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Housing Recovery Is Years Away - By Vedanta Trader

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Great post - should be read by all the hysterical bears (and somewhat smug bulls) who think we've hit the bottom...

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bump for the evening crowd - well worth a read.

For all those caught up in the smog of 'green shoots', this is a great reality check read. Cheers VT :)

Edited by 3 Men In A Boat

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Guest Steve Cook
Here's the KEY part:

"As can be seen in a very weak economy commodities have performed very well indeed. Oil has doubled in 6 months, sugar has doubled, copper, corn, wheat, coffee all up 30-70%. So the money flow seems to be going to where the opportunity is.

Now this is the point I want to make. I think we can all agree that house prices will only rise in a vibrant economy. It is my thought that a price recovery will be nominal and not in real terms. If house prices go up in anyway that resembles a recovery, then be afraid�€�as oil will be at 400 USD, commodities will rise a lot. \

This in my opinion will lead to an inflection point, in that with the CPI moving higher, the central banks will be forced to push up interest rates. However, I think it will be very difficult for the central banks to push rates up. "

= =

Interesting.

I also think that $400 Oil is possible, and have mentioned this target several times.

Not so much recently, however

I also think $400 per barrel is likely at some point in the next decade or so.

At which point our global industrial civilisation collapses.

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I also think $400 per barrel is likely at some point in the next decade or so.

At which point our global industrial civilisation collapses.

May as well get used to it now:

x_troil1.gif

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+1

Top stuff.

And again.

Bump.

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Here's the KEY part:

"As can be seen in a very weak economy commodities have performed very well indeed. Oil has doubled in 6 months, sugar has doubled, copper, corn, wheat, coffee all up 30-70%. So the money flow seems to be going to where the opportunity is.

Now this is the point I want to make. I think we can all agree that house prices will only rise in a vibrant economy. It is my thought that a price recovery will be nominal and not in real terms. If house prices go up in anyway that resembles a recovery, then be afraid�€�as oil will be at 400 USD, commodities will rise a lot. \

This in my opinion will lead to an inflection point, in that with the CPI moving higher, the central banks will be forced to push up interest rates. However, I think it will be very difficult for the central banks to push rates up. "

= =

Interesting.

I also think that $400 Oil is possible, and have mentioned this target several times.

Not so much recently, however

Nuclear Power, clean coal, electric cars and the towel heads can kiss me between the back pockets. They will be lucky to get ten bucks a barrel.

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