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HAMISH_MCTAVISH

It's The End Of The World As We Know It.......

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The worlds worst recession, and then it's all over in a few weeks, having had no effect on me or anyone I know.

Someone is lying, either at the start of it, or at the end.

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The worlds worst recession, and then it's all over in a few weeks, having had no effect on me or anyone I know.

Someone is lying, either at the start of it, or at the end.

In fairness, we have had a recessionary environment (declining GDP) in all 4 quarters last year and the first one of this year. Thats 5 quarters of cr@ppy conditions. Which is not far off the average for recessions.

It is now clear, that had there not been intervention on a massive scale with ZIRP and QE, then this could well have been the worlds worts recession. But there was, and so now it isn't.

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Oh, and as for this bit......

having had no effect on me or anyone I know.

Same here. And that is why house prices will not crash as far as many on here think. They may well still dip again over next winter, in fact, most probably they will. But only by much smaller, and relatively seasonally normal amounts.

The worst is behind us.

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IF that is todays copy of the newspaper, then I'm going to go out and buy one for posterity to add to my small collection of similar subsequently shown to be nonsense headline screaming publications proclaiming 'All's Clear' - when the REALLY brown smelly stuff hasnt even hit the air rotating device yet!

Should raise a chuckle in 30 years.

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The worlds worst recession, and then it's all over in a few weeks, having had no effect on me or anyone I know.

Someone is lying, either at the start of it, or at the end.

We've lost about 20% of our workforce, my last company has shed 10% brother in law is now unemployed, all in the last 6 months. Try walking into a recruitment agency its utter shite out there.

I think they're calling an end prematurely, but when it does end you can still expect rising unemployment and me personally i think falling house prices but not by much.

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on R4 this morning, rep from the firm that produced the report said the truth was, that some aspects of the economy had good indicators, but that most were still negative.

He felt that government would not thwart, and indeed he feared, they would encourage another house price boom fueled by more debt, which of course was unsustainable and would lead to bigger trouble down the road.

Clearly, he is a reported of the bleedin obvious, as lending is exactly what the government is encouraging.

However, it CANT be working as rates are still at .5%, and the only reason they are there is to get the lending going again.

my view, is that even if this report is a true indicator, and it is only one of many, that the imbalances in the economy it sees are ones that need to be cleared if growth is to be sustained.....these imbalances will ensure that the correction will continue for some years ahead.

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15300931.jpg

But I feel fine........

Have you ever heard of deferring pain?

If you really believe what you write on here please start acting on it, if you have the ability to see the bottom as you have called it when all the credible data around suggests we are still declining as fast or faster than the great depression on a global scale then go ahead and make some money.

Houses are currently (even post mini crash) as over valued now as they were at the very peak of the 80/90's bubble, if we have enter this new World you seem to believe in where old historical trends are obsolete you will indeed be at the front of the cue cashing in when we are screaming ahead again.

As a bear the use of media since the G20 around the World to guide the majority to start spending again (which has to happen if we are to return to "normal") has been fascinating to watch and see the effect. It has been more successful than the continuous bailouts and has slowed the rate of decline but will it be enough to get us back to "normal", I very much doubt it. As I bull i would find it very disconcerting that everywhere i look people are telling me the worst is over.

Put you money where you mouth is (mine is) go out there and buy buy buy, but keep us posted on your progress.

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Guest BAREBEAR_soon to be ALIVA

Its not over until 'everybody hurts' ( if you're going to quote REM)

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Guest BAREBEAR_soon to be ALIVA
heh heh, wondered how long that would take.

Until then it remains a ' bad day ' and we 'accelerate' into recession. I should know as I am ' world leader pretend '.

Edited by BAREBEAR_soon to be ALIVA

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The recession is over for sure*

(*as long as the Russians/Chinese/Japanese are prepared to lend the already massively indebted Western nations several trillion more dollars over the next year or two)

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The recession is over for sure*

(*as long as the Russians/Chinese/Japanese are prepared to lend the already massively indebted Western nations several trillion more dollars over the next year or two)

This is a very odd situation. The structural imbalances remain and the debt remains, the economy may have just stopped contracting, but its with thrusters on full power. I think those does not bode well the next 10 years.

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But I feel fine........

There he goes again, everything is OK, as long as he`s doing well.

Thousands have been repossessed, hundreds of thousands have been made redundant, yet Hamish is happy, and claims that he doesn`t know anyone who`s been affected. It`s almost as though you are denying that the recession ever happened. Well, I can tell you that it certainly did, and is happening.

One friend has just been made redundant from LDV. Another was made redundant as a HGV driver for a metal supplier. My neighbour was put on reduced working hours. I have been working part time. Another friend has had his pay effectively cut by a change in working practices. I was talking to one of my "wealthy" customers yesterday, who deals in property (who told me a couple of years ago that there wouldn`t be a drop in property prices). I asked him how business was - "s*it, I bought three new build flats a couple of years back". Another client, who is heavily invested in property is selling his > £1million home that he only bought quite recently. Make of that what you will. Another custromer runs a reasonably sized engineering company, but has had to "downsize" considerably in the past few months.

Apart from that, "best recession ever", eh Hamish ?

You need to get out more (if they`ll let you out).

Edited by Prof

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my view, is that even if this report is a true indicator ...

If the housing market recession is over, but the jobs recession and world wide recession isn't, then aren't we living in the land of make believe....

I have less respect for the govt and media as each day passes.

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Guest BAREBEAR_soon to be ALIVA
If the housing market recession is over, but the jobs recession and world wide recession isn't, then aren't we living in the land of make believe....

I have less respect for the govt and media as each day passes.

Just go's to show how silly this thread is we've gone from quoting REM to Bucks fizz ( not good bedfellows)

Edited by BAREBEAR_soon to be ALIVA

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Anyone remember how the 'experts' were saying that the Credit Crunch would only affect the banks and not spread to the 'real' economy? Were they right that time?

Personally, I do not think the recession has even started yet.

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lets see the full front page headline from the independent from three years ago calling the dire state of the economy, then I might give this a little more credence. then just a little.

this is only the end of the beginning...

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Look Russia is buying more US treasuries.......................... oh wait, no they aren't

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Typical McTwatish thread! But what the scottish idiot cannot fathom is the fact that we don't produce anything, apart from a thriving call centre export business! QE won't work because the money goes straight out of the UK to those who [roduce the now expensive goods!

Recession is not over!

Oh and besides, that dude who owns Top Shop announced yesterday that inflation in retail is set to soar! Can only mean one thing: Interest Rates up up up...and just in time for the ending of the 2005-2007 fixed rates...

House Price Crash NOT Cancelled.

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I'm sure it's been discussed already this week, but on Jeremy Vine's Radio 2 show the other day they were talking about the recession, and it was VERY noticeable that Jezza was referring to the recession in the PAST TENSE. He didn't do this just once, but several times in the 10min slot I listened to - it was almost TOO forced, as if it was rehersed...Hmmmm

There seems to be a real push on at the moment to convince people its over and to get out there spending...

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Houses are currently (even post mini crash) as over valued now as they were at the very peak of the 80/90's bubble, if we have enter this new World you seem to believe in where old historical trends are obsolete you will indeed be at the front of the cue cashing in when we are screaming ahead again.

.

i agree. if we consider housing to be as much a speculative investment as other assets classes, which also have other intrinsic value, then by no estimation does property look cheap. Looking at long-term value it's arguable that houses can look fair or cheap to a buyer at many points during the cycle......so i don't see this current period post bailout fiscal and monetary props as being a screaming buy.

however it will be sold as such, by a meejia which will want to make a link between spring bounce, economic recovery, and subsequent rapidly increasing hpi.

if that doesn't happen, then the spivs and speculators [sorry, investors] will need to continue to look elsewhere for their returns and speculative gain. Ofcourse housing is particularly acute to the demand for banks to 'start lending again', but how for much longer do we have to put with that empty rhetoric to be spouted ? Until we rebound to 2007-levels and then sellers demand prices that assume continous hpi through 2008 and 2009 ?

I also believe that the govt. props have basically been a catalyst for a reducing in the rate of decline and a minimization of shock to the economy, but let's be frank, what we have now is not dissimilar to what we'd have had their not be such scale of interventionalism, distressed assets moving from the weak to the strong, the cash rich seeing buy opportunities across asset classes......without the great intervention the shocks would have lasted longer, the recovery would have been more muted, but ultimately it's this transfer of weak to strong, the correction of malinvestment which would be needed irrespective of whether there was a great bailout.

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this is only the end of the beginning...

Phoney recession. Plastic recession. Unless you've lost your job it doesn't hurt you.

That's only the loss of 143,181 jobs since October.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/finance...job-losses.html

All the crap they're spending ruining the future economy can help a little. It doesn't solve the problem just make it worse.

What are they after? An election win? Yes.

An end to elections so he can stay in power forever?

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Typical McTwatish thread! But what the scottish idiot cannot fathom is the fact that we don't produce anything, apart from a thriving call centre export business! QE won't work because the money goes straight out of the UK to those who [roduce the now expensive goods!

Recession is not over!

Oh and besides, that dude who owns Top Shop announced yesterday that inflation in retail is set to soar! Can only mean one thing: Interest Rates up up up...and just in time for the ending of the 2005-2007 fixed rates...

House Price Crash NOT Cancelled.

and the great inflation/deflation will-it-won't-it debate goes on....

apparently what could possibly hinder a full recovery would be soaring commodity prices and a sustained strengthening of the pound. :blink: there appear to be an awful lot of variables to consider for this particular recovery to have legs.

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I dont know of anyone whos affected by cholera or typhoid or horrible things like that ....people keep telling me there is torture in the world too.I dont believe a word of it.

Some people will always try to hoodwink you.Just doom mongers.

I like my little world it`s safe and cosy.... :rolleyes:

Edited by tiggerthetiger

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