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VeryMeanReversion

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Many of us on here are expecting 40-50% off peak house prices, some even joined the 80-90% club.

Is a return to average price/rent/income ratios now possible without completely destroying the economy? Unless the bank losses are continually bailed out by taxpayers and run in zombie mode for a couple of decades, I don't see an alternate path to resolve this.

What do you think the point of no return is ? Would an even bigger bubble been needed to finally break the system?

VMR.

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Many of us on here are expecting 40-50% off peak house prices, some even joined the 80-90% club.

Is a return to average price/rent/income ratios now possible without completely destroying the economy? Unless the bank losses are continually bailed out by taxpayers and run in zombie mode for a couple of decades, I don't see an alternate path to resolve this.

oh yes indeedy.

What do you think the point of no return is ? Would an even bigger bubble been needed to finally break the system?

VMR.

we have passed that already. :ph34r:

Edited by grumpy-old-man-returns

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Sorry, but it's all broken. I dont think there are any credible, pleasant exit strategies at this point.

Mitigated my language in order not to seem too TFH.

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Sorry, but it's all broken. I dont think there are any credible, pleasant exit strategies at this point.

Mitigated my language in order not to seem too TFH.

I have to agree I don't think they have any exit strategy. They appear to be hoping for a miracle bubble in anything to get us out of this mess.

Personally I don't think there is another bubble looming, the only realistic option would be a green tech bubble but I think it may be too late for that.

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I have to agree I don't think they have any exit strategy. They appear to be hoping for a miracle bubble in anything to get us out of this mess.

Personally I don't think there is another bubble looming, the only realistic option would be a green tech bubble but I think it may be too late for that.

Yep.

The thing is - if you are going to bubble all that does is divert resources from elsewhere.

What elsewhere this time? It's spent and still owing!

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They appear to be hoping for a miracle bubble in anything to get us out of this mess.

The previous bubble sucked down the whole global banking system.

How can they expect anything, now, to prop up what remains ?

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Personally I don't think there is another bubble looming, the only realistic option would be a green tech bubble but I think it may be too late for that.

I must admit I also thought the green tech bubble, but now I am starting to think there won't be one for a few years. However the sceptic in me thinks that there always has to be a bubble otherwise how do the rich get richer ?

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I must admit I also thought the green tech bubble, but now I am starting to think there won't be one for a few years. However the sceptic in me thinks that there always has to be a bubble otherwise how do the rich get richer ?

War?

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War?

I really don't know tbh.

I have posted a few times we get to find out if the link between depression & war is true, BUT how would they wage war now, without it going nuclear ?

edited to add - I do think the US & UK will have civil war though & that will be very bad. let's hope it doesn't come to that.

FEMA camps. :ph34r:

Edited by grumpy-old-man-returns

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So the HPC hive-mind is currently predicting:

- Spring bounce to end soon, next major leg down in the Autumn

- The next leg down will be wipe out banks and governments completely

- The best we can hope for is a non-nuclear war.

It doesn't give me much of a window in which to buy a house really. I'll hardly have time to plant some veg before I get called up for active service :o

VMR.

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So the HPC hive-mind is currently predicting:

- Spring bounce to end soon, next major leg down in the Autumn

- The next leg down will be wipe out banks and governments completely

- The best we can hope for is a non-nuclear war.

It doesn't give me much of a window in which to buy a house really. I'll hardly have time to plant some veg before I get called up for active service :o

VMR.

:D:D

you won't find a 'snuggle blanket' here VMR

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I really don't know tbh.

I have posted a few times we get to find out if the link between depression & war is true, BUT how would they wage war now, without it going nuclear ?

edited to add - I do think the US & UK will have civil war though & that will be very bad. let's hope it doesn't come to that.

FEMA camps. :ph34r:

Pakistan? No need to use nukes there. The CIA claimed last week that Bin Laden is in the Swat Valley. :ph34r:

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I really don't know tbh.

I have posted a few times we get to find out if the link between depression & war is true, BUT how would they wage war now, without it going nuclear ?

edited to add - I do think the US & UK will have civil war though & that will be very bad. let's hope it doesn't come to that.

FEMA camps. :ph34r:

Wars are caused by central banks.

Depressions are brought in to create/cement the power of central banks.

War is pretty much impossible without a central banks inflationary ability.

The current crisis is all because of the central banks now having reached their exponential limits in a finite world - both in terms of what they can credibly promise for the future and repay from the past. An organised implosion has been arranged, leading to the setting up of something rather similar to what they have now, only starting again at year zero with a clean slate - the theory being we can go back to "the way things were."

Wars need paying for and the kitty is empty.

For now.

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Many of us on here are expecting 40-50% off peak house prices, some even joined the 80-90% club.

Is a return to average price/rent/income ratios now possible without completely destroying the economy? Unless the bank losses are continually bailed out by taxpayers and run in zombie mode for a couple of decades, I don't see an alternate path to resolve this.

What do you think the point of no return is ? Would an even bigger bubble been needed to finally break the system?

VMR.

50% from peak is survivable and would return prices to normality. I'm not going to say that 80%-90% is total fantasy (after what's happened in the last 18 months) but outside of the limited edition ultra-bears I don't think there are many who think average prices of £40,000 give or take are likely.

We'll get through it, one way or the other.

Edited by Young Goat

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Wars are caused by central banks.

Depressions are brought in to create/cement the power of central banks.

War is pretty much impossible without a central banks inflationary ability.

The current crisis is all because of the central banks now having reached their exponential limits in a finite world - both in terms of what they can credibly promise for the future and repay from the past. An organised implosion has been arranged, leading to the setting up of something rather similar to what they have now, only starting again at year zero with a clean slate - the theory being we can go back to "the way things were."

Wars need paying for and the kitty is empty.

For now.

hey Injin,

yes, I know we have discussed this many times before & you have said the same thing a few times (above). I initially thought war was a foregone conclusion until you pointed these things out.....

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simple really

who benefits from wars

maybe one day enough people will realise

I suppose there are always war's going on BUT I think we are discussing the possibility of WW3 (although some say we are in it right now)

what are your thoughts ?

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hey Injin,

yes, I know we have discussed this many times before & you have said the same thing a few times (above). I initially thought war was a foregone conclusion until you pointed these things out.....

There is still a lot of hardware knocking about - but wars need paying for.

There is no way to get the taxes needed direct off people, the thefts have to be hidden - inflation being the only real way to do it that people don't notice and can't fight.

What has happened in such times in earlier empire collapses is the pirate gangs the state has been hiring to do it's really dirty work rock up to the capital to get their final payment, before sacking the place, killing the non payers who just ripped them off and retiring overseas.

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... but outside of the limited edition ultra-bears ......

:lol:

I need to get someone to check my **** to see what number is stamped there.

Can you get us from the franklin mint for 24 easy monthly payments of 19.99?

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I suppose there are always war's going on BUT I think we are discussing the possibility of WW3 (although some say we are in it right now)

what are your thoughts ?

the financial war has begun

i think big steps have been taken to remove the dollar as the reserve currency

who knows how the US will react

and resource wars are a high possibility

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the financial war has begun

i think big steps have been taken to remove the dollar as the reserve currency

who knows how the US will react

and resource wars are a high possibility

just pm'd you.....

yes, it would appear that the dollar peg is looking shaky ? although Russia commented that they are basically still happy to keep it, well they would say that wouldn't they. ;)

let's see what they (& others) do, rather than what they say.....eh.

oh, & for everyone else here is my fav pic & link:

pick a number

seymour062001.gif

Edited by grumpy-old-man-returns

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there is no normality as a base-line, simply.

once you get out of this mindset Japan comes into view - decade or more of grinding stagnation

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