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Gideon Gono

Another Question For The Bears.....

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Lots of talk of rates rising in here.

Q) Which month of which year does the BOE make its first .25bp rise to the base rate?

Lots of us on trackers in here. Im curious to know the feeling.

I see the hyperinflation TFH's have disappeared. Lets see if one of you can actually give an answer this time.

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Lots of talk of rates rising in here.

Q) Which month of which year does the BOE make its first .25bp rise to the base rate?

Lots of us on trackers in here. Im curious to know the feeling.

I see the hyperinflation TFH's have disappeared. Lets see if one of you can actually give an answer this time.

I think you are confusing talk of comercial rates with BoE base rates.. that seems to be where most of the action is.

BoE wise, I guess it depends on inflation expectations.. if houses are expected to rise 30 odd percent back to peak prices by the end of the year, then probably as soon as next month!

Edited by libspero

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I think you are confusing talk of comercial rates and BoE base rates.. that seems to be where most of the action is.

BoE wise, I guess it depends on inflation expectations.. if houses are expected to rise 30 odd percent back to peak prices by the end of the year, then probably as soon as next month!

No confusion at all. The BOE base rate (as the question states) is .5%. I'd like to know when you think it will rise.

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I think you are confusing talk of comercial rates and BoE base rates.. that seems to be where most of the action is.

BoE wise, I guess it depends on inflation expectations.. if houses are expected to rise 30 odd percent back to peak prices by the end of the year, then probably as soon as next month!

Given that prices only fell by 17% to date according to LR....... :rolleyes:

And who said they'd recover by the end of this year? It will take years to get back to 2007 prices. And a decade before we see proper boom conditions again.

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Lots of talk of rates rising in here.

Q) Which month of which year does the BOE make its first .25bp rise to the base rate?

Lots of us on trackers in here. Im curious to know the feeling.

I see the hyperinflation TFH's have disappeared. Lets see if one of you can actually give an answer this time.

The day after the election, obviously.

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Given that prices only fell by 17% to date according to LR....... :rolleyes:

And who said they'd recover by the end of this year? It will take years to get back to 2007 prices. And a decade before we see proper boom conditions again.

You feeling alright Hamish?

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oooh ooh, meee meee!!!

er

July 2009 (i hope)

no really, i think they will rise after the next general election, which is er May 2010...?

Somewhere between the two.

i hope they rise soon.

personally i cant imagine that keeping interest rates low is really unpopular with alot of people. i think the mainstream press is holding back on reporting all that, but really, i think it must be causing alot of pain out there, especially amongst the older people that might have 90%+ equity and savings, gearing up for retirement etc.

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Lots of talk of rates rising in here.

Q) Which month of which year does the BOE make its first .25bp rise to the base rate?

Lots of us on trackers in here. Im curious to know the feeling.

I see the hyperinflation TFH's have disappeared. Lets see if one of you can actually give an answer this time.

I think it will stay where it is until the next election unless something very unexpected happens. I also think that commercial borrowing rates will become increasingly divorced from the base rate as the banks try to deal with increasing defaults (from increasing unemployment), whilst saving rates will be kept as low as they can get away with.

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You feeling alright Hamish?

:lol:

I've never said otherwise.... Don't get me wrong, I'd be delighted to see prices rise earlier, but it's not likely to happen that way.

Steady incremental growth of a few points a year starting from next year is the most likely outcome by far.

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Anyone seen Sibley ?

I think I saw him being carted off in a straight jacket, he was screaming out something about being Mr Rachman! He did seem a tad delusional I must say!

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So MOST - myself included think its still 12 months away? One vote for Nov 09.

Thats still a long time for people to suck up the pain. 12 months time we will be out of recession.

I agree with Hamish. The market won't be like 04 - 07 but the negative numbers will definitely stop and we will see slight positives.

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:lol:

Glad to hear it.

I've never said otherwise.... Don't get me wrong, I'd be delighted to see prices rise earlier, but it's not likely to happen that way.

I must have got confused by all "the crash is over" threads I thought I saw you post.

Steady incremental growth of a few points a year starting from next year is the most likely outcome by far.

I do think overall there is a case for house prices rising, to keep in line with inflation, but I also think that we have got way ahead of ourselves. We will have to have some pain first before we can get back to even a vaguely normal situation. The pain can either be fast, through significant drops, it can be drawn out and long, through stagnation, inflation and everyone's live grinding to a halt for the next five years. I'd prefer the first scenario myself.

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So MOST - myself included think its still 12 months away? One vote for Nov 09.

Thats still a long time for people to suck up the pain. 12 months time we will be out of recession.

I agree with Hamish. The market won't be like 04 - 07 but the negative numbers will definitely stop and we will see slight positives.

I think unemployment is going to drive it this time. Here is my rational, (noting that it is far too late in the evening to go and check my 'figures' so i might be talking out of my ****) - Last time around homeownship was lower - eg far more council housing. Last time are rates were extremely high, which drove repossession but unemployment was not too bad. This time rates are low, but unemployment will be far higher. Far more people own now, so that will have a greater effect on repossessions than before. Add to this the fact that even though rates at the BoE are low, commercial rates are creeping up, and that people have so much more debt this time around so much less flexibility for rate increases.

Anyhow just random thoughts.

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I think unemployment is going to drive it this time. Here is my rational, (noting that it is far too late in the evening to go and check my 'figures' so i might be talking out of my ****) - Last time around homeownship was lower - eg far more council housing. Last time are rates were extremely high, which drove repossession but unemployment was not too bad. This time rates are low, but unemployment will be far higher. Far more people own now, so that will have a greater effect on repossessions than before. Add to this the fact that even though rates at the BoE are low, commercial rates are creeping up, and that people have so much more debt this time around so much less flexibility for rate increases.

Anyhow just random thoughts.

Did the govt help the unemployed with mortgage payments last time round?

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Given that prices only fell by 17% to date according to LR....... :rolleyes:

And who said they'd recover by the end of this year?

:lol::lol::lol:

I was going by the nationwide figures that you have been more than happy to quote recently £186k at peak, £148k at current low (feb).

Call it 20-25% to go then. As for recovery.. I thought most of the bulls were providing evidence of bidding wars and people paying near peak prices again.

So MOST - myself included think its still 12 months away? One vote for Nov 09.

Thats still a long time for people to suck up the pain. 12 months time we will be out of recession.

I agree with Hamish. The market won't be like 04 - 07 but the negative numbers will definitely stop and we will see slight positives.

Still not quite sure where you are going with this.. but stick me down for a November 09 as well.

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I think unemployment is going to drive it this time. Here is my rational, (noting that it is far too late in the evening to go and check my 'figures' so i might be talking out of my ****) - Last time around homeownship was lower - eg far more council housing. Last time are rates were extremely high, which drove repossession but unemployment was not too bad. This time rates are low, but unemployment will be far higher. Far more people own now, so that will have a greater effect on repossessions than before. Add to this the fact that even though rates at the BoE are low, commercial rates are creeping up, and that people have so much more debt this time around so much less flexibility for rate increases.

Anyhow just random thoughts.

I don't think there was that much council housing in the early 90's most of it had been flogged off.

Unemployment (claimant count) went to near 4 million

And interest rates hit 18%

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Don't know, don't care.

Anyone know what % of people with mortgages are on trackers?

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I thought most of the bulls were providing evidence of bidding wars and people paying near peak prices again.

Define "near peak prices". :rolleyes:

Within 10%?

Sure, happens all the time in some areas. Given the current bounce, that may have narrowed some more.

In other areas its more like 30%, and may remain so for some time.

It's a postcode lottery out there, I don't expect that to change.

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Don't know, don't care.

Anyone know what % of people with mortgages are on trackers?

Don't know exactly.

From memory around 35% to 45%, but that could be wrong.

Whats more important at the moment is the other 50% plus coming off high fixed rates of 6% or so onto far lower SVR's of 2.5% to 4%.

I don't expect base rates to rise til next year, and even then very slowly. It'll be years before those people are paying the 6% they pay now.

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