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Gideon Gono

A Question For Bears

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So - We have all see the "spring bounce". Question is will it continue? As we all know a few bears have capitulated and bought.

Q) At what % up do you bears take your fingers out of your ears and realise March/April was the bottom and you missed it?

If Im wrong (last time it happened was when I was 10, put too much flour in the scones :lol::lol: ), no seriously If Im wrong and prices drop another 7% I'd happily admit that.

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So - We have all see the "spring bounce". Question is will it continue? As we all know a few bears have capitulated and bought.

Q) At what % up do you bears take your fingers out of your ears and realise March/April was the bottom and you missed it?

If Im wrong (last time it happened was when I was 10, put too much flour in the scones :lol::lol: ), no seriously If Im wrong and prices drop another 7% I'd happily admit that.

prices always go down

this isn't a bounce, its a perversion of statistics.

just wait for the black death to kick in when school goes back.

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So - We have all see the "spring bounce". Question is will it continue? As we all know a few bears have capitulated and bought.

Q) At what % up do you bears take your fingers out of your ears and realise March/April was the bottom and you missed it?

If Im wrong (last time it happened was when I was 10, put too much flour in the scones :lol::lol: ), no seriously If Im wrong and prices drop another 7% I'd happily admit that.

In real terms houses are still overvalued by a factor of about four.

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So - We have all see the "spring bounce". Question is will it continue? As we all know a few bears have capitulated and bought.

Q) At what % up do you bears take your fingers out of your ears and realise March/April was the bottom and you missed it?

If Im wrong (last time it happened was when I was 10, put too much flour in the scones :lol::lol: ), no seriously If Im wrong and prices drop another 7% I'd happily admit that.

Well if we take history into account then I guess 6 months.

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In real terms houses are still overvalued by a factor of about four.

So at what % do you admit you are wrong? There must be a number surely.

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prices always go down

this isn't a bounce, its a perversion of statistics.

just wait for the black death to kick in when school goes back.

Thats a good percentage........

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So - We have all see the "spring bounce". Question is will it continue? As we all know a few bears have capitulated and bought.

Q) At what % up do you bears take your fingers out of your ears and realise March/April was the bottom and you missed it?

If Im wrong (last time it happened was when I was 10, put too much flour in the scones :lol::lol: ), no seriously If Im wrong and prices drop another 7% I'd happily admit that.

Are you talking about March/April 2013? If you are right I will have all my physical silver and gold delivered into your possession.

Edited by Concrete Jungle

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prices always go down

this isn't a bounce, its a perversion of statistics.

just wait for the black death to kick in when school goes back.

If you think about the rate of spread of the pig flu, it may not be long before people start taking off work in significant numbers. A very bad flu season this winter could seriously put the kibosh on the recoverh.

Just one of many wild card factors.

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So - We have all see the "spring bounce". Question is will it continue? As we all know a few bears have capitulated and bought.

Q) At what % up do you bears take your fingers out of your ears and realise March/April was the bottom and you missed it?

Osborne, I think you've got this tit about ****.

We will have missed it if we never retest the lows.. the scale of the bounce seems pretty irrelevant no?

Edited by libspero

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Thats a good percentage........

Like your style Osborne...like I say, I now think bottom has gone already anyway. Getting upset about it won't change that any more than you are likely to get a proper answer

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If you think about the rate of spread of the pig flu, it may not be long before people start taking off work in significant numbers. A very bad flu season this winter could seriously put the kibosh on the recoverh.

Just one of many wild card factors.

You do realise that pig flu has killed less people than the normal flu does every day?

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i dont think its as easy as that.

there are alot of factors.

one big one is Labour loosing power.

things will change after the general election. whoever wins will put interest rates up, and that will force alot of mortgages to fail.

Then theres the ongoing unemployement, thats going to build up and up resulting in idiots loosing their homes.

plus theres all the financial stuff that i dont understand such as bonds failing to sell, FX rates kicking the UK in the goolies.

i think there are so many factors that we wont know the score until 2 years from now.

personally im not a bear. i think bears are gay. i dont care. im a FTB and i want a house. im sitting here waiting, what more can i do.

i know for a fact that plenty of businesses are going to fail, thats going to have an effect.

but what im pretty sure of is that over the next 6 months things will at worst be flat like 1995 to 1997, ups and down. At worst. At best 40% falls. I dont see significant rises.

Edited by 50%deposit

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Like your style Osborne...like I say, I now think bottom has gone already anyway. Getting upset about it won't change that any more than you are likely to get a proper answer

Welcome to the forum.

Bear = You think house prices have further to fall

Bull = You think house prices will rise

Just so you know :)

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So at what % do you admit you are wrong? There must be a number surely.

Well personally I think that if prices go up by around twenty percent then maybe we will see them rise above the 2007 peak.

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You do realise that pig flu has killed less people than the normal flu does every day?

You do realise that 95% of seasonal flu deaths occur in over 65s/elderly people? Most of which already have an illness.

You do realise that only 2% of swine flu deaths occur in over 65s/elderly people?

We are dealing with a disease that will hit the working age range as it spreads into winter.

Do some research before spouting off man.

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Like your style Osborne...like I say, I now think bottom has gone already anyway. Getting upset about it won't change that any more than you are likely to get a proper answer

I asked for a % and got some random answer, I was being sarcastic at the avoidance of giving a %.

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You do realise that pig flu has killed less people than the normal flu does every day?

The worry is that it does a Spanish flu of course.

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You do realise that 95% of seasonal flu deaths occur in over 65s/elderly people? Most of which already have an illness.

You do realise that only 2% of swine flu deaths occur in over 65s/elderly people?

We are dealing with a disease that will hit the working age range as it spreads into winter.

Do some research before spouting off man.

Are you serious? Has swine flu killed anyone without a preexisting condition? If it was so bad it would have got worse where it started!

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I asked for a % and got some random answer, I was being sarcastic at the avoidance of giving a %.

At what percentage down will you admit that it's a bull trap and decide to sell?

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i dont think its as easy as that.

there are alot of factors.

one big one is Labour loosing power.

things will change after the general election. whoever wins will put interest rates up, and that will force alot of mortgages to fail.

Then theres the ongoing unemployement, thats going to build up and up resulting in idiots loosing their homes.

plus theres all the financial stuff that i dont understand such as bonds failing to sell, FX rates kicking the UK in the goolies.

i think there are so many factors that we wont know the score until 2 years from now.

personally im not a bear. i think bears are gay. i dont care. im a FTB and i want a house. im sitting here waiting, what more can i do.

i know for a fact that plenty of businesses are going to fail, thats going to have an effect.

I was a bear but I think I'm on the turn...so does that mean I'm still gay? And I've got this fantasy about coming out and posting here as an uber bull (which I'm not sue I am either). It gets worse because I get excited by the thought that keep thinking that Hamish and Valerius are just bull teasing and I want to join in...but then I'm not sure.

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The worry is that it does a Spanish flu of course.

Si - Or a SARS or an Ebola, or a Flesh eating bug. Or most likely another non event......

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Welcome to the forum.

Bear = You think house prices have further to fall

Bull = You think house prices will rise

Just so you know :)

Libspero, your a funny guy!!

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Welcome to the forum.

Bear = You think house prices have further to fall

Bull = You think house prices will rise

Just so you know :)

I think pedantry's always the best welcome on HPC :lol:

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also, im a greater believer in conspiracy theories and think the govt are evil etc. What i think is happening right now is that in fact NOW alot of people are suffering heavily, right now. And hat the govt are doing is manipulating figure and the media to make things sound rosie so that the people that are suffering, ie, just lost their job or figured their spread sheets are no longer adding up dont get too depressed, they have lost a battle but not the war, things are getting better, for example, they just sold 1 house, but look, prices are going up so the rest of the portfolio will at least increase in value. What im saying is that i think we can possibly reading the inverse into all the green shoots. After all, its just like the govt and media etc to smile just before they put a bullet in your head. so wha tthi means is that in two months time the june figures will proove disasterous. thats human nature.

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