Scott Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 Wow, this green shoots recovery is really taking shape now! http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8104546.stm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
babesagainstmachines Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 And your taxes will be paying my BTL mortgages off so I can retire in luxury Nice one, Cyril Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PotNoodle Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 (edited) An interesting article from The Guardian of 12th May :- http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/ma...arch-job-losses For the government, the precedents are not good. In the recession of the early 1980s, unemployment continued to rise for years after the economy stopped shrinking, peaking at 3 million in mid-ÂÂdecade. A rapid reduction in the jobless total during the ill-fated Lawson boom of the late 1980s was followed by another period of rising unemployment in the downturn of the early 1990s. This time, the loss of jobs was crammed into a shorter period of two and a half years but the result was the same. Despite the reforms introduced by Margaret Thatcher to make the labour market more flexible, unemployment again rose to about 3 million before beginning a long, 15-year decline. If history repeats itself - and in economics, it usually does - then unemployment will rise inexorably during 2009, 2010 and possibly into 2011 and 2012. Companies adapt and recover, yes, but one of the principle ways they do so is to shrink and consolidate. House prices simply cannot rise significantly in such conditions. Edited June 17, 2009 by PotNoodle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Posted June 17, 2009 Author Share Posted June 17, 2009 And your taxes will be paying my BTL mortgages off so I can retire in luxuryNice one, Cyril You really are dazed and confused, aren't ya?! Did you walk into one of your To Let signs accidentally? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HAMISH_MCTAVISH Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 House prices simply cannot rise significantly in such conditions. Completely agree. But it doesn't mean they have to fall significantly either...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Number79 Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 Completely agree. But it doesn't mean they have to fall significantly either...... mostly agree but it depends on demographics. If the vauxhall factory at ellesmere port is shut down then houses there will end up being traded in the pub. If firms cut staff, some go bust, some close an office here and there, it just adds to the figures. So long as the figures are not horrific then it won't drive prices down significantly but will certainly be a factor attributed to anything that will. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 If history repeats itself - and in economics, it usually does - then unemployment will rise inexorablyduring 2009, 2010 and possibly into 2011 and 2012. Companies adapt and recover, yes, but one of the principle ways they do so is to shrink and consolidate. House prices simply cannot rise significantly in such conditions. If it does the govt is going to be in huge trouble with shrinking tax revenues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
durhamborn Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 If it does the govt is going to be in huge trouble with shrinking tax revenues. Indeed.The 12.5% deficit was before all this really kicked in.The public finances arent in a mess.They are shot to pieces. Only two outcomes in my mind.Massive QE that turns to direct buying of Government issued gilts,and/or an emergency budget that slashes spending by amounts never imagined. For that to happen wed need a gilts crash as Brown simply wont do it.Hed rather create a 30 year disaster if it means he survives. People seem to think we are stable and it will be all rosy by christmas.They couldnt be more wrong.The big hit is just waiting to be unleashed.It will happen in hours,not months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PotNoodle Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 If it does the govt is going to be in huge trouble with shrinking tax revenues......... ...with which they will struggle to pay back even part of the interest on the gargantuan bail-out debt. Goodbye public spending. Goodbye healthcare. Goodbye education. Goodbye defence. Hello third world britain. (the small cap "b" is deliberate.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
durhamborn Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 Completely agree. But it doesn't mean they have to fall significantly either...... Massive house price falls are only being delayed due to Housing Benefit,LHA and income support for mortgage payments.All will be in the firing line in an emergency budget. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 A drop in western living standards - rather than the end of life as we know it - seems the most logical outcome to meGood post. To me now, the question is : Will this end with a Financial Crash? Or will the US and the Uk get dragged BEYOND FINANCIAL CRASH ("BFC") ? I think : BFC. And that needs some very different preparations than a mere Financial Crash A drop in living standards seems inevitable. Why are you listing just the UK / US for me if we go beyond just a financial collapse everyone will be involved, although the West will be the most affected as we have the most to lose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dredwerker Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 I am an IT contractor and I am getting the odd bone throwed to me due to work I have done in the past and this has been going on for 6 months. There are sometimes 50 people going for a contract and I have heard of 200 by one agent. I have one friend who has just been made redundant and is not signing on and another friend who is living off of savings and is not signing on. This is unprecedented for us. How many more are out there living off of savings or partners etc.. I think this could be big. A quick search on google turned this up: Data to show rise in unemployment36 minutes ago Official figures are expected to show another big increase in the jobless total. The latest employment numbers will be published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) as protesters gather outside Lord Mandelson's Business Department to highlight the rise in the number of young people out of work. Youth Fight for Jobs said the protest in London will mark another expected increase in youth unemployment, which is already more than 16% among the under-25s. Last month the ONS took the highly unusual step of bringing forward the eagerly-awaited publication of the data after revealing that some had been accidentally released early. The figures showed that the number of unemployed people increased by 244,000 over the three months to March to reach 2.22 million, the biggest quarterly rise since 1981. The claimant count was 1.51 million in April, up 57,100 over the previous month and up 710,700 over the year to reach the highest since August 1997. The TUC has predicted that the number of people losing their jobs will carry on increasing until at least the autumn of next year, while the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development believes the public sector will be hit by 350,000 job cuts in the next five years. Redundant workers have only a six-month window to find a job before the stigma of being unemployed kicks in, according to a report also being released on Wednesday. Many employers are less likely to hire someone they consider to be long-term unemployed, according to the Institute of Leadership and Management - although unemployment does not initially carry the stigma that those losing their jobs might fear. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neil324 Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 Not signing on here, living off savings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
helenreed Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 You can add me and two of my mates who are also unemployed but not darkening the Job Centre doors. We are hoping that some work comes our way soon as none of us want to sign on and be led the merry dance that follows. I have applied for several jobs using the jobcentreplus website but never, ever even get an acknowledgement. There are thousands of people who do not sign on and that, combined with the percentage of questionable 'incapacity benefit' claimers, makes these figures completely unreliable. However, knowing how soul destroying the whole system is I totally understand why people choose to be too 'sick' to work. In a couple of months I may be one of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PotNoodle Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 Not signing on here, living off savings. Many who have not been accustomed to unemployment in the past will opt for this. There is precious little point in making a short term claim. Most, I think, will stay independent for a few months, perhaps six ?, before reluctantly becoming part of the system and being head-counted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VeryMeanReversion Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 I lived off savings last time I was made redundant. I signed on after a few months to be able to get enough NI credits for the following year. VMR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joey Buttafueco Jr Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 (edited) Jobless claims change: 39.3k (expected 60k, last 57.1k, revised 49.6k) Claimant count rate: 4.8% (4.9%, 4.7%, 4.6%) Unemployment rate: 7.2% (7.3%, 7.1%, -) Edited June 17, 2009 by Noel Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blankster Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 Just released - is that better or worse than expected. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joey Buttafueco Jr Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 Jobless claims change: 39.3k (expected 60k, last 57.1k, revised 49.6k)Claimant count rate: 4.8% (4.9%, 4.7%, 4.6%) Unemployment rate: 7.2% (7.3%, 7.1%, -) Av earnings inc bonus 0.8% (0.2%,-0.4%, -0.3%) Av earnings ex bonus 2.7% (2.8%,-.3.0%,-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joey Buttafueco Jr Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 Wow, this green shoots recovery is really taking shape now! It would seem that way, unless there are some seasonal adjustments we are unaware of Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lurker07 Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 well, the bbc turned it into a discussion about "green shoots". Imagine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joey Buttafueco Jr Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 Just released - is that better or worse than expected. See other thread Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moo Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 Jobless claims change: 39.3k (expected 60k, last 57.1k, revised 49.6k) Just to be clear... for what period is that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confounded Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 Just released - is that better or worse than expected. What do you think, we are in a climate where everything is better than expected. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joey Buttafueco Jr Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 Just to be clear... for what period is that? May Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.