Why Do Rinoa & Co Keep Ramping The Market

[Sybil13]

I might regret putting myself in the firing line yet again but can someone explain why Rinoa & co can see any "green shoots" in latest stats etc.?

Rinoas BIGGY at the mo' is that :

New mortgage approvals went up 16% in April

Yet:

The CML, whose members are banks, building societies and other lenders who together undertake around 98 in every 100 mortgages, said 35,600 loans for house purchases were granted during the month.

While an improvement on the March figures, however, the number of home loans granted in April was down 28 per cent on the same month last year.

Those loans totalled £4.5 billion — which was also up 16 per cent on the total for March — although the total value was down 40 per cent on April last year

However, the sharpest increase in home loans granted was for people moving property rather than to first-time buyers, who are generally regarded as providing the foundation for any sustained growth in housing activity

The data also provides evidence that mortgage lenders are continuing to apply tougher lending criteria. The average loan to value for loans to home-movers was 67 per cent — down from 72 per cent in April last year and even down on the March figure of 70 per cent — while lenders were only prepared to lend an average of just 2.63 times a borrower’s income. That compares with an average multiple of 2.97 times incomes in April last year.

Bob Pannell, the CML’s head of research, said that, despite the improvement in April, housing market activity was still “very low†by historical standards.

He pointed out that the 35,600 home loans granted in April compared with an average of 88,000 loans during April in the last seven years.

The CML themselves have said that the "green shoots have no roots", and last week said:

"It looks almost inevitable that May approvals will be higher than a year ago for the first time since early 2007. However, activity remains at extremely low levels on any historic comparison – and weaker than at any point in the early 1990s. Limited lending capacity and the impact of further job losses are likely to act as a ceiling for how far the improvement can continue, although there could be further modest rises in the coming months."

So why would ANYONE let alone Rinoa think that these figures equal RECOVERY?

Merryn Somerset Webb in her article "Stay Away From Property It Has a Lot Further to Fall" said:

.......Let's start with the mortgage approval numbers. Yes, they are up. But not much. The long-term average since the series began in 1993 is 94,000 a month. So 38,000, a number that is 40% down on last year, is not very encouraging. Much the same can be said of the number of products available: 3,091 might sound like a lot but it is still 80% fewer than this time last year and 30% fewer than even in December. It hardly suggests a return to the days of the easy credit, which drove the bubble in the first place. (YESTERDAY IT WAS CONFIRMED THERE ARE 97% FEWER MORTGAGE AVAILABLE NOW FOR FTB'S)

......The truth is that all real bear markets tend to offer the unwary investor one last opportunity to lose money. The summer of 2009 is probably that opportunity this time round.

There may well be a quite a big pick up in inquiries, transactions and even prices over the next few months. This will be partly down to the fact that, for those who have cash and want to buy at some point, the housing bear market is getting boring – and partly because a lot of property looks cheap relative to its peak price.

But the basic market conditions are still all wrong for recovery

Yet McTavish said :

Merryn Somerset Webb is an ugly, odious, crash ramping little attention whore.

Scum of the earth.

He said this despite McTavish saying with regards current so called "green shoots" :

This is a blip. There are further, although much smaller, falls to go over next winter. 30% off peak, when we had already reached 22%, seems reasonable. Could just as easily be 25%. Or 35% if some new liquidity crisis comes along before then.

Which is hardly bullish is it? £300000 property 35% fall equals £195000, and he himself admits they will take years to recover.

Yet Rinoa posted about McTavish and himself :

I said both he and I were more accurate than the muppets Sybil quotes

"Muppets" being BOE / CML etc etc..

Rinoa for weeks and weeks and weeks posted thread after thread after thread about lenders offering 90% mortgages yet the past few days all we have heard is how difficult it is to qualify for these and about interest rates rising,seeming to suggest that the "muppets" I quote might just know a thing or 2 after all.

...lenders are slashing and burning their mortgage product ranges and rates, leaving borrowers with less choice than ever.

................A Sunday Times investigation found that in April, HSBC cut rates for borrowers with deposits of just 10% but admitted last week that of the 12,000 applications above 75% of the property purchase price, only one in five borrowers received funding.

First-time buyers who want to get on the housing ladder have seen the number of mortgages available to those without a large deposit slump by 97% over the last two and a half years, according to new research released today.

.................Rates have also started rising after a year of falls. Yesterday, a number of big lenders put up the cost of their fixed-rate mortgages and experts suggest other lenders will follow suit...........

.......Ray Boulger, of mortgage broker John Charcol, said the increase in price had been driven by a lack of competition and by new rules under which lenders have to set aside more capital to cover high loan-to-value mortgages. "The cost to the lender of making one 90% LTV loan available can be four or five times the cost of offering a mortgage at 60% LTV," he said. "We're in a situation where the more lending a lender does at 90% the less lending they are able to do overall."

And this week we have had more confirmation of chains breaking as Surveyors Put In Realistic Valuations

And Homebuyers Left High and Dry as Mortgage offers are Cancelled

We have heard that despite funding already being down nearly 2/3rds on 2007 :

The BSA’s Adrian Coles reckons “it is quite conceivable that lending will fall this year†as funding evaporates. It is already happening.

I know Rinoa & Co can quote a load of ramping articles about the economy but at the end of the day NONE of it adds up does it, usually not even within the article so why do they keep posting on HPC?

[Y-QUERK]

Try going on a science forum and try convincing everyone that the Bible is an accurate record of history. Its great fun, especially if you're persistent and not easily dismissed.

[cashinmattress]

Because they are haemorrhaging equity.

[Harry Monk]

What I can't understand is that it is in Rinoa and Co's interest to get the crash out of the way as quickly as possible so their trade can return to normal. All they are trying to do is prolong the agony, not that it will have any effect whatsoever because you simply cannot buck the market.

[Frank Hovis]

Because they are haemorrhaging equity.

Absolutely. And as the loss would be too much to take (both finanically and for reasons of personal pride) they want to find ways of pretending that it isn't real. One way is to type this into a message board as then you can at least see it in writing, even if everybody else is sniggering.

[piece of paper]

................................................................................

..................

I know Rinoa & Co can quote a load of ramping articles about the economy but at the end of the day NONE of it adds up does it, usually not even within the article so why do they keep posting on HPC?

The Samaritans now have caller ID.

p-o-p

[Bloo Loo]

Oh bear of little brain...the reason is obvious.

They all live under a bridge, and they dont want to share their bridge with anyone else.

they want to own all the bridges and make it impossible for anyone else to buy one.

and of course, if no-one else can afford their bridge....they are the RICHEST and most respectedest and powerfulest bridge owners in the world.

shame they will die of starvation though.

[HAMISH_MCTAVISH]

Absolutely. And as the loss would be too much to take (both finanically and for reasons of personal pride) they want to find ways of pretending that it isn't real. One way is to type this into a message board as then you can at least see it in writing, even if everybody else is sniggering.

According to the Register of Scotland......

Aberdeen average house price Jan 07 = £149,000 (when I bought the most recent property)

Aberdeen average house price April 09 = £153,000 (today)

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...st&id=14983

IS there a word for the opposite of "haemorraging"????? Thats not even a loss. It's a straight gain.

I would however have been "haemorraging" money had I rented since then. Almost £30K to date, and counting.....

Edited June 14, 2009 by HAMISH_MCTAVISH

[Giordano Bruno]

What I can't understand is that it is in Rinoa and Co's interest to get the crash out of the way as quickly as possible so their trade can return to normal. All they are trying to do is prolong the agony, not that it will have any effect whatsoever because you simply cannot buck the market.

This is true, I believe. This crash has to run its course before sensible prices return, then the recollection of the crash fades, and then the next bubble starts. Only then will there be sustained rises in real terms. The rampers are just delaying this process.

[ʎqɐqɹǝʞɐɥs]

Because they are haemorrhaging equity.

And extremely bitter and twisted about it. I don't know why you guys let these over leveraged muppets wind you up hook line and sinker.

[Tin Foil Hat]

Anecdotal green shoot - local EA (Essex/London border) sold 6 last week; previous was the average nationally of one a week.

I'm not a bull so don't shoot the messenger.

TFH

[Jimmy2Times]

I might regret putting myself in the firing line yet again but can someone explain why Rinoa & co can see any "green shoots" in latest stats etc.?

Facts are facts, mortgage approvals are up like it or not!!!!, the other day I passed a sign that said it is forbidden to throw stones at this sign, mmmm, why have it, it encourages you to do just that. See my point, dont write crap and noone will throw stones at you.

Now back to my padded cell to read my copy of "How to wind up friends and ***s off people"

[Bloo Loo]

Anecdotal green shoot - local EA (Essex/London border) sold 6 last week; previous was the average nationally of one a week.

I'm not a bull so don't shoot the messenger.

TFH

Sold, ie, yes please, Ill take it mr EA.

or

SSTC ie, yes please, Ill take it mr EA, now all we need is a mortgage valuation and my own house sold.

green shoot? where is the production capacity?

[the flying pig]

just because they've got the strongest imaginable vested interest. all will lose their shirt [and quite probably everything else from neckwear to undercrackers] if house price falls resume.

in autumn 2007 the big talking point was northern rock - the bulls then were insisting that failure of NR represented the bears' only glimmer of hope and that if the govt decided to go ahead with a bail-out then the poor old bears would have to face up to another 10 years of rampant growth, being priced out, etc etc etc.

nearly two years on, and with prices back to mid 2004 levels, they've all had to re-register in order to block the 'open goal' of them being reminded of the shite they were spouting back in the day, but they're still desperately scrabbling around for any small piece of evidence to hang their hats on...

[OzzMosiz]

According to the Register of Scotland......

Aberdeen average house price Jan 07 = �149,000 (when I bought the most recent property)

Aberdeen average house price April 09 = �153,000 (today)

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...st&id=14983

IS there a word for the opposite of "haemorraging"????? Thats not even a loss. It's a straight gain.

I would however have been "haemorraging" money had I rented since then. Almost �30K to date, and counting.....

Putting 149K in the bank would've yielded more profit! Oh but you don't OWN your house do you?

[libspero]

I would however have been "haemorraging" money had I rented since then. Almost �30K to date, and counting.....

I wouldn't want to rent from you

[Rinoa]

I might regret putting myself in the firing line yet again but can someone explain why Rinoa & co can see any "green shoots" in latest stats etc.?

Rinoas BIGGY at the mo' is that :

New mortgage approvals went up 16% in April

No, I didn't say that. I said that mortgage loans had gone up by 16%.

It's important to stress the difference, otherwise Blue Fido will jump in and make totally inaccurate comments about approvals.

It's always a puzzle to me why bears can't accept that a recovery will take time. If transactions took a year to fall to their lows, it's reasonable to expect the same timescales when the market returns.

We've had 6 months of rising transactions. And next month transactions will be higher than last year. What will you post then?

Edited June 14, 2009 by Rinoa

[darwin]

Putting 149K in the bank would've yielded more profit! Oh but you don't OWN your house do you?

Hamish hasn't factored in the costs associated with buying property and the costs of servicing the mortgage, if you have to have one.

Isn't it amusing how he thinks he's up on the deal? You know, that's IF the price of it has actually risen by £4k over the last couple of years - I suppose I could look up the numbers but I really cannot be bothered to verify it.

You'd have to have nerves of steel to have bought in January 2007 though.

[Bloo Loo]

No, I didn't say that. I said that mortgage loans had gone up by 16%.

It's important to stress the difference, otherwise Blue Fido will jump in and make totally inaccurate comments about approvals.

It's always a puzzle to me why bears can't accept that a recovery will take time. If transactions took a year to fall to their lows, it's reasonable to expect the same timescales when the market returns.

We've had 6 months of rising transactions. And next month transactions will be higher than last year. What will you post then?

approvals are not loans.

Sold subject to contract are NOT sales.

UK, the land of broken chains.

Even the BoE say that NOW 1.1m are in neg eq. NOW means that either, mortgages are rising, OR house prices are falling.

[HAMISH_MCTAVISH]

Putting 149K in the bank would've yielded more profit!

I'm sorry, is not all you bears that keep saying a "house is for living in" and shouldn't be subject to short term buying/selling for speculative gain??????

So your entire argument boils down to "I admit you made money, but with the benefit of hindsight you could have made more doing something else"....

Nice.

Oh but you don't OWN your house do you?

I own one of them free and clear, I have a mortgage on another.

[Rinoa]

approvals are not loans.

Sold subject to contract are NOT sales.

UK, the land of broken chains.

Even the BoE say that NOW 1.1m are in neg eq. NOW means that either, mortgages are rising, OR house prices are falling.

The CML loans, that have risen 16%, are not approvals, they are completed sales.

Are you being deliberately stupid?

Maybe you've got distemper.

[HAMISH_MCTAVISH]

The CML loans, that have risen 16%, are not approvals, they are completed sales.

Are you being deliberately stupid?

Maybe you've got distemper.

Or Rabies...... He foams at the mouth and loses control of his bodily functions every time someone mentions green shoots.....

[Bloo Loo]

The CML loans, that have risen 16%, are not approvals, they are completed sales.

Are you being deliberately stupid?

Maybe you've got distemper.

They just said LOANS didnt say agreed or completed or anything.

they also said this:

"But for those without substantial deposits, entering the market is still both difficult and uncertain. While there are some signs of demand increasing, house prices remain weak and lending criteria inevitably remain inherently conservative as lenders necessarily seek to rebuild their capital position."

not only that, its a survey... "monthly lending survey from the Council of Mortgage Lenders".

any banking rampers want to look good when negotiating overnight rates? fluff the surveys.

Edited June 14, 2009 by Bloo Loo

[Peter Hun]

No amount of ******** will make banks lend enough money to get the market going up for several years

[HAMISH_MCTAVISH]

No amount of ******** will make banks lend enough money to get the market going up for several years

Strange, I could have sworn the latest indices show it going up now.....

Edited June 14, 2009 by HAMISH_MCTAVISH