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Gideon Gono

Another Question For The Bears.....

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Hamish. You have said before that the next boom would be huge, and make this one look 'tiny in comparison'.

I am sure those were your actual word. Shame the search facility is so piss.

So now you are saying we are going to have very small rises for the next decade or so ?

When is the mega boom going to occur then :blink:

ccc: here it is - LINK - using google advanced search outside the forum.

Theres no maybe, could or possibly about it.

It is absolutely 100% guaranteed.

The next bubble will make the last one look tiny by comparison.

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Autumn 2010

And FWIW here's a quote on the 'freedom' of owning your own home and being in negative equity:

tried to refinance back in April, but I was told not to waste my money starting the paperwork. I would have to have my home appraise at almost $90,000 to avoid paying PMI.

Meanwhile, similar homes to mine sell in the $60,000 range.

While most folks make a business decision to walk away, morally to me I don't believe in it. My issue is one I am sure a lot of folks are facing. I need to move and cannot. It's one of the worse feelings in the world to be trapped literally and unable to do anything about it.

I'd hate to be trapped in a home I'd paid too much for; a daily reminder of my own financial idiocy....

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ccc: here it is - LINK - using google advanced search outside the forum.

Cheers. Seems Hamish is confused.

Or maybe he is just coming round to reality. :o

If that is true I am turning bull ASAP !!

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To the original OP this is tricky.

If this bull trap / dead cat bounce (what ever you want to call it) lasts a few months then the BoE may begin to raise later this year (October perhaps).

However, when the real recession kicks in there will be no chance or raises for a good while, well at least until the UK government bond auctions fail. ;).

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Hamish. You have said before that the next boom would be huge, and make this one look 'tiny in comparison'.

Yes.

So now you are saying we are going to have very small rises for the next decade or so ?

When is the mega boom going to occur then :blink:

Rises for most of the next decade will probably be small and incremental. 2% to 5% for a year or two, and then 4% to 9% per year for as long as a decade. It will be a few years before we see 2007 prices as a national average, obviously, some places will reach them long before others, and the biggest part of the boom, the double digit annual climbs, will probably not start for a decade.

The next boom will be huge, and will make the last look tiny in comparison. But I never said the biggest gains would happen this year.... :rolleyes:

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Yes.

Rises for most of the next decade will probably be small and incremental. 2% to 5% for a year or two, and then 4% to 9% per year for as long as a decade. It will be a few years before we see 2007 prices as a national average, obviously, some places will reach them long before others, and the biggest part of the boom, the double digit annual climbs, will probably not start for a decade.

The next boom will be huge, and will make the last look tiny in comparison. But I never said the biggest gains would happen this year.... :rolleyes:

You're right Hamish. The next boom is going to be unfathomable in it's magnitude. An average house will be 10x average income in the next one.

They aren't making any more land, making plenty more people, and printing money.

It's a one way bet.

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You're right Hamish. The next boom is going to be unfathomable in it's magnitude. An average house will be 10x average income in the next one.

They aren't making any more land, making plenty more people, and printing money.

It's a one way bet.

forget it, houses will only be for the top 10% of earners, making flats 20 to 30 times average wage.

Its good for the country dontchaknow.

course banks wont be lending that, you will be able to get 80% of your deposit from the homebuy scheme...just make sure you are a keyworker.....and thats everyone as we will ALL be working for the government..comrade.

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Lots of talk of rates rising in here.

Q) Which month of which year does the BOE make its first .25bp rise to the base rate?

Lots of us on trackers in here. Im curious to know the feeling.

I see the hyperinflation TFH's have disappeared. Lets see if one of you can actually give an answer this time.

Two months after the General Election.

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forget it, houses will only be for the top 10% of earners.

Now you're getting there......

Houses are already for the top 70% of earners. Roughly the bottom earning 30% already live in social/council housing. And the average LTI ratio for actual purchasers never crossed 3.5 times income even at peak.

As population increases, so does the absolute numbers of people within the top earning percentages of society. In the future, top 60% or top 50% seems likely, which may well be more people in numerical terms than the top 70% today.

Prices will rise eventually, unless we build a lot more houses before population growth, instead of after. Chances of that happening? Zero.

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Now you're getting there......

Houses are already for the top 70% of earners. Roughly the bottom earning 30% already live in social/council housing. And the average LTI ratio for actual purchasers never crossed 3.5 times income even at peak.

As population increases, so does the absolute numbers of people within the top earning percentages of society. In the future, top 60% or top 50% seems likely, which may well be more people in numerical terms than the top 70% today.

Prices will rise eventually, unless we build a lot more houses before population growth, instead of after. Chances of that happening? Zero.

In that situation the council would need to find housing for the other 50% of the population. To do this they would need to compete with the top 50% of earners for the houses. Where on earth are they going to get the money for that? Massive tax hikes on top of the ones already required to pay off our ever increasing national debt?

Seems crazy.. especially when they are practically having to give city centre flats away.

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In that situation the council would need to find housing for the other 50% of the population. To do this they would need to compete with the top 50% of earners for the houses. Where on earth are they going to get the money for that? Massive tax hikes on top of the ones already required to pay off our ever increasing national debt?

Seems crazy.. especially when they are practically having to give city centre flats away.

the dick is assuming that as a population increases, the percentages of each income level all stay the same.

I wonder how many kilowatts of brainpower has been wasted on this waster?

He is on my ignore list... he should be on everybody's... I know I am.

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In that situation the council would need to find housing for the other 50% of the population. To do this they would need to compete with the top 50% of earners for the houses. Where on earth are they going to get the money for that? Massive tax hikes on top of the ones already required to pay off our ever increasing national debt?

Seems crazy.. especially when they are practically having to give city centre flats away.

Why expect the council to provide for the bottom 50%? There will no doubt be an expansion of private rentals as well, particularly given the attitude on here that renting is such a great option!!!! :lol:

Councils are unlikely to build much more housing. They'll simply pay rent to the private sector to do so. Or maybe they should just buy those city centre flats now whilst they can... ;)

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Now you're getting there......

Houses are already for the top 70% of earners. Roughly the bottom earning 30% already live in social/council housing. And the average LTI ratio for actual purchasers never crossed 3.5 times income even at peak.

That's irrelevant to using LTI as a marker. Using mean salary is easier than using actual buyer salary. There is a correlation because excluding the very few super rich the average distribution of income is reasonably static at least over the last half century or so. Therefore mean salary is proportional to actual purchaser salary.

As population increases, so does the absolute numbers of people within the top earning percentages of society. In the future, top 60% or top 50% seems likely, which may well be more people in numerical terms than the top 70% today.

give me one good reason why this should be the case ie why does population growth lead to more high paying jobs - where does the extra money come from? Also give me a reason why population will continue to increase? The primary increase in population in the last twenty years has been due to immigration. There is no reason to believe that this has to continue to be the case. The birthrate amongst British Citizens is IIRC below replacement rate.

Prices will rise eventually, unless we build a lot more houses before population growth, instead of after. Chances of that happening? Zero.

It may be that we are going back to the days of the landed gentry and everyone renting. I doubt it personally.

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Why expect the council to provide for the bottom 50%? There will no doubt be an expansion of private rentals as well, particularly given the attitude on here that renting is such a great option!!!! :lol:

Councils are unlikely to build much more housing. They'll simply pay rent to the private sector to do so. Or maybe they should just buy those city centre flats now whilst they can... ;)

Ealing Council put fliers in maiboxes asking if you are private landlord and have a property to rent...... to them!

Councils arent building properties and if they are its crappy new builds with paper thin walls designed to last 50 years.

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Ealing Council put fliers in maiboxes asking if you are private landlord and have a property to rent...... to them!

Councils arent building properties and if they are its crappy new builds with paper thin walls designed to last 50 years.

no they didnt

and no they arent. they use HAs which have a higher standard of build than would be allowed for a newbuild OO.

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Why expect the council to provide for the bottom 50%? There will no doubt be an expansion of private rentals as well, particularly given the attitude on here that renting is such a great option!!!! :lol:

Councils are unlikely to build much more housing. They'll simply pay rent to the private sector to do so. Or maybe they should just buy those city centre flats now whilst they can... ;)

Ok, so let me rephrase:

How are councils going to pay the rents that they will be competing with 50% earners for? Also, if 50% of people aren't council housed in this environment, but also can't afford rents because you need to be a 50% earner.. where will they live? Or are you suggesting that renting would be cheaper than owning and landlords would subsdise their tenants?

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the dick is assuming that as a population increases, the percentages of each income level all stay the same.

I wonder how many kilowatts of brainpower has been wasted on this waster?

He is on my ignore list... he should be on everybody's... I know I am.

I have considered putting the bulls on my ignore list.. presently it is only Sibley.

It just seems that someone should fight the good fight (although I notice increasingly most people don't seem to bother.. just you and me!)

Will see. I might take a break and try the sub/alternative forums for a while instead.

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Q) Which month of which year does the BOE make its first .25bp rise to the base rate?

Rates tend to go up and down in increments of 0.25% or 25bp. I don't think they'd ever change them by 0.25bp.

What matter is not so much what the base rate is but how much money the BoE makes available at that rate. i.e. the BoE is rationing money rather than raising the price of it. Money is now cheap, but they won't give much out. The BoE know what they're doing is just frigging about with derivatives and trackers that are linked to headline rates.

And 25bp is just for sentiment. The 1bp will be substantial.

I'd give it until just after the next election for rates to rise 25bp. If they wanted to they don't need to change rates, just change supply of money.

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To answer OP's original question - December 2009

and Gordon will present it as a Christmas gift (implying from government) to all the hard working families who have been saving.

Nob, wainker, cretin

Edited by sleepless

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I have considered putting the bulls on my ignore list.. presently it is only Sibley.

I would never put Sibley on ignore. He humours me so ;)

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Lots of talk of rates rising in here.

Q) Which month of which year does the BOE make its first .25bp rise to the base rate?

Lots of us on trackers in here. Im curious to know the feeling.

I see the hyperinflation TFH's have disappeared. Lets see if one of you can actually give an answer this time.

And this proves what exactly?

You come here demanding answers from others without giving your own opinion or its justification. Lets hear what you've got to say oh mighty smiter - and the details of the models you used to reach your own conclusion.

To take a pragmatic view keep a check of the BoE's operations and watch the bond markets for signs of a gilts strike.

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I would never put Sibley on ignore. He humours me so ;)

I think he has turned a bit on the vicious insane side TBH. Maidstone does that to people.

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I wonder how many kilowatts of brainpower has been wasted on this waster?

He is on my ignore list... he should be on everybody's... I know I am.

:lol: Classic...

He has never been able to explain exactly where all of the money for his wet dream is going to come from. <_<

EDIT:

Sorry to be on topic:

I agree with Bloo Loo and think back end of summer/autumn will be when rates are likely to have to be raised

Edited by Bubble&Squeak

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