Rinoa Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 Telegraph Around 49 per cent of people think property values will increase in the coming 12 months, while 12 per cent think they will stay the same, according to the Building Societies Association.But people are not expecting strong gains, predicting that prices will edge ahead by only 1.4 per cent during the period, although this is a significant improvement from predictions of falls of 6.1 per cent when the same research was conducted in March.The survey also found that 59 per cent of people think now is a good time to buy a property, up from 54 per cent in March. Only one in five people now think it is a bad time to purchase a home, while 27 per cent of those questioned are still expecting further price falls, down from 65 per cent in March. The rise in confidence follows a run of positive data on the housing market in recent weeks, with both Nationwide and Halifax reporting house price rises during May. Estate agents have also reported a continued pick up in interest as potential buyers are tempted back to the market by recent house price falls and record low interest rates. But the BSA warned that unemployment levels and the supply of mortgages would be key to any housing market recovery. Six out of 10 people said concerns about job security were the biggest barrier preventing them from buying a home, unchanged from March. A further 55 per cent said they did not think they would be able to get the mortgage they needed, while 52 per cent were worried that they did not have a big enough deposit. But the number of people worried that they would not be able to afford their monthly mortgage repayments has fallen dramatically since the Bank of England began to cut the base rate aggressively, dropping to just 33 per cent now, compared with 70 per cent a year ago when the base rate was 5 per cent. Only 22 per cent of people claim they would hold off buying a property because they are worried its price will fall, down from 51 per cent in September. Paul Broadhead, head of mortgage policy at the BSA, said: "There have been a number of encouraging signs that the worst of the property crash has passed recently and the Property Tracker shows that people think both that property prices will now rise and that now is a good time to buy. "However, improving job security will be key to any substantial recovery of the housing market." Meanwhile, figures from mortgage broker John Charcol showed that the recent pick up in buyer interest is beginning to translate into sales. The group said it arranged more mortgages for people buying a property than those remortgaging during May for the first time since 2007. Around 53 per cent of mortgages arranged by the group during the month were for house purchase, up from an average of just 25 per cent during 2008. The number of mortgage inquiries relating to house purchase also rose to account for 60 per cent of the total during May, up from 49 per cent in April. Ray Boulger, senior technical manager at John Charcol, said: "This suggests that as these inquiries translate into actual business the proportion of purchases in our business written will continue to rise over the next few months. It seems that the market is continuing to show positive signs of recovery." The great british public have spoken. Sentiment returns ~ and they're looking to buy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrillsBears Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 TelegraphThe great british public have spoken. Sentiment returns ~ and they're looking to buy. Fools money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Agentimmo Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 (edited) The great British public can wish all they like. Unfortunately the banks are the people who decide whether to lend. And against a falling asset, they will not take the risk. Look at transactions. 70K or more per month at the height of the boom. Now ?? "I wish....I wish.....I wish I didn't keep losin' me birds" Edited June 17, 2009 by Agentimmo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matnrach Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 TelegraphThe great british public have spoken. Sentiment returns ~ and they're looking to buy. Depends what you want to believe http://timesbusiness.typepad.com/money_web...years-time.html At the moment its 70% going down Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE BALD MAN Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 TelegraphThe great british public have spoken. Sentiment returns ~ and they're looking to buy. Desire to buy does not directly translate to sales backed by money Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOP Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 Depends what you want to believehttp://timesbusiness.typepad.com/money_web...years-time.html At the moment its 70% going down Better luck next time Rinoa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dr ray Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 TelegraphThe great british public have spoken. Sentiment returns ~ and they're looking to buy. Last weeks news. Its all going t1ts up again now but hasn't fed through to the advertorials yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE BALD MAN Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 TelegraphThe great british public have spoken. Sentiment returns ~ and they're looking to buy. By the way Boulger requires the housing bubble to reflate or he has no business. A true VI... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twatmangle Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 TelegraphThe great british public have spoken. Sentiment returns ~ and they're looking to buy. I still can't work out why people want house prices to rise. When will people realise that HPI just makes the gap between the rungs get even further apart. You move 'up' the ladder by working and paying off your mortgage, not by shifting debt around. I am currently in the process of buying a house, this is because it makes sense in my case, even though I think prices will continue to fall. I could pay off my mortgage in less than 10 years ceteris parabis. Therefore I would prefer prices to remain the same so that I can easily get something bigger when this time comes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinceBalls Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 (edited) Fools money. Sentiment is for fools indeed. Sentiment may help drive markets to the top (when the last of the idiots are sucked into a bubble about to go 'pop' because no sensible person would cross the road to p1ss on it let alone invest in it) but fundamentals rule and the fundamentals are SHOCKING. Just because the idiots next door read the Daily Mail doesn't mean their house is going to go up in value this year. If they are lucky, they might keep their jobs. Edited June 17, 2009 by MinceBalls Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
three pint princess Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 The group said it arranged more mortgages for people buying a property than those remortgaging during May for the first time since 2007.Around 53 per cent of mortgages arranged by the group during the month were for house purchase, up from an average of just 25 per cent during 2008. Ignoring the wider issues, isn't that completely misleading. Remortgaging has fallen because you can't get lower than 0% for a mortgage and house purchases are around record lows according to even the most bullish view. They are describing very low transaction levels overtaking negative levels of remortgaging. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrillsBears Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 Sentiment is for fools indeed. Sentiment may help drive markets to the top (when the last of the idiots are sucked into a bubble about to go 'pop' because no sensible person would cross the road to p1ss on it let alone invest in it) but fundamentals rule and the fundamentals are SHOCKING. Just because the idiots next door read the Daily Mail doesn't mean their house is going to go up in value this year. If they are lucky, they might keep their jobs. Yep. Sentiment will no more "save" the housing market than it would have the Titanic. Just because the public don't understand deleveraging and the imapact on the economy doesn't mean it isn't happening. Public sentiment is best summed up by making a case study of Jade Goody. Racist idiot to saint within 12 months. The public are idiots. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brocken spectre Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 I liken it to a man in a Barrel,just about to go over Niagara Falls,shouting,"it's not as bad as i thought". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Executive Sadman Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 The great british public have spoken. Says it all really. Expect another 80% down this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PotNoodle Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 Around 49 per cent of people think property values will increase in the coming 12 months OK. So 49% think HP will go up. Six out of 10 people said concerns about job security were the biggest barrier preventing them from buying a home, unchanged from March. But 60% are not so sure about their job that they will commit to actually buying a house. If 60% of the population hold back from buying a house.... will prices go up ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rinoa Posted June 17, 2009 Author Share Posted June 17, 2009 (edited) Depends what you want to believehttp://timesbusiness.typepad.com/money_web...years-time.html At the moment its 70% going down It's an eMail poll. All the armageddonists and the HPC Al-Qaeda wing vote on these. The BSA poll is conducted each month by You.gov. Which one is the most believable? Edited June 17, 2009 by Rinoa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rinoa Posted June 17, 2009 Author Share Posted June 17, 2009 OK. So 49% think HP will go up.But 60% are not so sure about their job that they will commit to actually buying a house. If 60% of the population hold back from buying a house.... will prices go up ? Looking at today's unemployment figures, the numbers losing thier job will be a lot less than forecast. This will no doubt help mitigate job fears as the recovery continues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the primitive Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 The great british public have spoken. Sentiment returns ~ and they're looking to buy. not quite sure what your point is here. Ask 10 economists and you'll get 11 different opinions, so the saying goes. Asking Joe Random about economics isn't likely to tell you diddly squat. I could link to surveys about how many Americans think they've been abducted by aliens, it makes no difference to the reality of alien presence. I think you think sentiment alone can restore the housing market to its former heights. Am I right? No doubt sentiment is improving, but so what. I want to buy a Ferrari..oh whoops, I can't - no one will lend me the money. And that is the whole point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rinoa Posted June 17, 2009 Author Share Posted June 17, 2009 ....house purchases are around record lows according to even the most bullish view. BoE approvals are up 55% since November. That's sesonally adjusted too. (Here comes Bloo Loo 5-4-3-2-1....) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
red Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 By the way Boulger requires the housing bubble to reflate or he has no business. A true VI... Well actually he requires the market to recalibrate to a level whereby people can actually afford to take out mortgages (at sensible multiples of income) and that means prices falling further. God knows why he's ramping with the rest of them... greed & ignorance knows no bounds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinceBalls Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 (edited) Looking at today's unemployment figures, the numbers losing thier job will be a lot less than forecast. This will no doubt help mitigate job fears as the recovery continues. TOSH!!! That's what they want you to believe. The original forecasts said another 1 million out of work this year. How many more people this quarter are not in work? 270K. What's 4 x 270K? doh! Edited June 17, 2009 by MinceBalls Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
three pint princess Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 (edited) BoE approvals are up 55% since November. That's sesonally adjusted too.(Here comes Bloo Loo 5-4-3-2-1....) My issue was comparing remortgaging to house purchases , the second issue would be using % terms with low transaction levels instead of using Numbers or YoY comparisons. Do you agree remortgaging and purchase should have been compared in the way they were? Edited June 17, 2009 by Tom Peters Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rinoa Posted June 17, 2009 Author Share Posted June 17, 2009 I think you think sentiment alone can restore the housing market to its former heights. Am I right? No doubt sentiment is improving, but so what. It's an important ingredient. If people believe house prices are going to fall they are less likely to buy. But more and more now think house prices will not fall. That's has to make a difference to the numbers of prospective buyers. The more prospective buyers, the more will be able to meet lenders criteria. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goat Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 Timewasting trolling bulls*** :angry: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinceBalls Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 BoE approvals are up 55% since November. That's sesonally adjusted too. From what level? Pointless statistic without that figure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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