Jonnybegood Posted June 10, 2009 Share Posted June 10, 2009 Before I begin, don't want to hear about individuals only earning this and that and houses here cost this much, these stats are all based on averages and from official sources. Believe the stats or not its the only figures we have to go on and they must be getting the data from somewhere, its the same stats and data that have been used for years. Data taken from the Latest LR & ONS/WAG release Incomes: http://www.statswales.wales.gov.uk/TableVi...px?ReportId=113 House Prices: http://www1.landregistry.gov.uk/assets/lib.../hpi162009e.pdf Average house price Wales = £122,241 Average male income Wales = £28,340 x 3.5 = £99,190 Mortgage Average house price Cardiff = £138,647 Average male income Cardiff = £32,656 x 3.5 = £114,296 Mortgage Average house price Swansea = £112,890 Average male income Swansea = £25,948 x 3.5 = £90,818 Mortgage Average house price Bridgend = £120,008 Average male income Bridgend = £30,628 x 3.5 = £107,198 Mortgage Average house price Carmarthenshire = £116,787 Average male income Carmarthenshire = £27,144 x 3.5 = £95,004 Mortgage Once you take off the 10-20% deposit it seems that 3.5x income mortgages will buy you an average house in Wales. When you consider the high level of duel income households competing for these properties you can see why prices in Wales do not have that much further to fall or may even of bottomed for a large number of areas and property types. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valerius Posted June 10, 2009 Share Posted June 10, 2009 Before I begin, don't want to hear about individuals only earning this and that and houses here cost this much, these stats are all based on averages and from official sources.Believe the stats or not its the only figures we have to go on and they must be getting the data from somewhere, its the same stats and data that have been used for years. Data taken from the Latest LR & ONS/WAG release Incomes: http://www.statswales.wales.gov.uk/TableVi...px?ReportId=113 House Prices: http://www1.landregistry.gov.uk/assets/lib.../hpi162009e.pdf Average house price Wales = £122,241 Average male income Wales = £28,340 x 3.5 = £99,190 Mortgage Average house price Cardiff = £138,647 Average male income Cardiff = £32,656 x 3.5 = £114,296 Mortgage Average house price Swansea = £112,890 Average male income Swansea = £25,948 x 3.5 = £90,818 Mortgage Average house price Bridgend = £120,008 Average male income Bridgend = £30,628 x 3.5 = £107,198 Mortgage Average house price Carmarthenshire = £116,787 Average male income Carmarthenshire = £27,144 x 3.5 = £95,004 Mortgage Once you take off the 10-20% deposit it seems that 3.5x income mortgages will buy you an average house in Wales. When you consider the high level of duel income households competing for these properties you can see why prices in Wales do not have that much further to fall or may even of bottomed for a large number of areas and property types. HPC is finished. Only the deluded loonies of this site keep saying another 50% drop is on the cards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashinmattress Posted June 10, 2009 Share Posted June 10, 2009 HPC is finished. Only the deluded loonies of this site keep saying another 50% drop is on the cards. Ahh. The one who turns up on the forum just as the property market was really beginning to tank. Dude, your credibility is on the same plane as Hazel Blears or Richard Nixon. Go find a BTL fansite and toss off to some real property porn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonnybegood Posted June 10, 2009 Author Share Posted June 10, 2009 HPC is finished. Only the deluded loonies of this site keep saying another 50% drop is on the cards. We are not far away, certain areas are nearer the bottom than others. I would say a further 8 - 15% on average depending on area and property type should do it. Don't expect many bears to reply to this thread, the facts are staring them in the face but they tend to ignore them when it does not mention a further 50% to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valerius Posted June 10, 2009 Share Posted June 10, 2009 (edited) Ahh.The one who turns up on the forum just as the property market was really beginning to tank. Dude, your credibility is on the same plane as Hazel Blears or Richard Nixon. Go find a BTL fansite and toss off to some real property porn. Reality is catching up with you? Take a chill pill. Edit to add: use of the past tense...[Property Market was beginning to tank]. Good admission. It is behind us now. Time to move on perhaps? Edited June 10, 2009 by Valerius Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kazuya Posted June 10, 2009 Share Posted June 10, 2009 We are not far away, certain areas are nearer the bottom than others.I would say a further 8 - 15% on average depending on area and property type should do it. Don't expect many bears to reply to this thread, the facts are staring them in the face but they tend to ignore them when it does not mention a further 50% to go. A further 50%? No, I think a further 20%-30% from the 20% already off is realistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest spp Posted June 10, 2009 Share Posted June 10, 2009 (edited) Those places in Swansea (near average price) most people on this planet wouldn't touch with a barge pole! (Trust me I Know) The rest near the Gower/mumbles, where you would live... are way overpriced! So yes...expect further falls! As for cardiff...a quick search for flats/apartments in the cardiff area on wrongmove will give you a figure of over 800! Edited June 10, 2009 by spp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Number79 Posted June 10, 2009 Share Posted June 10, 2009 Reality is catching up with you? Take a chill pill. Edit to add: use of the past tense...[Property Market was beginning to tank]. Good admission. It is behind us now. Time to move on perhaps? why do the bulls here just spout crap but never have any hard data or fact to back up their mouth. be interesting to see your comments on this thread http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...116499&st=0 although I suspect the bulls are absent from there for a reason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
givemethegun Posted June 10, 2009 Share Posted June 10, 2009 I am a little amazed by those averages and indeed by the ones closer to home http://www.somerset.gov.uk/somerset/cultur...index/earnings/ I thought the average was around 24k. Why is Bridgend such a dump if they all earn 30k? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valerius Posted June 10, 2009 Share Posted June 10, 2009 why do the bulls here just spout crap but never have any hard data or fact to back up their mouth.be interesting to see your comments on this thread http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...116499&st=0 although I suspect the bulls are absent from there for a reason. Check the LR figures for the Wales region. HPs up in March and April this year. Fact. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guillotine Posted June 10, 2009 Share Posted June 10, 2009 HPC is finished. Only the deluded loonies of this site keep saying another 50% drop is on the cards. If the average male salary in Wales is pushing £30K then perhaps we really are living in the miracle economy. WTF? Those are figures I would associate with the City. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Number79 Posted June 10, 2009 Share Posted June 10, 2009 Check the LR figures for the Wales region. HPs up in March and April this year. Fact. woohoo! Two whole months up, thats it then....recession is all over ...business as usual is it? Look back at past recessions. I presume that you understand what bear and bull traps are and about market sentiment and how things do not just go straight up and down. If you can't be bothered doing any real research then just look at the thread that I linked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Number79 Posted June 10, 2009 Share Posted June 10, 2009 If the average male salary in Wales is pushing £30K then perhaps we really are living in the miracle economy.WTF? Those are figures I would associate with the City. I think that £30k is the total earnings for all average males combined Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
givemethegun Posted June 10, 2009 Share Posted June 10, 2009 "Please note that due to small sample sizes it is also not advisable to make year-on-year comparisons at a local authority level... As the results come from a survey, the results are sample-based estimates and therefore subject to differing degrees of sampling variability, i.e. the true value for any measure lies in a differing range about the estimated value" Not too sure what that means or how it compares with mean wage figures from the ONS website. I still find an average wage of 30k in Bridgend a bit unlikely - what government bodies are down that way (DVLA is Swansea ofc).. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wonderpup Posted June 10, 2009 Share Posted June 10, 2009 If the average male salary in Wales is pushing £30K then perhaps we really are living in the miracle economy. I lived in north wales for a while and even during the boom local wages were more like 15-18 K than 30. whats the point of building an argument on statistics anyway- like the inmates of guantameo they can be made to say just about anything. The reality is that wales is poor- and most people there do not earn big money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mixle Posted June 10, 2009 Share Posted June 10, 2009 I think that £30k is the total earnings for all average males combined Multiplied by the velocity of money Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonnybegood Posted June 10, 2009 Author Share Posted June 10, 2009 If the average male salary in Wales is pushing £30K then perhaps we really are living in the miracle economy.WTF? Those are figures I would associate with the City. I have been saying it on here for a long time, people really do underestimate what people are earning out there in the real not cyber world. Wales is no different when it comes to many of the public sector jobs, a copper in Wales earns similar if not the same as a copper in Surrey, same for teachers, doctors, dentists, firemen etc etc. The private sector is shrinking and there lies the biggest difference in wages across the different parts of the uk, not public sector. Not sure but would of thought that Tesco , Sainsburys etc pay the same across the uk as well, a guy who is decorating the house at the moment was telling me his brother who works night shifts in Tesco stacking the shelves is earning over £20k per year. So £30k average wage does not seem that far off the mark. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guillotine Posted June 10, 2009 Share Posted June 10, 2009 I'm reeling from those figures really. I'm going to have to re-evaluate. They can't be correct. Thirty thousand pounds? Per person? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Miyagi Posted June 10, 2009 Share Posted June 10, 2009 (edited) In reality those average saleries are way of the mark. I think you would be better using a median figure to give a more accurate assessment. By the way I live in South Wales, have a professional graduate job and only earn a couple of grand over the so called average. Edit to add The average 3 bed semi in my home town (working class) in the Eastern Valleys is still between 130k and 150k around 5 times my salary. Edited June 10, 2009 by superdez Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guillotine Posted June 10, 2009 Share Posted June 10, 2009 I have been saying it on here for a long time, people really do underestimate what people are earning out there in the real not cyber world.Wales is no different when it comes to many of the public sector jobs, a copper in Wales earns similar if not the same as a copper in Surrey, same for teachers, doctors, dentists, firemen etc etc. The private sector is shrinking and there lies the biggest difference in wages across the different parts of the uk, not public sector. Not sure but would of thought that Tesco , Sainsburys etc pay the same across the uk as well, a guy who is decorating the house at the moment was telling me his brother who works night shifts in Tesco stacking the shelves is earning over £20k per year. So £30k average wage does not seem that far off the mark. You must be onto something. I'd like to compare the average wage of a welsh public servant over a headbanging private sector mong in the working class heartlands of SouthEast England, over the last ten years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashinmattress Posted June 10, 2009 Share Posted June 10, 2009 Yes, it's a rather dubious figure, that 'average' salary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huw Posted June 10, 2009 Share Posted June 10, 2009 (edited) I'm reeling from those figures really. I'm going to have to re-evaluate.They can't be correct. Thirty thousand pounds? Per person? It doesn't feel correct. But where it says "average male income" I suspect it really means "average working male income including tax credits". In which case those who are economically inactive, and possibly those doing casual/seasonal work, are not counted*. It would be interesting to know the basis of the statistics, and also what the picture will be like when then inevitable public sector cutbacks begin. Wider point: reaching long term affordability norm <> reaching the bottom; markets overshoot. And reaching the bottom <> HPI imminent, we could spend years bumping along. * edit: the point being there's a hell of a lot of these in Wales. Edited June 10, 2009 by huw Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashinmattress Posted June 10, 2009 Share Posted June 10, 2009 It doesn't feel correct.But where it says "average male income" I suspect it really means "average working male income including tax credits". In which case those who are economically inactive, and possibly those doing casual/seasonal work, are not counted*. It would be interesting to know the basis of the statistics, and also what the picture will be like when then inevitable public sector cutbacks begin. Wider point: reaching long term affordability norm <> reaching the bottom; markets overshoot. And reaching the bottom <> HPI imminent, we could spend years bumping along. * edit: the point being there's a hell of a lot of these in Wales. Maybe the 'Dirty Sanchez' crew has skewed the statistics to the upside? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
givemethegun Posted June 10, 2009 Share Posted June 10, 2009 (edited) night shifts in Tesco stacking the shelves is earning over £20k per year. Sounds like a long old night. A limited survey sample if that is how they calculate an average then it is pretty meaningless really.. Hope the poor impoverished working under me dont see those numbers! House prices down Carmarthenshire way certainly a bit more attractive [edit: still mental but compare to here..] & the people are very friendly/chatty, best dump my current job and get writing to Tesco's lol Edited June 10, 2009 by givemethegun Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonnybegood Posted June 10, 2009 Author Share Posted June 10, 2009 (edited) Yes, it's a rather dubious figure, that 'average' salary. If I was honest I would say it is slightly on the high side, but it can't be a million miles away, I mean if it says £30k, its not going to be £23k, more than likely somewhere in the region £25k - £28k, which compared to average property prices still makes Wales fairly near to the golden 3.5x single income to buy the average property. Another point if the information comes from the ONS then they would be using the same techniques across the UK, so whatever the figure for Wales it is calculated the same way in Surrey , London, Manchester etc. Edited June 10, 2009 by Jonnybegood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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