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Kazuya

Uk Economy Grew In April And May

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A respected independent economic think tank has said the economy actually grew over the last two months.

The National Institute for Economic and Social Research, who use a similar economic model as the Treasury, said there were indiciations the economy grew by 0.2% in April and 0.1% in May.

The group attributed the small, but significant growth given the scale of the economic downturn, to the performance of the industrial and service sectors.

They say that it shows the economy has stabilised due to the performance of industry and services.

It means the group now agree with Alastair Darling's budget projections of growth this year - that growth will return.

Last week a services sector index recorded a 51.7 reading - making the UK the first major developed country with accelerating service sector activity.

Furthermore, today the Office of National Statistics reported that industrial output had grown in April for the first time in more than a year.

RECOVEREH! :lol:

Source: http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Business/...ocial_Research_

Edited by Eiji

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Didn't the FT conduct a survey of economists a couple of weeks ago ~ and came up with similar findings?

Yep, those economists who all saw the crash coming from miles off. They'll definitely be the ones to ask. :lol:

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The National Institute of Economic and Social Research, abbreviated to NIESR, is a Government funded[1] research organisation located in the City of Westminster, London, England. It was established in 1938 with funding from the Rockefeller Foundation, the Pilgrim Trust, the Leverhulme Trust and the Halley Stewart Trust. The most important output of NIESR has been a macroeconomic model of the UK economy which is used to produce forecasts of the UK economy, published quarterly in the National Institute Economic Review. Forecasts are also published for various other OECD countries. Dr. Martin Weale, CBE, has been the Institute Director since 1995, and Lord Burns has been President since 2003.

The bit in bold says it all really...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Inst...Social_Research

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The National Institute of Economic and Social Research, abbreviated to NIESR, is a Government funded[1] research organisation located in the City of Westminster, London, England. It was established in 1938 with funding from the Rockefeller Foundation, the Pilgrim Trust, the Leverhulme Trust and the Halley Stewart Trust. The most important output of NIESR has been a macroeconomic model of the UK economy which is used to produce forecasts of the UK economy, published quarterly in the National Institute Economic Review. Forecasts are also published for various other OECD countries. Dr. Martin Weale, CBE, has been the Institute Director since 1995, and Lord Burns has been President since 2003.

Where's me lizard repellant!!

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Hmm.

Perhaps I'm being simplistic but :-

Deficit for 2009 = 12% of GDP ie approx 1% per month.

Even if it's true, a 0.3% increase in GDP over two months doesn't sound that great in that context. 2% of GDP has been borrowed from the future to increase GDP by 0.3%.

The Recovereh is Nigh!

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Virtually every academic in the UK is government funded, AS THEY WORK FOR UNIVERSITIES WHICH ARE FUNDED BY THE GOVERNMENT, are you really suggesting that all academics in the UK are parroting a government line becuase of where they receive their funding from.

The small amount of growth seen is relative to the preceding months GDP. After hitting rock bottom in March there is a small levelling off resulting in slight growth. This follows three quarters of declines. Year on Year GDP is still down and it will take several sustained quarters of growth to get GDP back to June 2008 levels.

It doesn't mean that House Prices will stop falling or that unemployment will stop going up. Technical growth has commenced relative to a reduced baseline but it'll feel like the economies in recession for at least the next year.

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Based on the highly scientific figures I collect myself (aka wot's on at Moo n' Mrs. Moo's places of work), that doesn't sound too far fetched to me, especially for her place which saw a bit of action in April (new budgets time) but has since gone utterly dead again.

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Government funded think tank. That's me convinced then.

You prefer to get your all your information from privately funded VIs? :unsure:

Its trendy to shut down the brain and say government equals lies. However that is true a lot less often than people imagine.

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Based on the highly scientific figures I collect myself (aka wot's on at Moo n' Mrs. Moo's places of work), that doesn't sound too far fetched to me, especially for her place which saw a bit of action in April (new budgets time) but has since gone utterly dead again.

I mentioned this on another thread that a lot of business where coming to the year end of their budgets and this could give a bounce to the GDP figures.

How many govt depts have had their year end this quarter?

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You prefer to get your all your information from privately funded VIs? :unsure:

Its trendy to shut down the brain and say government equals lies. However that is true a lot less often than people imagine.

Except as we all know you are a govt funded stooge paid to spread these lies over the internet. ;)

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I mentioned this on another thread that a lot of business where coming to the year end of their budgets and this could give a bounce to the GDP figures.

In the specific case of the missus' place, it's more a case of new budgets in April than spending out old ones in March.

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Not being a conspiracy buff myself, but it is obviously coincidence that there was an announcement last week that the first Q drop had become -2.2% revised from -1.9% (IIRC).

So now we know where this 0.3% rise has come from. <_<

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OIC, some of our biggest manufacturers, the car plants are on sabitical,yet production os increasing.

now that Honda and others are back on short time, it must surely be BOOM time again.

thats if you think that an increase of 4/6d is good and worthwhile.

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The BOE has printed £125B of new money and injected it into the economy (about 10% of GDP). In response to this growth of 0.1 - 0.2 % month seems scarily weak.

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This recession isn't meeting HPC expectations. :lol:

i heard the growth was in manufacturing....not the whole economy.

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The BOE has printed £125B of new money and injected it into the economy (about 10% of GDP). In response to this growth of 0.1 - 0.2 % month seems scarily weak.

That's what I was thinking ! Remember GDP is simply a measure of the amount of money changing hands. I don't think £125bn is as much as 10% of GDP, but then add all the Govnt borrowing -where's all the money actually gone ? The true facts behind the spin of growth is actually that tons of money have been thrown down the drain.

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