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Us Recession Will Be Less Severe Than Feared, Imf Says

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/finance...d-IMF-says.html

In an analysis of the US economy, the IMF now expects that the world's biggest economy will notch growth of 0.75pc in 2010, stronger than its earlier prediction. The contraction in gross domestic product will be 2.5pc this year, less severe than the 2.8pc it expected at the time of its last forecast in April.

In a wide-ranging examination at the American economy, which included praise for the policy response of the Federal Reserve and President Obama's administration, the IMF said that the US can expect a 'gradual' recovery next year.

However, the group's economists also pointed out that the US government will need to address concerns about its mounting budget deficit and the strategies it employs to withdraw the massive stimulus given to the economy.

The missive from the IMF is the latest to confirm that the blitz of monetary and fiscal measures thrown at the economy in the past nine months has prevented the recession from turning into a depression. But even with signs that the data is stabilising, most economists expect unemployment and a weak banking system to prevent a robust recovery.

“The combination of financial strains and ongoing adjustments in the housing and labor markets is expected to restrain growth for some time, with a solid recovery projected to emerge only in mid-2010,†the IMF said today.

The IMF's emphasis on the need to set out policies to rein in the US deficit comes amid concern about whether big creditors, such as China and Japan, will be able to sustain their appetite for US government debt.

“Monetary and fiscal stimulus may stoke concerns about inflation and rising debt, exerting upward pressure on interest rates,†the IMF said.

Yet another report from the IMF, if they predict everything they will get something right eventually.

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/ju...globalrecession

And then from the guardian....

The worst may yet lie ahead for the world economy in the current financial crisis, the head of the International Monetary Fund warned today.

Speaking during a trip to Kazakhstan, Dominique Strauss-Kahn said he largely agreed with the weekend conclusion of finance ministers from the G8 nations that the global economy was showing signs of stabilising after the worst financial crisis since the 1930s.

"Their (G8) stance is that we are beginning to see some green shoots but nevertheless we have to be cautious," he said in opening remarks before closed-door talks with the Kazakh prime minister, Karim Masimov. "The large part of the worst is not yet behind us."

G8 ministers discussed at a meeting in Lecce, Italy, this weekend how to begin withdrawing the extraordinary stimulus they have injected into the world economy in the shape of record low interest rates, big budget deficits and flooding their economies with money.

Strauss-Kahn referred to credit growth as a sign that financial activity was beginning to pick up but did not say whether the IMF was ready to help with a possible "exit strategy" once economic recovery is certain.

Dollar gains

The dollar rose broadly against other currencies today in the wake of the G8 meeting and after Russia said the US currency's role as the world's main reserve currency was unlikely to change in the near future. Russia had last week raised the idea of moving some of its reserves out of US treasury securities.

The CBI warned today that Britain's recovery will be delayed until 2010, and cast doubt on the view increasingly held in the City that recent "green shoots" of recovery mean the recession is all but over.

Richard Lambert, the CBI director general, said the UK would suffer from the worsening of the world recession, which would continue to limit lending by banks and drag down consumer spending in the UK's export markets.

Separately, Eurostat reported that eurozone employment plunged by a record 0.8%, or 1.22 million people, in the first quarter from the fourth quarter of 2008. That was twice the drop seen in the fourth quarter and the third successive quarterly drop in employment.

As a result, eurozone employment was down by 1.2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2009. All of the major eurozone economies suffered employment declines in the first quarter, particularly Spain.

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I'm beginning to think that mainstream economists just take a ruler to the last few months of a thing and extrapolate it forward to infinity.

It's quite sweet really.

A trick learnt from climate scientists (so they ought to be predicting a new Ice Age shortly :lol: )

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A trick learnt from climate scientists (so they ought to be predicting a new Ice Age shortly :lol: )

How long till we are offered "climate change we can believe in"? Then the lies really start. In fact if you look t the words that have come out of government and central banks the way to read it is not just just ignore the words and watch the action it is actually to regards the exact opposite of what is being said as most likely being the truth.

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How long till we are offered "climate change we can believe in"? Then the lies really start. In fact if you look t the words that have come out of government and central banks the way to read it is not just just ignore the words and watch the action it is actually to regards the exact opposite of what is being said as most likely being the truth.

Wasn't that what the Politburo did?

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Bloo Loo will be after you.

I think Durch is my busiest BLOO LOO Predictor kit Agent.

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