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Mr Mortgage Warns Forclosure Wave Is Here

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via his new blog, for those who used to follow him on youtube at

http://www.youtube.com/user/markmti

he's now writing here:

http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/blog/

The wave is here even though it did not show up in the aggregate numbers released by RealtyTrac yesterday morning. In their report, CA aggregate foreclosure activity was reported down 4.46%. That is not accurate.

There are three stages of foreclosure, which we track religiously every day. Because each stage is separated by a period of up to 4-months, the mix can change dramatically causing the aggregate to move in the opposite direction of present conditions. Additionally, back in 2008 most servicers all did things the same way at the same time. Now, each bank and servicer has their own agenda so the monthly numbers are much more volatile, which can lead to misinterpretation.

In May, aggregate foreclosure activity was not down 4.6%, rather up 13.5%. On a more granular level, the takeaways are that Notice-of-Trustee Sales are up 100% from Feb to May and subsequent foreclosures are up 75% from March to May - these are significant events.

The chart below shows aggregate foreclosure activity of all three foreclosure stages. The red and yellow lines — Notice-of-Trustee Sales (stage 2) and actual foreclosures (stage 3) respectively — are the wave. In the past three months NTS and foreclosures have surged, as evidenced by the red and yellow growing twice as large. Again, notice-of-Trustee Sales are up 100% from Feb to May and subsequent foreclosures are up 75% from March to May.

new-bar-all-3-stages-1.png

The subsequent foreclosures that come from this latest 6-month NOD surge will hit about the same time a mortgage mod re-default surge from the 2008 NOD surge does. At this point if new NOD’s have leveled out or even fallen by 50%, the re-defaults from bad loan mods made when mods were new and even more reckless than today will keep foreclosures as headlines through next Spring at least.

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via his new blog, for those who used to follow him on youtube at

http://www.youtube.com/user/markmti

he's now writing here:

http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/blog/

The wave is here even though it did not show up in the aggregate numbers released by RealtyTrac yesterday morning. In their report, CA aggregate foreclosure activity was reported down 4.46%. That is not accurate.

There are three stages of foreclosure, which we track religiously every day. Because each stage is separated by a period of up to 4-months, the mix can change dramatically causing the aggregate to move in the opposite direction of present conditions. Additionally, back in 2008 most servicers all did things the same way at the same time. Now, each bank and servicer has their own agenda so the monthly numbers are much more volatile, which can lead to misinterpretation.

In May, aggregate foreclosure activity was not down 4.6%, rather up 13.5%. On a more granular level, the takeaways are that Notice-of-Trustee Sales are up 100% from Feb to May and subsequent foreclosures are up 75% from March to May - these are significant events.

The chart below shows aggregate foreclosure activity of all three foreclosure stages. The red and yellow lines — Notice-of-Trustee Sales (stage 2) and actual foreclosures (stage 3) respectively — are the wave. In the past three months NTS and foreclosures have surged, as evidenced by the red and yellow growing twice as large. Again, notice-of-Trustee Sales are up 100% from Feb to May and subsequent foreclosures are up 75% from March to May.

new-bar-all-3-stages-1.png

The subsequent foreclosures that come from this latest 6-month NOD surge will hit about the same time a mortgage mod re-default surge from the 2008 NOD surge does. At this point if new NOD’s have leveled out or even fallen by 50%, the re-defaults from bad loan mods made when mods were new and even more reckless than today will keep foreclosures as headlines through next Spring at least.

i was expecting wave 2 a little later

0428_clip_image005.jpg

post-2696-1245184028_thumb.jpg

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