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Barb E Dahl

Oh My God! We're Fighting For A Property...

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Oh no, I can wait.

I find it useful to mention the fact that there's clearly a mismatch between ever rising houseprices and ever declining real incomes.

You pile in sonny.

Fill your boots.

This is the Recovereh, remember.

Is there room? I'd like to watch.

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The worst time to buy a soft-top car is now and during the summer.

the worst time to buy a place is when the bulls are out, the VIs are saying the crash is over and the sun is shining.

course, the EAs can use all the "good news" to create a beleivable story of the other deals on the table...it was incredibla 3 months ago, now its credible.

FEAR is back.

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It's strange/funny how when bears do get involved in the buying process, the previous bearish logic seems to go out of the window and people become emotionally involved in not "losing" a property and it becomes much more difficult to pull out of a deal. I guess once you've got your hopes up and you/partners can see yourselves living in a new property then it's very difficult to leave your feelings at the door. This is not a criticism of the OP - a friend of mine who has been a bear for a while has got himself involved in a (probably fictitious) bidding war and no amount of logic seems to put him off - it is now a competition and he wants to win it. Weird. I am stating this because I don't want to fall into this emotional trap myself when the time comes, and perhaps as a warning to other bears. It seems to be a common human emotion.

I'm emotionally detached from this purchase. To be honest I don't even like the property particularly, however I know it makes good financial sense for us in the short and long term, and it has a lot of potential and will probably appeal to a lot of people.

Though you're right, it seems I have lost some of my logic! I'm pulling out - that'll teach them if they are messing us about :lol:

The Bear is back!

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It's strange/funny how when bears do get involved in the buying process, the previous bearish logic seems to go out of the window and people become emotionally involved in not "losing" a property and it becomes much more difficult to pull out of a deal. I guess once you've got your hopes up and you/partners can see yourselves living in a new property then it's very difficult to leave your feelings at the door. This is not a criticism of the OP - a friend of mine who has been a bear for a while has got himself involved in a (probably fictitious) bidding war and no amount of logic seems to put him off - it is now a competition and he wants to win it. Weird. I am stating this because I don't want to fall into this emotional trap myself when the time comes, and perhaps as a warning to other bears. It seems to be a common human emotion.

+1

Worth pointing this out. Any one of us - except those with an iron resolve and an unusually objective view of themselves could easily rationalise getting involved in a bidding war, real or otherwise, once so much time and hope has been spent planning a purchase like this. If it it's a matter of an extra grand or 2, it might not seem to matter.

In any case, if it's a flat, why is the OP so excited? There must be countless other places with a similar spec and they'll always be available. Surely hang on at least until autumn. Whatever happens the market will soften...and it might well crumble...

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I know it makes good financial sense for us in the short and long term,

I really don't think it does. Interest rates up and the price down by another 20% or so in the short term would spell disaster. Couldn't that happen?

Anyway, glad you walked away - well done!

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i went to view a house in severe need of renovation in january that was up for auction and i couldnt believe the number of people that went to view it. guide was £80k and it solf for £190k.......

it was on the market originally for £160k or something like that.

point is, theres a crazy amount of interest out there even now.

this crash is about as convincing as a family trip to the New Forest LapLand Xmas wonderland

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This is why the crash will be so complete, all wealth will be destroyed. It's just that people so used to seeing property rise in price and being bored with the world coming to an end are jumping in with "irrational exuberance". They will be wiped out as much as any BTL. It seems to be unstoppable, fear and greed will result in the very thing that people were fearing, namely, that their wealth will be lost, it will.

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
i went to view a house in severe need of renovation in january that was up for auction and i couldnt believe the number of people that went to view it. guide was £80k and it solf for £190k.......

it was on the market originally for £160k or something like that.

point is, theres a crazy amount of interest out there even now.

this crash is about as convincing as a family trip to the New Forest LapLand Xmas wonderland

Interesting watching a bulltrap.

I suppose those who have made their money selling at silly prices now think 20% off peak is a bargain.

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I'm 100% bear but even I'm shocked at the sudden interest in FLATS round here, of all things!

After a lot of thought, we decided to purchase a flat a) because we expected them to be selling cheap because there are so many flats (well so I thought) and b ) because we could live more cheaply than renting and hence save even more. Our ultimate goal is to have a flat near work and then buy our dream house (once prices are around the bottom) out in the countryside.

We've been bartering with this guy for a week now and today we've just found out he has another 3 offers on the table! Our price is very reasonable now considering the mess of the property, but I feel we will lose it. I really want it but I will also feel a bit peed off if we go higher.

I've looked around this area and all the cheap places (particularly flats) are selling like hotcakes atm. I'm beginning to wonder if we have already missed the boat. Do I fight for the flat we want or let it go and not get drawn into this situation?

Just wait. We are moving country and our landlord is trying to sell. The only people we get through the doors are those with cash which is burning a hole in the bank because it isn't currently earning interest. No FTBs as far as I can see, though it is a FTB property. Once all these people have been fleeced, then down we go again, in my opinion. There are just too many structural problems for this to be over with such little readjustment.

Edited by D'oh

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I hate science fiction. I watched a few of the early Star Trek episodes - got a bit scared by one where some beautiful woman turned old and ugly. Scared me for life.

It's called marriage. Get used to it.

Edited by D'oh

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I'm emotionally detached from this purchase. To be honest I don't even like the property particularly, however I know it makes good financial sense for us in the short and long term, and it has a lot of potential and will probably appeal to a lot of people.

Though you're right, it seems I have lost some of my logic! I'm pulling out - that'll teach them if they are messing us about :lol:

The Bear is back!

Good for you. And it will make even more financial sense next December when they are begging for you to take it at another 20k off.

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In case my message didn't get through.......DO NOT buy a flat! If you insist on wealth destruction at least do it the relative comfort and safety of a house. Message repeats, DO NOT buy a flat................

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Just wait. We are moving country and our landlord is trying to sell. The only people we get through the doors are those with cash which is burning a hole in the bank that isn't currently earning interest. No FTBs as far as I can see, though it is a FTB property. Once all these people have been fleeced, then down we go again, in my opinion. There are just too many structural problems for this to be over with such little readjustment.

Japan_Land%20price%20Chart.jpg

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I'm 100% bear but even I'm shocked at the sudden interest in FLATS round here, of all things!

After a lot of thought, we decided to purchase a flat a) because we expected them to be selling cheap because there are so many flats (well so I thought) and b ) because we could live more cheaply than renting and hence save even more. Our ultimate goal is to have a flat near work and then buy our dream house (once prices are around the bottom) out in the countryside.

We've been bartering with this guy for a week now and today we've just found out he has another 3 offers on the table! Our price is very reasonable now considering the mess of the property, but I feel we will lose it. I really want it but I will also feel a bit peed off if we go higher.

I've looked around this area and all the cheap places (particularly flats) are selling like hotcakes atm. I'm beginning to wonder if we have already missed the boat. Do I fight for the flat we want or let it go and not get drawn into this situation?

Obviously, you should tell the vendor too stick his flat up his gazoo forthwith

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Interesting watching a bulltrap.

I suppose those who have made their money selling at silly prices now think 20% off peak is a bargain.

At least it clearing out all the faux bears from the real bears in the woods.

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At least it clearing out all the faux bears from the real bears in the woods.

I think it all depends on your personal circumstances.

I'm very bearish, and I think properties will fall further - however I am still going ahead with a house purchase.

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The question isn't really about property purchase per se, rather, what is your answer to the following questions:

1) Will I need a mortgage?, if NO, then go ahead, if YES, oh dear........

and following on from 1)

2) How long will I be in paid employment?, if "I work in government for the inland revenue or I am an undertaker", then please proceed with purchase, if anyone else, oh dear.................

and following on from 2)

3) I am funeral directing undertaker with a small mortgage, what will interest rates be in the future?, I believe they are at a permanent low and will remain this way for the next 20-25 then proceed, if not, oh dear............

Property ownership is an irrelevance, debt ownership is the primary issue................if you buy a house with no debt then you simply have lost opportunity costs. If you have a mortgage then you are in the bookmakers and are feeling lucky.

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Interesting watching a bulltrap.

I suppose those who have made their money selling at silly prices now think 20% off peak is a bargain.

I was reading this thread which appears to be descending into typical panto bull vs bear... then it occurred to me... I have seen loads of people "predict" the nature ,strength and length of this crash, not many share exactly the same view. Some back their arguments up with charts hoping that will win the day, others just state their case.

But I was wondering with the wealth of data we have on housing did anyone, and I mean anyone... a year /eighteen months into the last crash predict the scale or nature of it, how low it would go or how long it would take.

We have loads of data this time, and amateur analysis as well as professional analysis is coming out of our ears... but I wonder is anyone going to be right this time... why should it be any different from last time.... maybe some will get lucky, but most I feel will find themselves scabbling to re-adjust their views.

My personal view is that prices wil continue to go down, but I am not nearly as bullish as some, and never have been. I originally though 25%/30% I have adjusted this to 35% at the outside... and the recent bullish news hasn't changed my view.

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
The question isn't really about property purchase per se, rather, what is your answer to the following questions:

1) Will I need a mortgage?, if NO, then go ahead, if YES, oh dear........

and following on from 1)

2) How long will I be in paid employment?, if "I work in government for the inland revenue or I am an undertaker", then please proceed with purchase, if anyone else, oh dear.................

and following on from 2)

3) I am funeral directing undertaker with a small mortgage, what will interest rates be in the future?, I believe they are at a permanent low and will remain this way for the next 20-25 then proceed, if not, oh dear............

Property ownership is an irrelevance, debt ownership is the primary issue................if you buy a house with no debt then you simply have lost opportunity costs. If you have a mortgage then you are in the bookmakers and are feeling lucky.

Well put.

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