Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Wimbledon88

Is The Future One Big Depression?

Recommended Posts

The US is in such hock right now and there is worrying talk from not just Russian but American analysts pointing out that the US simply cannot honour its debts. To my mind, if this talk continues, the US has only one solution - to MAKE the markets collapse to MAKE everyone run into Treasuries and probably stop the dollar from depreciating to parity with the Zimbabwean currency. So like it or not, we HAVE to have a crash pretty soon. But one crash will not solve the problem, because the only way out of that is to pay off the debt, which the US cannot do for several generations. So the only possible way out is more and more crashes, getting bigger and bigger and bigger as the US debt figures grow ever more humungous.

Anyway, that is just how my untrained mind works. And everyone is going to have to play ball - Europe, Japan, China - because if they don't they are going to find themselves on the "axis of evil" and attacked. Yes, even us.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The US is in such hock right now and there is worrying talk from not just Russian but American analysts pointing out that the US simply cannot honour its debts. To my mind, if this talk continues, the US has only one solution - to MAKE the markets collapse to MAKE everyone run into Treasuries and probably stop the dollar from depreciating to parity with the Zimbabwean currency. So like it or not, we HAVE to have a crash pretty soon. But one crash will not solve the problem, because the only way out of that is to pay off the debt, which the US cannot do for several generations. So the only possible way out is more and more crashes, getting bigger and bigger and bigger as the US debt figures grow ever more humungous.

Anyway, that is just how my untrained mind works. And everyone is going to have to play ball - Europe, Japan, China - because if they don't they are going to find themselves on the "axis of evil" and attacked. Yes, even us.

I think your analysis of the outcome of a dollar collapse is a bit fanciful, but i could see the beginnings of civil unrest in America, and that could lead to civil war. As for the US lashing out at the rest of the world, I think the rest of us will be so mired in the Brown stuff anyway that a war in america would probably pass unnoticed

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The US is in such hock right now and there is worrying talk from not just Russian but American analysts pointing out that the US simply cannot honour its debts.

Monetisation of the debts is the only option, there simply is no alternative. It's a big "Scr*w you" to the creditor countries of the world followed by a promise we won't do it again, honest guv.

When the feedback goes positive between monetisation and interest rate hikes, it's the end of the financial world as we know it. Until it happens, we get deflation and cheaper houses. I'm trying not to be alarmist but there are no other possibilities, Western workers will prefer default rather than work for 3rd world wages.

To buy a house, you need to wait for some more deflation and hope the detonate button isn't pressed until you have bought. For STR's like myself, its a nervous time. I hope for unemployment-induced forced selling this year so I can buy outright and not worry about the consequences.

VMR.

[/end cgnao mode/]

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Maybe this is naive, but I can't see how creditor countries can stop America and Britain running high inflation to reduce the real value of the debt... I assume these debts are mostly denominated in debtor country currencies? I imagine this would have a similar effect to a straight default in that future creditors would expect higher interest payments to cover the risk of lending to such shyster countries, but if done steadily with a straight face we might get away with it. Of course inflation is not great, but neither is a big wedge of the tax take going to interest payments every year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Machines, industrial robots, computers, servers, warehouse automation systems etc.. are gradually taking over all human work.

The current economic system cannot function in this reality. As the fundamental principle is people get paid for the work they do, and consume with the money they were paid. If they are not doing the work anymore, they cannot consume.

As long as the leaders of society offer no solution to this fundamental change or dont' even see it, there will be a permanent depression getting worse year by year. To start with there will be no stopping the horrific job loss each month. Actually at some point it will start cascading.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Machines, industrial robots, computers, servers, warehouse automation systems etc.. are gradually taking over all human work.

The current economic system cannot function in this reality. As the fundamental principle is people get paid for the work they do, and consume with the money they were paid. If they are not doing the work anymore, they cannot consume.

They missed that bit out on Tomorrow's World.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest มร หล&#3
The US is in such hock right now and there is worrying talk from not just Russian but American analysts pointing out that the US simply cannot honour its debts. To my mind, if this talk continues, the US has only one solution - to MAKE the markets collapse to MAKE everyone run into Treasuries and probably stop the dollar from depreciating to parity with the Zimbabwean currency. So like it or not, we HAVE to have a crash pretty soon. But one crash will not solve the problem, because the only way out of that is to pay off the debt, which the US cannot do for several generations. So the only possible way out is more and more crashes, getting bigger and bigger and bigger as the US debt figures grow ever more humungous.

Anyway, that is just how my untrained mind works. And everyone is going to have to play ball - Europe, Japan, China - because if they don't they are going to find themselves on the "axis of evil" and attacked. Yes, even us.

So glad I live where I do.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   326 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.