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The Bull Run - Its Happening Again. Yipppeee

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As of Midnight, I am changing from Bear to Bull.

When you talk to as many small businesses a day as I do, you can get a feel for the economic temperment of the folks. Many were in desperate need of cash back at the start of the year, but knew there was precious little chance of getting it from the banks and so laid off the staff that didnt perform, leaving only the cream and the hardworking.

A case example is a Saddlery & Livery business I deal with saw a dramatic decline in business. She fired a lot of staff and recruited the creme de la creme into her business and generate business back up again. Now she is doing well, she is hoarding the money instead of sticking it in her business savings account. "I've been hurt badly by the banks, why should I give them a single penny" she said to me just the other day.

Estate Agents, Mortgage Brokers and obviously those involved in the financial world, will not see any green shoots for many years and I doubt we will see a return to pre 2007 levels again in my life time, but is that so bad. Fecking Parasites.

So with the small businesses I am dealing with, I am seeing growth again and its these guys that will get us out of a recession, not QE, Q4 & bank lending. Its the Ma & Pa outfits employing the best and in time retaining the best to do the jobs.

We have got the cart back on the road and without the help of the banks. We off. Yippeee

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As of Midnight, I am changing from Bear to Bull.

When you talk to as many small businesses a day as I do, you can get a feel for the economic temperment of the folks. Many were in desperate need of cash back at the start of the year, but knew there was precious little chance of getting it from the banks and so laid off the staff that didnt perform, leaving only the cream and the hardworking.

A case example is a Saddlery & Livery business I deal with saw a dramatic decline in business. She fired a lot of staff and recruited the creme de la creme into her business and generate business back up again. Now she is doing well, she is hoarding the money instead of sticking it in her business savings account. "I've been hurt badly by the banks, why should I give them a single penny" she said to me just the other day.

Estate Agents, Mortgage Brokers and obviously those involved in the financial world, will not see any green shoots for many years and I doubt we will see a return to pre 2007 levels again in my life time, but is that so bad. Fecking Parasites.

So with the small businesses I am dealing with, I am seeing growth again and its these guys that will get us out of a recession, not QE, Q4 & bank lending. Its the Ma & Pa outfits employing the best and in time retaining the best to do the jobs.

We have got the cart back on the road and without the help of the banks. We off. Yippeee

Don't go mistaking that empty bank account for the nice weather we had of late, you nutter.

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Don't go mistaking that empty bank account for the nice weather we had of late, you nutter.

I have my ear to the ground, listening to real people in small businesses. Are you ?

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Wait until oil hits three figures again and IRs are forced up because no one will lend to us so he can shower his beloved NHS with zillions more.

Brown can ****** up fiscal and monetary policy here, he cant do much elsewhere.

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I have my ear to the ground, listening to real people in small businesses. Are you ?

So you are telling me that having some woman who has livestock horde her cash, maybe under a saddle, is going to spur a big market rebound?

Do you know what inflation does to loose money?

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Wait until oil hits three figures again and IRs are forced up because no one will lend to us so he can shower his beloved NHS with zillions more.

Brown can ****** up fiscal and monetary policy here, he cant do much elsewhere.

You mentioned oil and that is a major factor in small businesses. Interest rates are still at 0.5% and those I have spoke to (thats a lot), havent been able to get credit for some time now and those that were relying on credit have folded and others in better shape have filled the void.

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What your looking at is what i call "Drop off". For example I no work in my engineering shop right now, many around me are in the same way. A contact rang me yesterday & was almost crying on the phone..........he owed a shed full of money, banks have cut him off...............he sacked 45 of his 65 staff.............he got weeks.

Another contact saved like me, has "swapped" his crappy staff for good ones, got them to give him bussiness leads. Has moved up from a 3 day week to a 4.............the phone is ringing because of the "Death rate" of other companys.

result, market forces...............

Mike

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my experience is that shops are doing pretty badly,

my own experience on ebay with collectables is worst i've ever seen it, and the more upmarket sellers on ebay cant even shift the better stuff at low prices,

that to me says we're far from out of it,

but if people start feeling optimism they may loosen their purse strings - until the bills come in next year

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As of Midnight, I am changing from Bear to Bull.

When you talk to as many small businesses a day as I do, you can get a feel for the economic temperment of the folks. Many were in desperate need of cash back at the start of the year, but knew there was precious little chance of getting it from the banks and so laid off the staff that didnt perform, leaving only the cream and the hardworking.

A case example is a Saddlery & Livery business I deal with saw a dramatic decline in business. She fired a lot of staff and recruited the creme de la creme into her business and generate business back up again. Now she is doing well, she is hoarding the money instead of sticking it in her business savings account. "I've been hurt badly by the banks, why should I give them a single penny" she said to me just the other day.

Estate Agents, Mortgage Brokers and obviously those involved in the financial world, will not see any green shoots for many years and I doubt we will see a return to pre 2007 levels again in my life time, but is that so bad. Fecking Parasites.

So with the small businesses I am dealing with, I am seeing growth again and its these guys that will get us out of a recession, not QE, Q4 & bank lending. Its the Ma & Pa outfits employing the best and in time retaining the best to do the jobs.

We have got the cart back on the road and without the help of the banks. We off. Yippeee

There's one born every minute. :rolleyes:

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So you are telling me that having some woman who has livestock horde her cash, maybe under a saddle, is going to spur a big market rebound?

Do you know what inflation does to loose money?

I am telling you, she is one voice, amongst thousands I have spoken to as of late, since I have been back.

The inflation question is a null point, unless we have hyper inflation.

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As of Midnight, I am changing from Bear to Bull.

When you talk to as many small businesses a day as I do, you can get a feel for the economic temperment of the folks. Many were in desperate need of cash back at the start of the year, but knew there was precious little chance of getting it from the banks and so laid off the staff that didnt perform, leaving only the cream and the hardworking.

A case example is a Saddlery & Livery business I deal with saw a dramatic decline in business. She fired a lot of staff and recruited the creme de la creme into her business and generate business back up again. Now she is doing well, she is hoarding the money instead of sticking it in her business savings account. "I've been hurt badly by the banks, why should I give them a single penny" she said to me just the other day.

Estate Agents, Mortgage Brokers and obviously those involved in the financial world, will not see any green shoots for many years and I doubt we will see a return to pre 2007 levels again in my life time, but is that so bad. Fecking Parasites.

So with the small businesses I am dealing with, I am seeing growth again and its these guys that will get us out of a recession, not QE, Q4 & bank lending. Its the Ma & Pa outfits employing the best and in time retaining the best to do the jobs.

We have got the cart back on the road and without the help of the banks. We off. Yippeee

Unemployment is still rising and Wait until interest rates go up

THIS DEPRESSION HAS ONLY JUST BEGUN !!!

Edited by dylanthecat

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What your looking at is what i call "Drop off". For example I no work in my engineering shop right now, many around me are in the same way. A contact rang me yesterday & was almost crying on the phone..........he owed a shed full of money, banks have cut him off...............he sacked 45 of his 65 staff.............he got weeks.

Another contact saved like me, has "swapped" his crappy staff for good ones, got them to give him bussiness leads. Has moved up from a 3 day week to a 4.............the phone is ringing because of the "Death rate" of other companys.

result, market forces...............

Mike

Exactly. If your staff do not perform, they will be sacked. If they get the business in, left by those who have folded, they are retained. Market forces exactly. People dont stop buying, they are just more picky and more price concious of what, where and how they buy.

Different business areas will recover at different rates. Unfortunatly engineering isnt one that will weather very well.

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Unemployment is still rising and Wait until interest rates go up

THIS DEPRESSION HAS ONLY JUST BEGUN !!!

No evidence of this at all.

Edited : Unemployment will rise for those who do not perform or cannot perform.

Edited by debt-free

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Wasn't Bull Run the first serious battle of the US civil war. They thought it would all be over after that - four years later and hundreds of thousands of casualties later it was still going.

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it is remarkable that so many people predicted a recession or depresson and suddenly everyone thinks it's a recovery now, but i think it is just the zirp & qe fix, the massive debt has to be paid for from next year surely.

its just too good to be true that a permanent repair has come about so quickly

of course i'd like to see a normalisation of the economy, back to sensible int rates, end to qe, house prices reflecting 2.5x earnings, instead we seem to have the freak symptoms of a seriously messed about with economy, and that doesn't seem likely to end in anything but tears before bedtime this year or next when reality hits home again

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Explain your point.

I am seeing similar things to Mega. Small companies dying and people being laid off all over the place. Some of the better companies are getting more work now because the opposition is dying or dead.

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it is remarkable that so many people predicted a recession or depresson and suddenly everyone thinks it's a recovery now, but i think it is just the zirp & qe fix, the massive debt has to be paid for from next year surely.

its just too good to be true that a permanent repair has come about so quickly

of course i'd like to see a normalisation of the economy, back to sensible int rates, end to qe, house prices reflecting 2.5x earnings, instead we seem to have the freak symptoms of a seriously messed about with economy, and that doesn't seem likely to end in anything but tears before bedtime this year or next when reality hits home again

Maybe, I am not saying otherwise. Maybe QE has helped. No one can know what the next 6-12 months will bring, I heard the expression "False Dawn" and it may be so. We will all have to wait and see.

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I am seeing similar things to Mega. Small companies dying and people being laid off all over the place. Some of the better companies are getting more work now because the opposition is dying or dead.

Thanks for the explaination. I agree. When a small business goes bust, its competitors get busy out of nowhere, this explains why some of the better financially stable companies and those with a good team are doing well at the moment.

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Hang on guys!

What debt-free is describing is what ought to happen in a recession. The shit sinks, the cream rises to the top, allocation of capital, labour and resources improves, and we emerge leaner, fitter, and less loaded with bloodsucking debt.

This however, is exactly what the Government wants to avoid.

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Hang on guys!

What debt-free is describing is what ought to happen in a recession. The shit sinks, the cream rises to the top, allocation of capital, labour and resources improves, and we emerge leaner, fitter, and less loaded with bloodsucking debt.

This however, is exactly what the Government wants to avoid.

i agree with that timm, most of debt-free's comments i agree with too, but i just think the road to emergence is a long one

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This however, is exactly what the Government wants to avoid.

I agree the Government, who own the banks could make life a lot easier for those who are struggling. Its beggars belief that we the taxpayers own the banks and yet the banks are refusing/declining applications for bridging loans, inevitably forcing the taxpayer into unemployment, who must then seek the resources of the state.

It does seem perverse.

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i agree with that timm, most of debt-free's comments i agree with too, but i just think the road to emergence is a long one

A very long road. I am not saying we have hit the bottom, probably not by a long shot, but some areas are recovering and for the moment are not in danger of administration. It seems the larger companies who are who getting the tail end of the whip, although someone who deals with larger business, may tell us otherwise.

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Thanks for the explaination. I agree. When a small business goes bust, its competitors get busy out of nowhere, this explains why some of the better financially stable companies and those with a good team are doing well at the moment.

Let me get this straight. There are 9 businesses in my sector (including mine). I employ 2 people and 8 of my competitors (who collectively employ 16 people) go bust. I lift the best 4 employees out of the 16 who lost their jobs. My company turnover increases. Is my turnover greater than the collective 9 companies? 18 people had jobs before, now only 6 have jobs. As far as I see, no reason to convert to a bull just yet....

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As of Midnight, I am changing from Bear to Bull.

When you talk to as many small businesses a day as I do, you can get a feel for the economic temperment of the folks. Many were in desperate need of cash back at the start of the year, but knew there was precious little chance of getting it from the banks and so laid off the staff that didnt perform, leaving only the cream and the hardworking.

A case example is a Saddlery & Livery business I deal with saw a dramatic decline in business. She fired a lot of staff and recruited the creme de la creme into her business and generate business back up again. Now she is doing well, she is hoarding the money instead of sticking it in her business savings account. "I've been hurt badly by the banks, why should I give them a single penny" she said to me just the other day.

Estate Agents, Mortgage Brokers and obviously those involved in the financial world, will not see any green shoots for many years and I doubt we will see a return to pre 2007 levels again in my life time, but is that so bad. Fecking Parasites.

So with the small businesses I am dealing with, I am seeing growth again and its these guys that will get us out of a recession, not QE, Q4 & bank lending. Its the Ma & Pa outfits employing the best and in time retaining the best to do the jobs.

We have got the cart back on the road and without the help of the banks. We off. Yippeee

What you're seeing is exactly what the system should be doing. It got filled up with poor businesses who only survived due to credit (to themselves or their customers). Those poor businesses took some market share and talented employees from the better ones. Credit lines go, better businesses that are not heavily loaded with debt shrink costs back to survive the initial shake out. Those that survive get the pick of the employees, to work at a lower cost base and have less competition. All this equals growth for the better businesses and the system becomes healthy again.

All fantastic for the winners who have healthy businesses and their employees who have safe jobs with good colleagues.

The problem is that out the back of this you have less people in employment and a hightened fear of debt. Both important (but not exclusively so) factors in future HPI.

Whether the businesses you're seeing are finding a real floor or a temporary one depends on how much the system is being influenced by the ZIRP and QE policies and whether all parts of the economy are at the same stage in the cycle.

Finally, the lady who owns the livery business will possibly face a nice, but difficult dilemma in the next couple of years. If enough competitors fold and her business emerges as one of the best in the region/country, should she try and expand rapidly to fill the void? If so, can she do it fast enough with her own cash, or should she go to the bank to help?

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