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Gideon Gono

Another Question For The Bears.....

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Don't know, don't care.

Anyone know what % of people with mortgages are on trackers?

Not seen any graphs yet.. my experience (friends only) was that most were taking short fixes of 2-3 years.

Don't know if that was representative or not.

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Don't know, don't care.

Anyone know what % of people with mortgages are on trackers?

Can't be bothered to provide linked evidence but I know 40% of mortgages in the UK are fixed... And that mortgage arrears continue to rise, even amongst prime borrowers.

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I am re-assured that there is no rush to buy then.. I will sleep better tonight ;)

Overly simplistic, like most bear arguments, but OK then..... :lol:

Even if prices only rise slowly, it's still a hell of an amount added to lifetime housing costs when you factor in the rent.

3% per year price increase, plus 5% per year rent, can add up to a lot of money lost in just a year or two.....

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Did the govt help the unemployed with mortgage payments last time round?

This time round if you find yourself coming off your fixed mortgage you are seeing your interest rates FALL not zoom up to 15%+

Edited by Flash Gordon

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Don't know exactly.

From memory around 35% to 45%, but that could be wrong.

Whats more important at the moment is the other 50% plus coming off high fixed rates of 6% or so onto far lower SVR's of 2.5% to 4%.

I don't expect base rates to rise til next year, and even then very slowly. It'll be years before those people are paying the 6% they pay now.

Aye, but base rates are not the same as mortgage rates are they? Mortgage rates are higher than base rates to compensate for risk (as you know). The cost of borrowing for asset purchases has pretty much totally detatched fom base rates as to be irrelevant. The cost of borrowing for asset purchases now depends on risk as defined by the market. That risk, even in this spring bounce (not only in residential property), is increasing in the areas that matter most (See Gilt thread and Nationwide mortgage increase).

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Overly simplistic, like most bear arguments, but OK then..... :lol:

You mean you want to sit on the fence :lol:

Can I safely assume you have revised your 35% from peak estimate now then?

Rent is less than the IO would be so I'm not especially worried about that.. as for 3% yoy.. lets see :)

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Aye, but base rates are not the same as mortgage rates are they? Mortgage rates are higher than base rates to compensate for risk (as you know). The cost of borrowing for asset purchases has pretty much totally detatched fom base rates as to be irrelevant. The cost of borrowing for asset purchases now depends on risk as defined by the market. That risk, even in this spring bounce (not only in residential property), is increasing in the areas that matter most (See Gilt thread and Nationwide mortgage increase).

Funny thing is, you remember back in 2007 when the bulls then were telling everyone to get in on cheap fixed rate mortgages, don't miss the boat etc.. (not aimed at you Hamish.. I know you joined later).

Funny how now everyone talks about variable rate mortgages instead.

Want to bet that when interest rates do go up and people are stuck on 4% +base that talk will quickly return to all the people who locked in for "cheap" ten year fixes again :rolleyes:

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Funny thing is, you remember back in 2007 when the bulls then were telling everyone to get in on cheap fixed rate mortgages, don't miss the boat etc.. (not aimed at you Hamish.. I know you joined later).

Funny how now everyone talks about variable rate mortgages instead.

Want to bet that when interest rates do go up and people are stuck on 4% +base that talk will quickly return to all the people who locked in for "cheap" ten year fixes again :rolleyes:

Indeed. People focus too much on base rates. They are normally a large factor but perceived risk over the risk free rate also has a large impact on mortgage rates. Mispricing risk was one of the major factors that got us into this mess.

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Lots of talk of rates rising in here.

Q) Which month of which year does the BOE make its first .25bp rise to the base rate?

Lots of us on trackers in here. Im curious to know the feeling.

I see the hyperinflation TFH's have disappeared. Lets see if one of you can actually give an answer this time.

How about '****** off'.

That answer ok for ya?

You've only been here 2 weeks, I notice....

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:lol:

I've never said otherwise.... Don't get me wrong, I'd be delighted to see prices rise earlier, but it's not likely to happen that way.

Steady incremental growth of a few points a year starting from next year is the most likely outcome by far.

Thank Christ for that. You had me worried too for a sec. I thought for one moment you'd discovered irony.

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Lots of talk of rates rising in here.

Q) Which month of which year does the BOE make its first .25bp rise to the base rate?

Lots of us on trackers in here. Im curious to know the feeling.

I see the hyperinflation TFH's have disappeared. Lets see if one of you can actually give an answer this time.

Ok Osborne, here's a semi-serious answer. Based on the Frank Field Doomsday scenario.

June 2010 rises 0.25% to 0.75%

Sept 2010 rises 0.25% to 1.00%

Oct 7 2010 rises 0.25% to 1.25%

Oct 21 2010 rises 0.25% to 1.50%

Nov 4 2010 8.00 am rises 0.50% to 2.00%

Nov 4 2010 8.30 am rises 1.00% to 3.00%

Nov 4 2010 3.27 pm rises 3.00% to 6.00%

Nov 4 2010 3.56 pm rises 2.00% to 8.00%

Nov 5 2010 8.01 am (emergency meeting) rises 6.00% to 14.00%

Nov 6 2010 "U.K. PLC" bought by the province of Heibei and now subject to Beijing municipality martial law.

Nov 7 2010 Dear Leader executed for financial crimes against The People. (not the newspaper).

I don't personally believe that UK inflation will reach Zimbabwean proportions - I try not to indulge in really extremist thinking.

:lol::lol::lol:

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Ok Osborne, here's a semi-serious answer. Based on the Frank Field Doomsday scenario.

June 2010 rises 0.25% to 0.75%

Sept 2010 rises 0.25% to 1.00%

Oct 7 2010 rises 0.25% to 1.25%

Oct 21 2010 rises 0.25% to 1.50%

Nov 4 2010 8.00 am rises 0.50% to 2.00%

Nov 4 2010 8.30 am rises 1.00% to 3.00%

Nov 4 2010 3.27 pm rises 3.00% to 6.00%

Nov 4 2010 3.56 pm rises 2.00% to 8.00%

Nov 5 2010 8.01 am (emergency meeting) rises 6.00% to 14.00%

Nov 6 2010 "U.K. PLC" bought by the province of Heibei and now subject to Beijing municipality martial law.

Nov 7 2010 Dear Leader executed for financial crimes against The People. (not the newspaper).

I don't personally believe that UK inflation will reach Zimbabwean proportions - I try not to indulge in really extremist thinking.

:lol::lol::lol:

neither do I.........

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It's a fair question, and deserves something better that your answer.

Tw@t !

Thanks johnny. Some people think that because they have been on here for 3 or 4 years they are superior? needle is a t0sser of note.....

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Lets see now.

pundits are making noises in the hidden articles of the press ( the quiet corners nobody reads)

they are saying QE is not working.

the bond markets are getting a bit pricey.

real interest rates are rsing quite rapidly.

margins are srpeading.

for the few who HAVE trackers, the banks are losing a packet.....cant have that now can we.

Euro and dollar losing value, pound has already dropped, so seen as a bit of a siding...for now.

banks losing money on loans....that would be bad..

holidays coming up, so pressure on politicos low.

September, as last year, people back at work, had a think during the hols, yes, its time for a crisis to become revealed....politicos act, rates raised.

September 2009 is my guess.

meanwhile, real interest rates, that determine asset prices....they will keep rising in any case.

Edited by Bloo Loo

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If prices in September are similar to todays I will be worried. If they are similar to todays in Jan I'll be very worried and I'd except game over if prices had not fallen from todays figures by this time next year.

For me though its not a I'm right your wrong situation. I have always believed that there is a small chance that 20-25% off from 2007 could be the bottom with a long period of a bumpy bottom of 7-10 years.

Edited by blakey74

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You feeling alright Hamish?

He does have odd moments of lucidity.

Previous Hamish quote:

No, I can't really argue with that.

This is a blip. There are further, although much smaller, falls to go over next winter. 30% off peak, when we had already reached 22%, seems reasonable. Could just as easily be 25%. Or 35% if some new liquidity crisis comes along before then.

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Funny thing is, you remember back in 2007 when the bulls then were telling everyone to get in on cheap fixed rate mortgages, don't miss the boat etc.. (not aimed at you Hamish.. I know you joined later).

Funny how now everyone talks about variable rate mortgages instead.

Want to bet that when interest rates do go up and people are stuck on 4% +base that talk will quickly return to all the people who locked in for "cheap" ten year fixes again :rolleyes:

+1

It is funny how few seem to get how banks manipulate their customers and how when they offer good deals you know perfectly well it will end up being a ball and chain.

I couldn't possibly bet against the inevitable. I leave losing money to mortgage holders.

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Lots of talk of rates rising in here.

Q) Which month of which year does the BOE make its first .25bp rise to the base rate?

Lots of us on trackers in here. Im curious to know the feeling.

I see the hyperinflation TFH's have disappeared. Lets see if one of you can actually give an answer this time.

GE + 2 months.

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:lol:

I've never said otherwise.... Don't get me wrong, I'd be delighted to see prices rise earlier, but it's not likely to happen that way.

Steady incremental growth of a few points a year starting from next year is the most likely outcome by far.

Hamish. You have said before that the next boom would be huge, and make this one look 'tiny in comparison'.

I am sure those were your actual word. Shame the search facility is so piss.

So now you are saying we are going to have very small rises for the next decade or so ?

When is the mega boom going to occur then :blink:

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LR doens't include repossesions sold at auction.

In Jockland it does !!

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