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cashinmattress

"green Shoots"

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"Green Shoots" From 1933

Detroit had turned a page. Prices were leveling out. "The long-awaited upswing" was suddenly "a living, breathing, reality." Are we talking about the first week of June 2009? Nope. Try the end of July 1933.

Over the weekend, we toured the Nautical Museum on New York's City Island and found an archive of old issues of the City Island Bulletin, a local rag that didn't last too long during the 1930s. We were charmed to find an ad from the Bulletin's publishers exhorting advertisers to get back in the action.

It begins: "We have turned the corner and are on the road to recovery," and then the publishers list off a bunch of signs of recovery that today we might call "green shoots."

Pittsburgh is once again engulfed in clouds of smoke from its steel mills. Detroit has doubled its daily produciton of motor cars during the last few weeks. Akron sppeds the manufacture of tires, keeping pace with Detroits's increased output. All sensing and likewise preparing for increased market demands. What are you doing toward securing your market? New fortunes are in the making. Will you get your share?

It is technically true that the economy turned something of a corner in 1933. US unemployment peaked at 24.9% that year and would never be so high again. But unemployment did stay as high as 17.9% through 1939. Guess "green shoots" can take a while to grow out sometimes, eh?

Anyway, for us, the ad for ads is a reminder: Those preaching early optimism -- The ad-market is stabilizing! GM and Chrysler are back! -- are trying to sell you something just like everybody else.

No matter how things change, we still stay exactly the same. N'est pas?

bandwagon1933.jpg

post-15349-1244732766_thumb.jpg

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Pittsburgh is once again engulfed in clouds of smoke from its steel mills. Detroit has doubled its daily produciton of motor cars during the last few weeks. Akron sppeds the manufacture of tires, keeping pace with Detroits's increased output. All sensing and likewise preparing for increased market demands. What are you doing toward securing your market? New fortunes are in the making. Will you get your share?

lol

doubled car production? double lol

steam from the steel mills lol lol lol

this is a time when most people still walked and never went anyfurther than 5 miles from home

these days we measure economic activity by the number of telemarketing calls we recieve!!! hey, i have had a doubling of those recently!!! RECOVEREH!!!!!!!!

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And lets not forget 1933 was four years after the Wall Street Crash.

We are barely halfway; even to that point.

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You could do the same for Spring 1930 as well.

Or maybe 1932. Here are some headlines for the first week of August, as reported by TIME magazine:

Many Industries Add Workers

CHICAGO WHEAT SCORES THIRD STRAIGHT RISE

BUSINESS PULSE BEATING FASTER Factories Reopening All Over Country

BOOM AWAKENS TEXTILE PLANTS IN NEW ENGLAND

Capacity Production Reported in Some Cities, Idle Employees Find Jobs

REVIVAL IN TRADE GAINS MOMENTUM THROUGHOUT EAST

Road Is Clear To Prosperity Capital Feels

Mark Sullivan Notes a Calm Confidence; Obstacles to Recovery Are Gone

250,000 To Get Highway Jobs

CAMDEN GIVES JOBS TO 9,000, LONG LAID OFF

Steel, Textiles, Autos Augur Business' Upturn

24 COAL MINES AT WILKES-BARRE RESUME WORK

New Jobs Open This Week; Uncle To Borrow Millions To Speed Recovery Efforts

SHOWING BEST IN WEEKS FOR RESERVE BANKS

TRADE UPTURN WITHIN 90 DAYS NOW EXPECTED

$18,500,000 Grain Price Jump Gives West a Chance to Whistle

BRIGHT SPOTS GROW ON U. S. BUSINESS MAP

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Reminds me of the Benjamin Roth Diaries which we discussed last year:

June 5, 1931. Immediately after the 1929 crash the speculators rushed in to buy "bargains" but were badly mistaken because the market kept going down and down even tho' industrial leaders kept on assuring the people that everything was fine and the worst was over. At the present time the newspapers are urging people to buy these "bargains" but opinion is much divided as to whether or not the bottom has been reached.

Investments in real estate and mortgages fared almost as badly as stocks. Since 1929 foreclosure by the banks has been the order of the day. Day after day real estate can be bought for the price of the first mortgage and there are no bidders except the bank which holds the first mortgage. In this way the banks are becoming the holders of huge quantities of real estate.

The worst feature about real estate in a depression is that it is illiquid and cannot be sold at any price. If it is free of mortgage the owner may hold on until normal times. But in most cases it is subject to mortgage; he cannot collect his rent from the tenants, cannot pay on his mortgage or taxes and eventually loses his equity by the foreclosure route.

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You could do the same for Spring 1930 as well.

Or maybe 1932. Here are some headlines for the first week of August, as reported by TIME magazine:

Many Industries Add Workers

CHICAGO WHEAT SCORES THIRD STRAIGHT RISE

BUSINESS PULSE BEATING FASTER Factories Reopening All Over Country

BOOM AWAKENS TEXTILE PLANTS IN NEW ENGLAND

Capacity Production Reported in Some Cities, Idle Employees Find Jobs

REVIVAL IN TRADE GAINS MOMENTUM THROUGHOUT EAST

Road Is Clear To Prosperity Capital Feels

Mark Sullivan Notes a Calm Confidence; Obstacles to Recovery Are Gone

250,000 To Get Highway Jobs

CAMDEN GIVES JOBS TO 9,000, LONG LAID OFF

Steel, Textiles, Autos Augur Business' Upturn

24 COAL MINES AT WILKES-BARRE RESUME WORK

New Jobs Open This Week; Uncle To Borrow Millions To Speed Recovery Efforts

SHOWING BEST IN WEEKS FOR RESERVE BANKS

TRADE UPTURN WITHIN 90 DAYS NOW EXPECTED

$18,500,000 Grain Price Jump Gives West a Chance to Whistle

BRIGHT SPOTS GROW ON U. S. BUSINESS MAP

No where do I see propery prices mentioned.

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