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Housing Market Is Flat, Not Recovering

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Housing market is flat, not recovering

Despite claims earlier this week from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors that prices in the property market may now be beginning to turn, one expert believes they are still flat.

Paul Holmes, chief executive officer of Firstrung, believes that there is still a need for considerable correction within the market.

"What we are witnessing now is a market that has deflated to the point that it is now flat and we're going to see a very gradual decrease in prices," says Mr Holmes.

Currently, there are few distressed sellers, he notes, adding that people are putting their properties on the market at full price and are not budging on offer prices.

Instead of rapid falls in home values, prices will deflate more slowly, he suggests.

His comments follow separate pieces of research from Nationwide and Halifax which indicate that while house prices rose month-on-month in May, values are still considerably lower than they were at the same time last year.

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Housing Market is not crashing either...

Where is the crash cruise speed so much talked about earlier this year? :P

Boy oh boy are you in for some disappointment this October, November, December, January etc

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Housing Market is not crashing either...

Where is the crash cruise speed so much talked about earlier this year? :P

its here, its with us.

its called a bull trap.

in your case though woof woof............Psssssssssssssssssssssssssss

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Housing Market is not crashing either...

Where is the crash cruise speed so much talked about earlier this year? :P

Huh?

I see you have brought your atypical self into this thread.

Do you care to enlighten us with a well presented, cogent thesis, citing precedence and fact?

Or do you just want to get your pee pee smacked by making emotive, idiot statements, as per usual?

Please do tell what is your agenda? Posting here assumes that you are either heavily leveraged, in the property conveyancing game, or is it something different altogether?

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Huh?

Do you care to enlighten us with a well presented, cogent thesis, citing precedence and fact?

Or do you just want to get your pee pee smacked by making emotive, idiot statements, as per usual?

My money is on Option 2.

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Huh?

I see you have brought your atypical self into this thread.

Do you care to enlighten us with a well presented, cogent thesis, citing precedence and fact?

Or do you just want to get your pee pee smacked by making emotive, idiot statements, as per usual?

Please do tell what is your agenda? Posting here assumes that you are either heavily leveraged, in the property conveyancing game, or is it something different altogether?

he's masturbating.

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Look, matey, I know a dead cat when I see one, and I'm looking at one right now.

No no its not dead, its bouncing!

Nah it's stone dead.

Nononono, no, no! 'E's bouncing !

Housing Market Dead

UK house prices continue falling as actual house sales crash by sixty percent

UK house prices (actual sold values) continued falling according to the latest statistical release from Land Registry published this morning which records the actual prices achieved...

Although these figures can lag by up to six months; the period covered is in fact November to February, the most startling revelation is the severe drop in sales transactions. Nationally there was a sixty percent fall in sales, in February the number of transactions slumped to just 25,592, half of the 51,121 recorded in February 2008. In London 2,933 properties changed hands compared with 7,152 last year, a fall of circa 65%.

The mainstream media will generate plenty of opinion today suggesting a 'bottom' of sorts has been reached by the housing market. With transaction numbers at lows not seen since the seventies and mortgage lending 60% down year on year this would be a premature assumption when mortgage lending and sales transactions suggest an undeniable fact; the housing market is in fact dead...

Sellers can keep their properties on at 2007 value but very few will sell , Rightmove / Hometrack /Savills etc have been saying this since the start of the year.

Rightmove said that sellers that had "drastically reduced " their property price were still finding it hard to find a buyer able to get the finance.

Yes of course a % will sell to cash rich buyers , which is what Hometrack confirmed , but anyone needing a mortgage will find it difficult to pay 2007 values :

1. With 97% fewer mortgages available for FTB's.

2.With new rules under which lenders have to set aside more capital to cover high loan-to-value mortgages means the cost to the lender of making one 90% LTV loan available can be four or five times the cost of offering a mortgage at 60% LTV, resulting in a situation where the more lending a lender does at 90% the less lending they are able to do overall.

3. With Tightened lending criteria means first-time buyers applying for a large loan had a two-in-three chance of being rejected, with lenders only interested in "squeaky clean" borrowers with perfect credit records.

4. With the CML, whose members are banks, building societies and other lenders who together undertake around 98 in every 100 mortgages, saying :

While an improvement on the March figures, however, the number of home loans granted in April was down 28 per cent on the same month last year.

Those loans totalled £4.5 billion which was also up 16 per cent on the total for March although the total value was down 40 per cent on April last year

5. Surveyors Realistic Valuations Break Chains

6. Homebuyers Left High and Dry as Mortgage Offers Cancelled

Edited by Sybil13

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Housing Market is not crashing either...

Where is the crash cruise speed so much talked about earlier this year? :P

Valerius, I hate to tell you this, but the crash is back on full speed ahead. Loads of 5-10% reductions this week and last. Here are some from Guildford all since the 10th June one reduced from £1.5m down to £1.3m

Anyone who bought in the last 2 months has lost money already, and if they are lucky enough not to have exchanged, they should probably withdraw their offer now whilst they still can. The next leg will 10% down by Christmas.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sa...80%26index%3D10

12 June 2009 20:59:51

* Price changed: from '£1,300,000' to '£1,250,000' [Found by n/a]

29 May 2009 18:32:12

* Agent found: Savills

* Agents Location found: Guildford

* Agents Telephone found: 08453735314

11 May 2009 12:35:13

* Brief Description found: 5 bedrooms - 4 reception rooms - 2 bathrooms - Garage - In about 0.514 of an acre. [Found by n/a]

* Price found: £1,300,000 [Found by n/a]

* Status found: Available [Found by n/a]

* Subtitle found: 5 bedroom house [Found by n/a]

* Title found: Merrow, Guildford, Surrey [Found by n/a]

and

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sa...80%26index%3D10

ate event

13 June 2009 09:53:50

* Agents Telephone changed: from '08453456946' to '08453032259'

* Price changed: Offers in Excess of £1,300,000

10 June 2009 14:00:08

* Price changed: from '£1,499,995' to '£1,300,000' [Found by n/a]

17 February 2009 08:18:19

* Status changed: from 'Available' to 'Premium Listing' [Found by n/a]

18 December 2008 20:07:25

* Brief Description changed: A beautifully presented six double bedroom detached Victorian family home with great views across the Hogs Back. Ideally located for the amenities of Guildford. The accommodation is spacious and laid out over three floors. (contd...) [Found by aop27]

* Price changed: from '£1,350,000' to '£1,499,995' [Found by aop27]

16 December 2008 20:08:48

* Brief Description changed: MARKETING AT A REDUCED PRICE FOR THE 11TH, 12TH AND 13TH DECEMBER ONLY SALE, OFFER ENDS CLOSE OF BUSINESS WED 17TH AT 5.00PM. A beautifully presented six double bedroom detached Victorian family home with great views across the Hogs Back. Ideally located for the amenities of Guildford. (contd...) [Found by aop27]

14 December 2008 14:11:44

* Brief Description changed: MARKETING AT A REDUCED PRICE FOR THE 11TH, 12TH AND 13TH DECEMBER ONLY A beautifully presented six double bedroom detached Victorian family home with great views across the Hogs Back. Ideally located for the amenities of Guildford. The accommodation is spacious and laid out over three floors. (contd...) [Found by StefV]

* Price changed: from '£1,625,000' to '£1,350,000' [Found by StefV]

06 December 2008 08:57:48

* Subtitle changed: from '6 bedroom detached' to '6 bedroom detached house ' [Found by SaintJay]

19 November 2008 12:20:29

* Price changed: from '£1,790,000' to '£1,625,000' [Found by aop27]

08 November 2008 17:31:42

* Agent found: Gascoigne-Pees

* Agents Location found: Guildford

* Agents Telephone found: 08453456946

29 October 2008 09:29:22

* Brief Description found: A beautifully presented six double bedroom detached Victorian family home with great views across the Hogs Back. Ideally located for the amenities of Guildford. The accommodation is spacious and laid ... [Found by d179]

* Price found: £1,790,000 [Found by d179]

* Status found: Available [Found by d179]

* Subtitle found: 6 bedroom detached [Found by d179]

* Title found: Guildford, Surrey, GU1 [Found by d179]

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. The next leg will 10% down by Christmas.

My prediction too, and around 20% down by this time next year. I've called it 100% correctly so far, and was repeatedly forecasting the current bull trap on the forum a couple of months back. Prices will be moving downwards throughout the Winter as economic gloom descends across the land.

We also have a General Election next year and the Conservatives will be making the long-overdue cuts in the public sector. Unemployment will rise for some time yet and the housing market won't recover until people start getting back to work in large numbers.

Edited by Harry Monk

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Huh?

I see you have brought your atypical self into this thread.

Do you care to enlighten us with a well presented, cogent thesis, citing precedence and fact?

Or do you just want to get your pee pee smacked by making emotive, idiot statements, as per usual?

Please do tell what is your agenda? Posting here assumes that you are either heavily leveraged, in the property conveyancing game, or is it something different altogether?

Funny you are saying that when all you do is scouring the internet and copy/paste here your doom-mongering stories.

Are you an HPC evangelist? :lol:

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Valerius, I hate to tell you this, but the crash is back on full speed ahead. Loads of 5-10% reductions this week and last. Here are some from Guildford all since the 10th June one reduced from £1.5m down to £1.3m

Anyone who bought in the last 2 months has lost money already, and if they are lucky enough not to have exchanged, they should probably withdraw their offer now whilst they still can. The next leg will 10% down by Christmas.

and

10% by Christmas is a safe bet given that:

Mutuals braced for drop in property prices - survey

Building society bosses are expecting on average a 10 per cent drop in house prices this year according to a survey by the Building Societies' Association.

About 39 per cent of bosses polled predicted house prices would fall between 5 per cent and 10 per cent this year and a further 29 per cent forecast a drop of between 10 per cent and 15 per cent.

Not sure what the other 32% thought , it was probably unprintable!

If Rightmove / Savills etc said earlier this year that sellers needed to reduce prices 25 -30% then by next January we should see 35 - 40% so what are sellers waiting for?

Once prices are down they are NOT going back up for a very long time.

If I needed to sell I would rather take a 25 % drop this year than 40% next.

Buyers of course have nothing to lose by waiting.

Sellers Need to Reduce Prices

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Valerius, I hate to tell you this, but the crash is back on full speed ahead. Loads of 5-10% reductions this week and last. Here are some from Guildford all since the 10th June one reduced from £1.5m down to £1.3m

Anyone who bought in the last 2 months has lost money already, and if they are lucky enough not to have exchanged, they should probably withdraw their offer now whilst they still can. The next leg will 10% down by Christmas.

and

Reductons in asking prices are not really relevant. If that house in Guildford was 1.3 million at the peak of the market then that is not crash in asking prices. Now if it sold for 2mill in 2007, then that would be relevant.

The interesting data is when the current sales prices that are being achieved in this spring bounce pop up on nethouseprices and such. Then we can really see what is going on in the market.

Edited by ralphmalph

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10% by Christmas is a safe bet given that:

Mutuals braced for drop in property prices - survey

Not sure what the other 32% thought , it was probably unprintable!

If Rightmove / Savills etc said earlier this year that sellers needed to reduce prices 25 -30% then by next January we should see 35 - 40% so what are sellers waiting for?

Once prices are down they are NOT going back up for a very long time.

If I needed to sell I would rather take a 25 % drop this year than 40% next.

Buyers of course have nothing to lose by waiting.

Sellers Need to Reduce Prices

So do you seriously expect prices to drop by 40% next year?

Hum....At this rate we would be trading houses like packs of tomatoes....buy one get one free :unsure:

Edited by Valerius

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So do you seriously expect prices to drop by 40% next year?

Hum....At this rate we would be trading houses like packs of tomatoes....buy one get one free :unsure:

Valerius, I'm curious. Do you look at the long term economic outlook and think everything looks rosy? The way you and the other bulls talk is reminiscent of a food junkie not being able to see beyond the next meal.

(edit for spelling)

Edited by v23nb

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So do you seriously expect prices to drop by 40% next year?

By the end, prices will be down by just over 40% and this will be towards the end of 2010.

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Guest Steve Cook
Sooner or later the forced sales will start hitting the market in droves.

dead right

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So do you seriously expect prices to drop by 40% next year?

Hum....At this rate we would be trading houses like packs of tomatoes....buy one get one free :unsure:

Mmmmm let me consider, shall I listen to Mc Tavish and Valerius or consider what the FT reported Moodys as saying ?

Tough one !

Moody’s said it had changed its assumptions about UK house prices in the past few months.( It also stress-tested the mutuals’ commercial loan portfolios, where it expects the performance to worsen during the next few years.

Marjan Riggi of Moody’s said: “What’s different is the loss expectation is higher than it was three or four months ago looking at the economic forecasts on housing.

“Last year we were looking at mortgage lenders and stress-testing a 25 per cent fall in house prices. In the past three or four months that assumption has changed to a 40 per cent fall, which is a considerable difference.â€

On Wednesday Adrian Coles, director-general of the Building Societies Association, said Moody’s had included an extreme stress test of a 60 per cent fall in house prices

Shall I listen to McTavish /Valerius and Sibley or the BOE official who warned Darling : "Not to Stop the Housing Crash" :

A top Bank of England official today warned the Government against trying to prevent the housing crash.

In a controversial call, Markets Director Paul Fisher said it would be ‘dangerous’ for policymakers to try to stem the relentless slump in the value of property.

In testimony to the Treasury Committee, Mr Fisher said: ‘I think the most important thing for the housing market is that prices should be allowed to adjust to a level at which people can afford to buy houses.’

In recent years potential buyers were unable to get onto the property market because ‘houses were just so expensive,’ he went on.

‘We have to allow the housing market to find a new level at which people can afford to enter it.’

Britain has seen one of the deepest property slumps of any advanced nation since the onset of the credit crunch.

Prices have tumbled by 21 per cent from their peaks, compared with an average 10 per cent decline in major economies, according to International Monetary Fund figures.

There is a danger that policy intervention in the housing market stops these sorts adjustments from happening.

‘We have to be very careful with policy intervention that we don’t actually make it worse.’

Property prices are still 40 per cent above their historic averages, suggesting further declines are unavoidable,

Do I listen to McTavish / Valerius / Sibley or to these people ? Tough one really tough NOT!

5 Reasons Why House Prices Will Plunge Further

Why House Prices Have Further to Fall

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Mmmmm let me consider, shall I listen to Mc Tavish and Valerius or consider what the FT reported Moodys as saying ?

I wouldn't pay much attention to either, to be honest.

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My prediction too, and around 20% down by this time next year. I've called it 100% correctly so far, and was repeatedly forecasting the current bull trap on the forum a couple of months back. Prices will be moving downwards throughout the Winter as economic gloom descends across the land.

We also have a General Election next year and the Conservatives will be making the long-overdue cuts in the public sector. Unemployment will rise for some time yet and the housing market won't recover until people start getting back to work in large numbers.

My view as well. Why bulls think that UK house prices will now go up..... LOL...LOL...LOL.....whilst they are currently higher (ratio of earnings to values) now than at the very height of the last crash!

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Currently, there are few distressed sellers, he notes, adding that people are putting their properties on the market at full price and are not budging on offer prices.

The decreasing price spiral will increase in downward speed with rising unemployment and once interest rates rise and once it becomes clear that the green shoots were merely mould on a turd.

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My view as well. Why bulls think that UK house prices will now go up..... LOL...LOL...LOL.....whilst they are currently higher (ratio of earnings to values) now than at the very height of the last crash!

None of them thinks prices are really about to go up, they are simply estate agents on auto-pilot.

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None of them thinks prices are really about to go up, they are simply estate agents on auto-pilot.

You are undoubtedly right of course. One thing does bother me though, even estate agents must live somewhere, so why would they want such big mortgages and be in so much debt? Or do they live under rocks?

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