Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Danny Deflation

What If Labour Have Got It Right With The Economy?

Recommended Posts

I'll start with a disclaimer: I am not a Labour supporter, and I do not like the government. Predictably, I will be flamed for making this post, but who cares?

I was thinking today about what would happen if Labour were getting it right. With some experts suggesting there are signs of recovery in the economy and housing market, much to the dismay of many of us on this forum, is there a chance that the second great depression, which we were all foreseeing 12 months ago, is not actually going to happen? Is the economy going to recover in the second half of the year (and there are signs that it might, even if we get the W-shaped economic slump that some commentators are predicting)? Are we going to see house prices slide steadily back up to their 2007 pinnacle? With savings increasing, are we going to see another boom based on savings, not debt?

Maybe we are all wrong.

As someone famous once said: when you're on your a4se, the only way is up.

Are we going to be eating humble pie?

Let the flaming begin...

Edited by Danny Deflation

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest happy?
I'll start with a disclaimer: I am not a Labour supporter, and I do not like the government. Predictably, I will be flamed for making this post, but who cares?

I was thinking today about what would happen if Labour were getting it right. With some experts suggesting there are signs of recovery in the economy and housing market, much to the dismay of many of us on this forum, is there a chance that the second great depression, which we were all foreseeing 12 months ago, is not actually going to happen? Is the economy going to recover in the second half of the year (and there are signs that it might, even if we get the W-shaped economic slump that some commentators are predicting)? Are we going to see house prices slide steadily back up to their 2007 pinnacle? With savings increasing, are we going to see another boom based on savings, not debt?

Maybe we are all wrong.

As someone famous once said: when you're on your a4se, the only way is up.

Are we going to be eating humble pie?

Let the flaming begin...

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/53d18f82-5791-11...?nclick_check=1

...

The pound has surged to its highest level this year against the world’s major currencies, propelled higher by growing investor confidence that the British economy is on the road to recovery.

Sterling’s rebound comes as City analysts are tearing up their forecasts of a prolonged recession, increasingly convinced that tentative signs of economic “green shoots†show the worst of the downturn is past.

“Armageddon is behind us,†Larry Fink, founder and chief executive of BlackRock, said on Friday

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's been said before and we will say it again watch the true indicators, unemployment figures and mortgage stats...

When they start improving then will be the time to think about whether the slide has been reversed. Personally I think they have thrown a few anchors out and it has slowed considerably but is still heading down and the strain now on those anchors are close to breaking point.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If we are going to have a W recession it's highly probably that Ponzi Brown could claim he fixed the recession. It could get a lot of people voting Labour.

If Labour can manipulate the upswing correctly the next downward slide would be after the election. The trouble with this strategy is that there are a lot of variables outside there control, we have the problems in Eastern Europe which could erupt at any point, the ARM resets in the US, combined with the babyboomers retirement hitting all at the start of 2010. It looks like the election will be May next year. For Labour they will need a lot of luck that nothing pops up to derail the manipulation.

However I think Brown now has Majors problem people are simply fed up of the sleaze, what happens in the economy may not matter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest BAREBEAR_soon to be ALIVA

Its pointing more and more to a double bottomed crash to reflect the double topped boom. So an analyst said on the radio anyway.

Could be right, who knows ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest sillybear2

This is just the calm before the storm, soon there will be a public deficit and debt crisis. The hard decisions are yet to be made and people will be screaming once cuts have to be forced through, not to mention when unemployment continues to rise (lagging indicator).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Brown is "right" in the sense that he is doing what the current world political hegemony expect and demand. He is using tax money to reflate the financial sector and bail out the fraudulent and criminally incompetent banking sector. Funnily enough the response is that all is well; as that is what they want - me you and every other idiot to pay for their mistake over property.

There is a current witch hunt in the UK to lynch Brown, but its not seen here on the mainland. He (Brown) has become a scapegoat for the English and particularly for the Conservative voting classes who accuse Brown of being left-of-centre at the same time anyone that is even remotely left is accusing Brown of selling out to the right (both cannot be correct - sorry)

The ultra-orthodox free market types (mostly in the US) would have let the banking sector go to the wall. If that option had been taken would the run (and the losses) be limited to Northern Rock? Or maybe the Rock, Bradford and Bingley, Royal Bank of Scotland, and the other minor players would have gone to the wall and the UK would have gone into meltdown. People not being paid, companies going bust, riots, food shortages, military rule imposed and anyone that could getting their money out the UK and into somewhere seen as safer.

Its hard to say what the truth is as we have never been here before.

Brown is a convenient whipping post for the gutter press in the UK, mainly because they scent the smell of blood and the chance to get in their beloved Tories (the ones they went to private school with). Don't let that fool you - he and the rest of the government are still in thrall to big money and the city.

I'm no fan of the man either but do not let the media prejudice and widespread public stupidity fool you - the response to the crisis from all the other parties would be very similar, as would the outcome. Were Osborne the chancellor the Daily Mail would now be bigging the guy up and saying he was a hero.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Brown is "right" in the sense that he is doing what the current world political hegemony expect and demand. He is using tax money to reflate the financial sector and bail out the fraudulent and criminally incompetent banking sector. Funnily enough the response is that all is well; as that is what they want - me you and every other idiot to pay for their mistake over property.

There is a current witch hunt in the UK to lynch Brown, but its not seen here on the mainland. He (Brown) has become a scapegoat for the English and particularly for the Conservative voting classes who accuse Brown of being left-of-centre at the same time anyone that is even remotely left is accusing Brown of selling out to the right (both cannot be correct - sorry)

The ultra-orthodox free market types (mostly in the US) would have let the banking sector go to the wall. If that option had been taken would the run (and the losses) be limited to Northern Rock? Or maybe the Rock, Bradford and Bingley, Royal Bank of Scotland, and the other minor players would have gone to the wall and the UK would have gone into meltdown. People not being paid, companies going bust, riots, food shortages, military rule imposed and anyone that could getting their money out the UK and into somewhere seen as safer.

Its hard to say what the truth is as we have never been here before.

Brown is a convenient whipping post for the gutter press in the UK, mainly because they scent the smell of blood and the chance to get in their beloved Tories (the ones they went to private school with). Don't let that fool you - he and the rest of the government are still in thrall to big money and the city.

I'm no fan of the man either but do not let the media prejudice and widespread public stupidity fool you - the response to the crisis from all the other parties would be very similar, as would the outcome. Were Osborne the chancellor the Daily Mail would now be bigging the guy up and saying he was a hero.

monsieur Brun could have done his duty when he was chancellor, and prevented the whole thing...as they did in Canada.

Instead he brought the whole financial kit and caboodle into the heart of our economy with his light touch.

so he was wrong then. that makes him the wrong man for the job.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This site predicted this crash partly on the basis of unsustainable debt levels.

A trillion of fresh debt or thereabouts has been thrown at a problem with some discernible effect.

The debt levels are now worse. I predict a bigger crash.

+1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest sillybear2
so he was wrong then. that makes him the wrong man for the job.

Exactly, the losses haven't gone away, private bank failures has simply shifted the problem to a future sovereign debt crisis.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Brown is a scapegoat?

How can this possibly be the case?

Brown split the regulation of the market into three, one part BoE, one part FSA, one part treasury. By effectively giving half of the BoE's remit to the FSA Ed Balls designed a system where the treasury automatically had the upper hand. Gordon is a control freak and this system builds in ultimate control for the Chancellor and the treasury.

If Brown wanted to prevent rampant house price inflation all he had to do was include housing costs in the official measure of inflation. He had a decade to do this but chose not to. HPI was his fault.

Pensions are wrecked because £5bn a year is taxed from private pension funds.

Public borrowing is shot because Gordon has tackled every problem since 97 by throwing money at it. Far from being the visionary leader Gordon only has one plan- drown problems in money and hope for the best.

Gordon Brown has been found out----- he just isn't up to the job, he knows it, we know it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We are sailing into uncharted waters...never in the history of governance and finance has so much been owed by so many and savings by so few. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
monsieur Brun could have done his duty when he was chancellor, and prevented the whole thing...as they did in Canada.

Instead he brought the whole financial kit and caboodle into the heart of our economy with his light touch.

so he was wrong then. that makes him the wrong man for the job.

Browns clearly a tw@t but he did what was right from a political viewpoint, had he adopted the Canadian stance the UK (a financial services goliath) never would have had the boom in everything and most likely would have lost its place as the financial Capital of the world, without the boom Labour would prbably have lost in 2001 and definately in 2005, so what he did was the correct thing politically at the time and would have been done by any party in power. Clearly politicians always try to do the right thing politically, if it also happens to be the right thing economically then all well and good, but the immediate political implications will always take precedence over the long term economic.

He gave the majority of Brits what they wanted as can be seen in the election results. (The fact that the inevitrable pyramid/ponzi of debt had to break at some point just highlights the financial illiteracy of most of the UK population). Whilst the majority on this site had a clear enough understanding of that which has just started, Its a bit rich for many of those who voted for him the last 2 times to start crying now as they as much as New Labour are just as responsible for this crisis.

THe only way to really be heard is to vote with your feet

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Browns clearly a tw@t but he did what was right from a political viewpoint, had he adopted the Canadian stance the UK (a financial services goliath) never would have had the boom in everything and most likely would have lost its place as the financial Capital of the world, without the boom Labour would prbably have lost in 2001 and definately in 2005, so what he did was the correct thing politically at the time and would have been done by any party in power. Clearly politicians always try to do the right thing politically, if it also happens to be the right thing economically then all well and good, but the immediate political implications will always take precedence over the long term economic.

He gave the majority of Brits what they wanted as can be seen in the election results. (The fact that the inevitrable pyramid/ponzi of debt had to break at some point just highlights the financial illiteracy of most of the UK population). Whilst the majority on this site had a clear enough understanding of that which has just started, Its a bit rich for many of those who voted for him the last 2 times to start crying now as they as much as New Labour are just as responsible for this crisis.

THe only way to really be heard is to vote with your feet

I know, Im silly in thinking that the powers that be have our best interests at heart....Im sure there is a law to ensure they do.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I dont post much in the main forum because i dont know a great deal about economics. However i do remember which posters were right about the crash long before it happened, and i trust their opinion above and beyond the bunch of mainstream losers who got it hoplessly wrong (in fact didnt even see it coming).

The fact is some of the posters on here got it right and understood the fundamental reasons for the problems. I have learnt a great deal from these posters. I think most people on here know who they are.

Go and read their old posts. If they say its going to get worse then thats good enough for me. Their reasoning and arguments are as good as they were before.

It seems pretty obvious to me that all you have to do is understand why we got into this mess in the first place and ask yourself one question:

Has anything changed?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Seeing as Labour haven't got anything right in 12 years of shambles, I don't see them

getting this bit right. Brown sat back and let the banks run riot while he was Chancellor,

and he's now trying to spend this way out of his mess with tax payers money, he should

be locked up.

Blair may have nicked a few votes from the Tories because he had a bit of charisma

Brown on the other hand said there would be no more boom and bust. We're in the

biggest bust in a 100 years that he blames the Americans for. Brown won't even be

able to get Labour voters to vote for them, let alone nicking votes from the Tories.

What we need now is someone to do the right thing for the country as the Tories did

in the '90s. House prices need to fall, and fall fast so the economy can rebuild.

There's a lot to be learnt from the '90s. The Tories let house prices fall even though

it meant losing the election as they understand economic cycles. Whereas all Brown's

interested in is helping Tory voters vote Tory.

Edited by time 2 raise interest rates

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This horrific bit from Market Oracle:

Thus total net borrowing of £490 billion to grow the economy by just £67 billion, (£595 billion my forecast) which shows the magnitude of the scorched earth economic policy now implemented that literally aims to hand the next Conservative government a bankrupted economy that will be lumbered with the consequences of continuing huge budget deficits and therefore necessary deep cuts in public spending.

A criminal fraud more than anything else.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
THe only way to really be heard is to vote with your feet

Yes but its quite tricky holding the pen with your toes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I dont post much in the main forum because i dont know a great deal about economics. However i do remember which posters were right about the crash long before it happened, and i trust their opinion above and beyond the bunch of mainstream losers who got it hoplessly wrong (in fact didnt even see it coming).

The fact is some of the posters on here got it right and understood the fundamental reasons for the problems. I have learnt a great deal from these posters. I think most people on here know who they are.

Go and read their old posts. If they say its going to get worse then thats good enough for me. Their reasoning and arguments are as good as they were before.

It seems pretty obvious to me that all you have to do is understand why we got into this mess in the first place and ask yourself one question:

Has anything changed?

Totally agree, there are some really intelligent posters on here, giving sensible well thought out discussions.

and lots can be learned from them, keep up the good work.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If we are going to have a W recession it's highly probably that Ponzi Brown could claim he fixed the recession. It could get a lot of people voting Labour.

If Labour can manipulate the upswing correctly the next downward slide would be after the election. The trouble with this strategy is that there are a lot of variables outside there control, we have the problems in Eastern Europe which could erupt at any point, the ARM resets in the US, combined with the babyboomers retirement hitting all at the start of 2010. It looks like the election will be May next year. For Labour they will need a lot of luck that nothing pops up to derail the manipulation.

Much simpler than that. BoE QE-ed £80B into economy in a space of few weeks/three of months. £45B from original allocation remains to be QE-ed, maybe up to £70B.

This "shot in the arm" produced at most feeble recovery in single month (May 2009) HPI indices depending on which index you trust. The 2007 mortgage lending was circa £320B - in order to sustain 2007 prices, QE needs to be ramped up at least threefold :P And remain there for at least a couple of years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It's been said before and we will say it again watch the true indicators, unemployment figures and mortgage stats...

When they start improving then will be the time to think about whether the slide has been reversed. Personally I think they have thrown a few anchors out and it has slowed considerably but is still heading down and the strain now on those anchors are close to breaking point.

Unemployment figures are a lagging indicator, not a leading indicator. People hold back on losing staff at the beginning of a business cycle, and then wait to recruit again until they are sure that things are definitely better.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'll start with a disclaimer: I am not a Labour supporter, and I do not like the government. Predictably, I will be flamed for making this post, but who cares?

I was thinking today about what would happen if Labour were getting it right. With some experts suggesting there are signs of recovery in the economy and housing market, much to the dismay of many of us on this forum, is there a chance that the second great depression, which we were all foreseeing 12 months ago, is not actually going to happen? Is the economy going to recover in the second half of the year (and there are signs that it might, even if we get the W-shaped economic slump that some commentators are predicting)? Are we going to see house prices slide steadily back up to their 2007 pinnacle? With savings increasing, are we going to see another boom based on savings, not debt?

Maybe we are all wrong.

As someone famous once said: when you're on your a4se, the only way is up.

Are we going to be eating humble pie?

Let the flaming begin...

This site is about bubbles - are you living in one?

We have higher unemployment than when the Tories were in, 50% tax, the lowest output for over 20 years and over 85% of FTBs cant afford a home. What's right about that?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Had to add to this delusional post - My bank informed me on Friday that my savings account was now at 0.1% and the only ISA they could offer was 1.3%. You think that is optimitistic for savings?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   291 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.