the coming a general election

They’ve shot their best bolt and the bubble still sags.

If people were saying the cupboard was bare last year, now there is no cupboard, it’s been dismantled, flogged and burned.

As has been said, the stock markets looking like it’s ran out of steam, bonds are still going up, home buying is still nowhere near what it was prior, even the media are preparing us for an new bailout. The signs are there.

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Guest theboltonfury

yes, been thinking that myself lately. There's a chill in the air again, unfortunately.

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I think the Sheffield post needs to be seen in full :-

Very enlightning, the recession was more or less created by the media hype, with the economy recovering I feel there is light at the end of the tunnel sooner that all you doom and gloomers think.

So all those people who waited for prices to drop even further will soon be loosing out as they are on the rise

It demonstrates what happens if certain people don't take their medication.

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I'm almost certain that the last few months have been totally irrational and the next leg down is coming soon. There has been a constant barrage of Green Shooting over the HPC bow in the past couple of months, but the bigger economic picture is still dire IMO.

Lets take stock of the current situation. Here are some examples (HPC threads over the past 7 days) of the bigger picture for the Bulls to think about:

General Economic Conditions

Don't Bank On A British Recovery - Forbes - British economy still faces very tough times

Mervyn King Says Government Must Produce A Plan To Repay National Debt.

Brown Accused Of 'big Lie' Over Public Finances While Darling Prompts Fears Of Fresh Tax Rises

King Says U.k. Banks May Need More Capital To Finance Recovery

Hedge Funds In Cayman Islands Withdraw From Uk Banks - Flight of captial continues...

Middle-class Inflation Twice Official Rate, As Petrol And Mortgages Prices Jump

Mpc Voted 9-0 To Continue Quantitative Easing

Uk Slips Down Global "It" League Table

Federal Reserve Report: Flow Of Funds Accounts Of The United States - Evidence of Continuing Collapse

The Recession Tracks The Great Depression - FT Piece

Evening Standard: Come Clean, Gordon Brown: The Worst Is Still To Come

Broke California Faces Shutdown At Arnie Schwarzenegger ’s Hands

Inflation Falls Less Than Expected

Prechter: Us To Lose Aaa Rating By End Of 2010

Russia, China Seek Greater International Clout At Bric Summit - Medvedev- Dollar has failed to serve its purpose

Recession Worst Is Yet To Come, Imf Warns

One In Nine Americans On Food Stamps, Usda Says

Foreign Investment In China Drops For Eighth Month

German Credit Crunch Deepens

$5.3 Trillion - The cost of bank rescues in Europe and UK - so far

European April Industrial Production Declines By Record 21.6%

China Plans To Buy Massive Volumes Of Gold

Baltic Dry Index Falls

Chancellor Says Oil Price Could Dampen Recovery Hopes

World Bank Downgrades 2009 Growth Forecasts Yet Again

Japanese contraction of 14.2pc for 1st quarter

Sweden Forced To Take Emergency Loan Amid Latvia Crisis

Banks

Ecb Warning On Banks Rattles Global Markets

Russian Banks Face $213 Billion Of Bad Assets

Standard & Poor’s Cuts Ratings/outlooks On 22 U.s. Banks

25 Of Spain's Banks Downgraded - Santander under review for possible downgrade

Ecb Warns Of $283 Billion New Bank Losses - UBS put on downgrade alert

Merrill Lynch Getting All Nervous About Fed Printing Money

U.s. Credit Card Defaults Rise To Record In May

More Hbos Write Offs

37 US Bank Failures so far this year compared to 25 in whole of 2008

Goldman Ceo Sees Gloom Ahead

Jobs

Uk Unemployment Rose To 2.261 Million In The Three Months To April

Just Over Half Uk Workers Have Accepted Reduced Pay And Benefits

Michelin Cuts 1,000 Jobs As Tyre Demand Deflates

It Job Market Goes Down Toilet

350,000 Public Sector Jobs To Go Over Next 5 Years

A Job Is Now Being Lost Every 30 Seconds

BA Asks Staff To Work For Nothing

Large U.s. Corporate Bankruptcies Accelerate In Recent Weeks - Bankruptcy Courts Are Struggling To Manage Cases

Porsche In Exclusive Talks With Qatar On Stake

Bank Policy Man Warns On Jobless - Blanchflower says it like it is

Saab Taken Over

Job Losses 'will Keep Rising For At Least Another Year'

About 10,000 Lawyers Face Losing Their Jobs

Bbc Stars Told Salaries To Be Slashed By Up To 40% In Crunch Meeting With Bosses

Household Wealth In U.s. Decreased By $1.3 Trillion

Axa To Make 560 Workers Redundant

Usa Unemployment Initial Claims Up 55% Yoy

Stocks

Ftse 100 Testing Downwards To 4300

This Rally May Need A New Source Of Fuel - NY Times

Housing

Buy-to-let Repossessions Set To Surge

Forclosure Wave Is Here

Daily Telegraph: House Prices: Further Falls Look Likely

Deutsche Bank- U.s. Home Prices To Fall Another 14% As Unemployment Deepens

Nationwide To Trigger I R Hiking Frenzy

Observer: Young People 'giving Up On The Property Dream'

Bank Of England Says 1.1m Homeowners In Negative Equity

97% fewer Mortgages Available

This ain't over Bulls. Not by a long way. ;)

A very good post. You missed out house value against earning ratio still higher than at the peak of the last bubble that to me says it all. I can think of a couple of graphs that say it all as well. You know, it's only a few bulls mostly trolling here that you feel the need to post this. If you stand back for even a few seconds the true picture is pretty damn awful. The recent nonsense about there being a turnaround was just b@ll@cks. I guess it's just human nature that makes us try to look at the bright side, trouble is, a recovery is such a long way off from now!

What I can not understand is some sheeple saying that in such and such area prices are nearing affordable again, no they are not! Not for Mr & Mrs average. Prices went up 190% in 10 years and only dropped back 23% or so, sorry, they are still far too expensive.

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A very good post. You missed out house value against earning ratio still higher than at the peak of the last bubble that to me says it all. I can think of a couple of graphs that say it all as well. You know, it's only a few bulls mostly trolling here that you feel the need to post this. If you stand back for even a few seconds the true picture is pretty damn awful. The recent nonsense about there being a turnaround was just b@ll@cks. I guess it's just human nature that makes us try to look at the bright side, trouble is, a recovery is such a long way off from now!

I posted this for the benefit of the Bears as well.

Some Bears are buying houses, turning Bull etc and I think many of them are getting caught up in all the media hype of the past couple of months. Are we really expected to believe that the biggest bust in history is now resolved and the boom times are just around the corner again?

Just to hammer home the point about "the bigger picture":

Triple blow for UK economy

Larry Elliott, economics editor

guardian.co.uk, Thursday 18 June 2009 10.08 BST

• Public borrowing hits highest on record

• High street trading down 0.6% in May

• Bank lending to non-financial firms down 5.4%

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/ju...public-spending

Edited by MOP

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We've always said that after prices started to fall a lot of people with money would see "reduced" prices and pile in for a bargain. Once all the morons have blown their load on a deprecieting pile of bricks, prices will, quite literally, free-fall and the big money will be witing for the bottom to clean up, knowing there will be no small investor to have to bid against as they all blew their wad just after the peak in the hope of a "bargain".

Remember, the big investors don't go and look in the EAs, they lie on a beach in the bahamas and have teams of investment managers who manage their money for them. in reality, they have no idea what their money is invested in and don't care as long the bank balance keep going up and the mohitoes keep coming.

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I'm almost certain that the last few months have been totally irrational and the next leg down is coming soon. There has been a constant barrage of Green Shooting over the HPC bow in the past couple of months, but the bigger economic picture is still dire IMO.

Lets take stock of the current situation. Here are some examples (HPC threads over the past 7 days) of the bigger picture for the Bulls to think about:

General Economic Conditions

Don't Bank On A British Recovery - Forbes - British economy still faces very tough times

Mervyn King Says Government Must Produce A Plan To Repay National Debt.

Brown Accused Of 'big Lie' Over Public Finances While Darling Prompts Fears Of Fresh Tax Rises

King Says U.k. Banks May Need More Capital To Finance Recovery

Hedge Funds In Cayman Islands Withdraw From Uk Banks - Flight of captial continues...

Middle-class Inflation Twice Official Rate, As Petrol And Mortgages Prices Jump

Mpc Voted 9-0 To Continue Quantitative Easing

Uk Slips Down Global "It" League Table

Federal Reserve Report: Flow Of Funds Accounts Of The United States - Evidence of Continuing Collapse

The Recession Tracks The Great Depression - FT Piece

Evening Standard: Come Clean, Gordon Brown: The Worst Is Still To Come

Broke California Faces Shutdown At Arnie Schwarzenegger ’s Hands

Inflation Falls Less Than Expected

Prechter: Us To Lose Aaa Rating By End Of 2010

Russia, China Seek Greater International Clout At Bric Summit - Medvedev- Dollar has failed to serve its purpose

Recession Worst Is Yet To Come, Imf Warns

One In Nine Americans On Food Stamps, Usda Says

Foreign Investment In China Drops For Eighth Month

German Credit Crunch Deepens

$5.3 Trillion - The cost of bank rescues in Europe and UK - so far

European April Industrial Production Declines By Record 21.6%

China Plans To Buy Massive Volumes Of Gold

Baltic Dry Index Falls

Chancellor Says Oil Price Could Dampen Recovery Hopes

World Bank Downgrades 2009 Growth Forecasts Yet Again

Japanese contraction of 14.2pc for 1st quarter

Sweden Forced To Take Emergency Loan Amid Latvia Crisis

Banks

Ecb Warning On Banks Rattles Global Markets

Russian Banks Face $213 Billion Of Bad Assets

Standard & Poor’s Cuts Ratings/outlooks On 22 U.s. Banks

25 Of Spain's Banks Downgraded - Santander under review for possible downgrade

Ecb Warns Of $283 Billion New Bank Losses - UBS put on downgrade alert

Merrill Lynch Getting All Nervous About Fed Printing Money

U.s. Credit Card Defaults Rise To Record In May

More Hbos Write Offs

37 US Bank Failures so far this year compared to 25 in whole of 2008

Goldman Ceo Sees Gloom Ahead

Jobs

Uk Unemployment Rose To 2.261 Million In The Three Months To April

Just Over Half Uk Workers Have Accepted Reduced Pay And Benefits

Michelin Cuts 1,000 Jobs As Tyre Demand Deflates

It Job Market Goes Down Toilet

350,000 Public Sector Jobs To Go Over Next 5 Years

A Job Is Now Being Lost Every 30 Seconds

BA Asks Staff To Work For Nothing

Large U.s. Corporate Bankruptcies Accelerate In Recent Weeks - Bankruptcy Courts Are Struggling To Manage Cases

Porsche In Exclusive Talks With Qatar On Stake

Bank Policy Man Warns On Jobless - Blanchflower says it like it is

Saab Taken Over

Job Losses 'will Keep Rising For At Least Another Year'

About 10,000 Lawyers Face Losing Their Jobs

Bbc Stars Told Salaries To Be Slashed By Up To 40% In Crunch Meeting With Bosses

Household Wealth In U.s. Decreased By $1.3 Trillion

Axa To Make 560 Workers Redundant

Usa Unemployment Initial Claims Up 55% Yoy

Stocks

Ftse 100 Testing Downwards To 4300

This Rally May Need A New Source Of Fuel - NY Times

Housing

Buy-to-let Repossessions Set To Surge

Forclosure Wave Is Here

Daily Telegraph: House Prices: Further Falls Look Likely

Deutsche Bank- U.s. Home Prices To Fall Another 14% As Unemployment Deepens

Nationwide To Trigger I R Hiking Frenzy

Observer: Young People 'giving Up On The Property Dream'

Bank Of England Says 1.1m Homeowners In Negative Equity

97% fewer Mortgages Available

This ain't over Bulls. Not by a long way. ;)

why did you not annotate this with pictures?

what about the hard of reading like me, its just a bunch of lines and circles, to me a mystrey!

more pictures!!!

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Just looked at the "Economy" section on The Times and saw these headlines at the top:

Factory orders tumble as lending deteriorates

Export orders for British-made goods fall at fastest pace in a decade while lending to private corporations falls £5.4bn

Retail sales tumble further than expected

Sales fell further than expected in May, official figures show, putting a dampener on hopes of a consumer recovery

Mortgage fall belies recovery hopes

Value of home loans granted in May plunges 58% as homeowners shun deals to stay on low standard variable rate

Public borrowing hits record high of £20bn

British recession takes its toll on the public purse as tax revenues fall and spending on benefits soars

Oh dear...

Is the recovery officially off now then?

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And you correlated all that lot?

You want to get out more. ;)

It was 15mins well spent if it knocks some sense into a few people. ;)

Typo

Edited by MOP

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Guest spp

Just keep an eye on income tax revenue from here...that will show you true unemployment...ohhhh boy!

We are in need of more and more preparation threads IMO. Bulls wake up or you are going to become lambs to the slaughter!

I wasn't around when CGNAO was in town, but we need him back.

He surely has valuable info on the crisis stages we are facing next.

He sometimes appears on GEI, so if any of you can pm him......

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Guest theboltonfury
Atleast house prices are on the rise!

15i2cs4.gif

4lg4tgw.gif

Just what exactly is that thing on Chuck's head? He must have been mates with Frankie Howerd

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I wasn't around when CGNAO was in town, but we need him back.

He surely has valuable info on the crisis stages we are facing next.

He sometimes appears on GEI, so if any of you can pm him......

He doesn't post there any more, at least not using that name. Apparently his identity was blown, which is a shame, since I'd like to know his thoughts on the current situation.

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Guest spp
It was 15mins well spent if it knocks some sense into a few people. ;)

Typo

Very much appreciated MOP!

Not that I personaly needed telling, but let's hope some do wake up.

Things surely are speeding up at quite a rate.

:ph34r:

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It was 15mins well spent if it knocks some sense into a few people. ;)

Typo

And thankyou for it as well, children do not listen to parents, perhaps some young people will read this and understand that now is the time to be patient , and resist the sales pressure of agents. They are expert at selling anchors (houses) and will one day be regulated , but at the moment the can spout any old rubbish. One day they will have to provide proof that you are making a wise investment, for now they are the worst liars in society, or perhaps just very very ignorant. If you are someones daughter or son , and you are thinking of buying an anchor, please listen to me, if you have any doubts, any whatsoever, do not go near an estate agent. enjoty life, stay footloose , and do not tie yourself down to anything, not a house, or a street, or a town, or a country, you may need to be very flexible in your life now that Brown has ruined your England.

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