Guest absolutezero Posted June 14, 2009 Share Posted June 14, 2009 Oh dear, bulls.... http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/pro...et=0&page=1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashinmattress Posted June 14, 2009 Share Posted June 14, 2009 That's a nugget that a lot on here overlook. Every pound in the bankers pocket is one less for you, after all. This is Britain. Same as it ever was. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mega Posted June 14, 2009 Share Posted June 14, 2009 Yes, i think we come to the end of the elestic band......................its inflation from here on. GOODY! Hopfully we have a Tory Gov with NO TAX on Savings if your a basic tax payer. That plus what i suspect will be nice & high rates should do nicely Mike Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest absolutezero Posted June 14, 2009 Share Posted June 14, 2009 Come on Rinoa, Valerius, Hamish et al. I want your opinion on this. It's been up for 2 hours, why no comment? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InternationalRockSuperstar Posted June 14, 2009 Share Posted June 14, 2009 Hopfully we have a Tory Gov with NO TAX on Savings if your a basic tax payer. That plus what i suspect will be nice & high rates should do nicely Mike I'm sure savings rates will be nagative in real terms no matter what happens. same old. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiveAndLetBuy Posted June 14, 2009 Share Posted June 14, 2009 The article would have a lot more credibility if the so called "experts" it refers to, who are advising people to take out fixed rate deals "before it's too late", didn't happen to all be mortgage brokers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HAMISH_MCTAVISH Posted June 14, 2009 Share Posted June 14, 2009 Come on Rinoa, Valerius, Hamish et al. I want your opinion on this. It's been up for 2 hours, why no comment? HA, can't believe I missed this one. Are you seriously trying to portray this article as a bearish sign???? We've been warning you rates would rise as the recovery firms up, and that the best deals, and the best rates, would only be available before the market turned, not after it. From the article..... Lenders are blaming a sharp rise in the cost of funding mortgages in the money markets, where rates have risen as the City becomes more optimistic about a recovery. City becoming more optimistic about a recovery, that sound very bearish........ Still, maybe theres some good news in those rising rates for all those little saving bears, eh??? Oh.... Wait...... The rapid change in the outlook for rates came as the National Institute of Economic and Social Research declared last week that the recession probably ended in March, with economic growth rising slightly in April and May. Yet while mortgage rates are going up, savings rates are falling, as banks target other ways to boost their margins. On Friday, Marks & Spencer became the latest institution to cut its Isa rates. Its Advantage Cash Isa was reduced by 0.60% points to 2.50%. Oh dear, thats not very good for bears....... Must be something to console the poor little things somewhere in the article. Oh thats right, here it is..... Deals as low as 4.5% are still available but they are expected to disappear fast. Ouch..... Best hurry up then. An extra couple of points over 5 or 10 years would completely wipe out an awful lot of savings from cheaper prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crash2006 Posted June 14, 2009 Share Posted June 14, 2009 going to be like this for a few good years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leveller Posted June 14, 2009 Share Posted June 14, 2009 HA, can't believe I missed this one.Are you seriously trying to portray this article as a bearish sign???? We've been warning you rates would rise as the recovery firms up, and that the best deals, and the best rates, would only be available before the market turned, not after it. From the article..... Lenders are blaming a sharp rise in the cost of funding mortgages in the money markets, where rates have risen as the City becomes more optimistic about a recovery. City becoming more optimistic about a recovery, that sound very bearish........ Still, maybe theres some good news in those rising rates for all those little saving bears, eh??? Oh.... Wait...... The rapid change in the outlook for rates came as the National Institute of Economic and Social Research declared last week that the recession probably ended in March, with economic growth rising slightly in April and May. Yet while mortgage rates are going up, savings rates are falling, as banks target other ways to boost their margins. On Friday, Marks & Spencer became the latest institution to cut its Isa rates. Its Advantage Cash Isa was reduced by 0.60% points to 2.50%. Oh dear, thats not very good for bears....... Must be something to console the poor little things somewhere in the article. Oh thats right, here it is..... Deals as low as 4.5% are still available but they are expected to disappear fast. Ouch..... Best hurry up then. An extra couple of points over 5 or 10 years would completely wipe out an awful lot of savings from cheaper prices. You've been warning us that rates will rise?! So you think rising rates will help houses become more affordable? Debt is wealth to aspire to, especially if you got to pay more for it? And the best / cheapest mortgage deals are disappearing - this is good for house affordability? Where can I play this game, of how to win a nice big fat mortgage? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sour Mash Posted June 14, 2009 Share Posted June 14, 2009 HA, can't believe I missed this one.Are you seriously trying to portray this article as a bearish sign???? For house prices - most definitely yes. Or are you seriously expecting anyone to think that rising interest rates on mortgages will push prices up? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HAMISH_MCTAVISH Posted June 14, 2009 Share Posted June 14, 2009 You've been warning us that rates will rise?! Yes indeed. I've been warning for a while that the best mortgage deals will be had before the market turns, not after it. So you think rising rates will help houses become more affordable?Debt is wealth to aspire to, especially if you got to pay more for it? I think prices will start rising within the next 12 months regardless of whether or not rates rise by a few percent. And the best / cheapest mortgage deals are disappearing - this is good for house affordability? For affordability? Over the term of the loan? Clearly not. Mortgage buyers from now on may end up paying vastly more for their house than buyers of a month or two ago before rates rose, even if prices do fall a little more next winter. Cash buyers have little to fear as of yet, as it's likely that prices will still be within a few points of today a year from now, but it's starting to look like mortgage buyers have alreaady missed the boat. Those "early bird" bears that bought earlier this year on long term fixes are starting to look like very smart bears indeed.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HAMISH_MCTAVISH Posted June 14, 2009 Share Posted June 14, 2009 For house prices - most definitely yes.Or are you seriously expecting anyone to think that rising interest rates on mortgages will push prices up? Are you seriously expecting anyone to believe that 6% retail rates will deter a recovery? They didn't deter the boom.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mew too Posted June 14, 2009 Share Posted June 14, 2009 Oh dear, bulls....http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/pro...et=0&page=1 Interesting that this article should come along now... The U.S 10 Year treasury has been dropping from approx 125 in January, to hit a low just below 113 last week, I believe the UK Gilt has performed a similar plunge. For anyone that doesnt follow bond markets, prices dropping translates to rising interest rates as prices and yeilds are inversely correlated. A bounce from 113 since middle of the week to over 114 is beginning to look like a reversal to me. Bonds have been dropping for best part of 6 months, and have put in what appears to be a low, then the financial press start with articles calling for end of cheap fixes. My money is on lower rates from here. Lower rates in response to deflation should equal lower house prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twatmangle Posted June 14, 2009 Share Posted June 14, 2009 Oh dear, bulls....http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/pro...et=0&page=1 Well, I've just got a mortgage approved at 4.5%, fixed for 5 years. Now to piss it all away buying a house. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InternationalRockSuperstar Posted June 14, 2009 Share Posted June 14, 2009 Yes indeed. I've been warning for a while that the best mortgage deals will be had before the market turns I agree - the best rates will be had before the bond market turns. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted June 14, 2009 Share Posted June 14, 2009 Are you seriously expecting anyone to believe that 6% retail rates will deter a recovery? They didn't deter the boom.... At which period over say the last 5 years have base rates ever been at 6%? In the US when the base rate approached this level the whole subprime mess imploded and triggered this entire crash. I think your being a bit optimistic if you think current prices can be sustained at 6%, for the recovery to be sustainable you need lower prices so the debt can remain serviceable unless of course you live in La La Land. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meedge Posted June 14, 2009 Share Posted June 14, 2009 HA, can't believe I missed this one.Are you seriously trying to portray this article as a bearish sign???? We've been warning you rates would rise as the recovery firms up, and that the best deals, and the best rates, would only be available before the market turned, not after it. From the article..... Lenders are blaming a sharp rise in the cost of funding mortgages in the money markets, where rates have risen as the City becomes more optimistic about a recovery. City becoming more optimistic about a recovery, that sound very bearish........ Still, maybe theres some good news in those rising rates for all those little saving bears, eh??? Oh.... Wait...... The real reason for the spread between short term and long term yield changing is due to the bond market starting to seriously question the ability of the Government to repay its debt (and its apparent solution of default through inflation). The increasing spread represents a rising risk premium reflected in compensation in a higher rate. Rates will continue to go up in the UK and US and both are now in the hellish position of having no real control over the bond rates at all (not that they really had much) since not performing QE leads to straight default and performing QE leads to inflationary default, both mean higher rates, but the current path means excessively high rates in the future. Ironically, there are still strong deflationary forces at work which with higher rates could bite at exactly at the time that the US policy of pumping supply side inflation (comodity price explosion) as a means to force inflation because its the only way they can get printed money into the real economy. We are potentially at the edge of something very nasty.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOP Posted June 14, 2009 Share Posted June 14, 2009 (edited) The real reason for the spread between short term and long term yield changing is due to the bond market starting to seriously question the ability of the Government to repay its debt (and its apparent solution of default through inflation). The increasing spread represents a rising risk premium reflected in compensation in a higher rate. Rates will continue to go up in the UK and US and both are now in the hellish position of having no real control over the bond rates at all (not that they really had much) since not performing QE leads to straight default and performing QE leads to inflationary default, both mean higher rates, but the current path means excessively high rates in the future. Ironically, there are still strong deflationary forces at work which with higher rates could bite at exactly at the time that the US policy of pumping supply side inflation (comodity price explosion) as a means to force inflation because its the only way they can get printed money into the real economy. We are potentially at the edge of something very nasty.... This kind of post goes over the heads of most of the bulls on here TBH. You don't post enough meedge. Keep up the good work! Edited June 14, 2009 by MOP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashinmattress Posted June 14, 2009 Share Posted June 14, 2009 The real reason for the spread between short term and long term yield changing is due to the bond market starting to seriously question the ability of the Government to repay its debt (and its apparent solution of default through inflation). The increasing spread represents a rising risk premium reflected in compensation in a higher rate. Rates will continue to go up in the UK and US and both are now in the hellish position of having no real control over the bond rates at all (not that they really had much) since not performing QE leads to straight default and performing QE leads to inflationary default, both mean higher rates, but the current path means excessively high rates in the future.Ironically, there are still strong deflationary forces at work which with higher rates could bite at exactly at the time that the US policy of pumping supply side inflation (comodity price explosion) as a means to force inflation because its the only way they can get printed money into the real economy. We are potentially at the edge of something very nasty.... Max Keiser has been calling this one for a long time. This recent discovery of the 'counterfeit' bonds in Italy raises an eerie spectre for all us Westerners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HAMISH_MCTAVISH Posted June 14, 2009 Share Posted June 14, 2009 At which period over say the last 5 years have base rates ever been at 6%?In the US when the base rate approached this level the whole subprime mess imploded and triggered this entire crash. You do realise I said retail rates, not base? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
threetimesdead Posted June 14, 2009 Share Posted June 14, 2009 You do realise I said retail rates, not base? Wholesale rates rule the market - my dear economist Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
libspero Posted June 14, 2009 Share Posted June 14, 2009 This kind of post goes over the heads of most of the bulls on here TBH. You don't post enough meedge. Keep up the good work! Bond yields rising, long term lending costs following.. doesn't seem to be a good indicator that now is the time to get into debt, especially to buy assets. Higher borrowing costs.. fewer buyers.. lower prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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