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Wait & See

Ftse Climbing Back Out Of The Hole

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Again thanks for these. Not really what I was looking for, my fault for not being specific enough, but interesting non the less.

All those articles are a reference to the US debt status from the beginning of time. Anything on the UK?

Does anyone have anything on the household debt status for the last 12-24 months?

yes, open your eyes. :lol::lol::lol:

some clues:

4x4's & flash new cars

conservatories

foreign holidays

huge property extensions

2 people with no children living in a 4/5 bedroomed house

cleaners & factory workers with BTL properties

if you need any more help to clarify the UK's personal & public debt please speak with anyone or turn on the tv. :D

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you have been a member since Feb 2007 & you are asking for charts to back stuff up that has been clarified for well over a year ... :blink::blink:

& ps- you work in IT so it is impossible for you to spend the best of your years living......FACT. ;)

although, I see a long sabatical coming your way very soon. This could be your redemption.

I asked for evidence because I couldn't give 2 sh!ts what the US National Debt was before and therefore not bothered to look. I simply asked the question as I knew I would get the charts now I'm interested. I'm not going to try and trip up someone with over 8k posts to his name in 12 months.

If I get laid off I won't spend my days on here moaning about how life has delt me a cack hand. Take heed.

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yes, open your eyes. :lol::lol::lol:

some clues:

4x4's & flash new cars

conservatories

foreign holidays

huge property extensions

2 people with no children living in a 4/5 bedroomed house

cleaners & factory workers with BTL properties

if you need any more help to clarify the UK's personal & public debt please speak with anyone or turn on the tv. :D

Sorry, I will not be spoon fed anecdotal cr@p. You can relate right? After all that's what you preach to every person you come across I bet when it comes to government propaganda, Vis etc. I like evidence.

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I asked for evidence because I couldn't give 2 sh!ts what the US National Debt was before and therefore not bothered to look. I simply asked the question as I knew I would get the charts now I'm interested. I'm not going to try and trip up someone with over 8k posts to his name in 12 months.

If I get laid off I won't spend my days on here moaning about how life has delt me a cack hand. Take heed.

may I take you back to your first post to me earlier:

FTSE 100

3,512 on 03/03/2009

4,404 on 09/06/2009

Well you've been on the money so far. :rolleyes:

??

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Sorry, I will not be spoon fed anecdotal cr@p. You can relate right? After all that's what you preach to every person you come across I bet when it comes to government propaganda, Vis etc. I like evidence.

It was pure anecdotal that called Q1 2007 correctly, when the majority of stats said otherwise. ;)B)

sometimes my little virtual qwerty warrior you need to apply some real life experience & stop looking for a computer program to tell you what to do.

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Again thanks for these. Not really what I was looking for, my fault for not being specific enough, but interesting non the less.

All those articles are a reference to the US debt status from the beginning of time. Anything on the UK?

Does anyone have anything on the household debt status for the last 12-24 months?

http://cluaran.free.fr/debt.html

This one was for the UK debt clock, although it's not working for me.

Parameters of the counter (estimates updated 2009-04-23) :

UK debt end 1997 : 413,2 G£, i. e. 49,8 % of GDP (ONS)

UK debt end 1998 : 410,2 G£, i. e. 46,7 % of GDP (ONS)

UK debt end 1999 : 405,7 G£, i. e. 43,7 % of GDP (ONS)

UK debt end 2000 : 400,6 G£, i. e. 41,0 % of GDP (ONS)

UK debt end 2001 : 385,5 G£, i. e. 37,7 % of GDP (ONS)

UK debt end 2002 : 402,9 G£, i. e. 37,5 % of GDP (ONS)

UK debt end 2003 : 441,1 G£, i. e. 38,7 % of GDP (ONS)

UK debt end 2004 : 487,9 G£, i. e. 40,4 % of GDP (ONS)

UK debt end 2005 : 529,4 G£, i. e. 42,3 % of GDP (ONS)

UK debt end 2006 : 573,3 G£, i. e. 43,4 % of GDP (ONS)

UK debt end 2007 : 618,4 G£, i. e. 44,2 % of GDP (ONS)

UK debt end 2008 : 750,3 G£, i. e. 52,0 % of GDP (ONS)

UK public deficit 2009 : 78 G£ (i. e. 2467 £ per second)

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Moneyweek today has another artice saying that the markets are about to correct... but they just continue on ever upwards.

I am still a big bear on the markets simply because of what I read about the rubbish stocks driving the bounce, about banks buying and shorting shares, etc, etc.

At the risk of sounding paranoid, I think that there is a great deal of FUD, hype and manipulation going on at the current time.

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Moneyweek today has another artice saying that the markets are about to correct... but they just continue on ever upwards.

I am still a big bear on the markets simply because of what I read about the rubbish stocks driving the bounce, about banks buying and shorting shares, etc, etc.

At the risk of sounding paranoid, I think that there is a great deal of FUD, hype and manipulation going on at the current time.

As far as I can tell, stock markets are exhibiting classic pyramid behaviour. There is simply no substance - only greater fools.

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http://www.creditaction.org.uk/debt-statistics.html

Total UK personal debt

Total UK personal debt at the end of April 2009 stood at £1,459bn. This has slowed further to 1.8% in the last 12 months which equates to an increase of ~ £22.4bn (the increase was ~£116bn in January 2008).

Total secured lending on dwellings at the end of April 2009 stood at £1,227bn. This has slowed further by 0.4% to 1.5% in the last 12 months.

Total consumer credit lending to individuals at the end of April 2009 was £232bn. This has continued to fall to 2.9% in the last 12 months.

Total lending in April 2009 grew by £1.3bn; secured lending grew by £1.0bn in the month; consumer credit lending grew by £0.3bn (total lending in January 2008 grew by £8.4bn).

Average household debt in the UK is ~ £9,280 (excluding mortgages). This figure increases to £21,570 if the average is based on the number of households who actually have some form of unsecured loan.

Average household debt in the UK is ~ £58,370 (including mortgages).

If you add to this the 2009 budget figure for public sector net debt (PSND) expected in 2013-14 then this figure rises to £116,210 per household.

Average owed by every UK adult is ~ £30,500 (including mortgages).

More at the link.

Couldn't find this earlier.

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I am still a big bear on the markets simply because of what I read about the rubbish stocks driving the bounce, about banks buying and shorting shares, etc, etc.

At the risk of sounding paranoid, I think that there is a great deal of FUD, hype and manipulation going on at the current time.

As far as I can tell, stock markets are exhibiting classic pyramid behaviour. There is simply no substance - only greater fools.

spot-on imo. :)

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well manufacturing was up 4/6d, so clearly THATS a green shoot and maybe we will see the OFFICIAL END to a technical recession.

course, in real life, that mean that IRs will rise and the HPI will revert to HPC PDQ...OK

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Well I put my money into (a global spread of) equities last November and I´m quite happy. Yes the market s had further to drop but they have more than made up for it since. I have certainly done a dam site better than I would had I stuck the money in a bank or, heaven forbid, invested in property.

I can´t understand why people are saying things like ´There is no basis for the rise´. So, what? There never has been, never will be. Equity markets, be they going up or down, have never acted rationally.

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I think the FTSE has a lot further to fall yet.

I am NOT easily fooled.

Warren Buffet is quoted as saying.... buy from pessimists, sell to optimists.

I see you are a pessimist and am willing to buy all your shares from you.

TW.jpg

(The FTSE has a lot further to rise, as well.)

post-9120-1244639869_thumb.jpg

Edited by PotNoodle

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Warren Buffet is quoted as saying.... buy from pessimists, sell to optimists.

I see you are a pessimist and am willing to buy all your shares from you.

(The FTSE has a lot further to rise, as well.)

ok PotNoodle, we are all entitled to our opinion.

We get to find out in a few weeks/months anyway.

look to the past for a vision of the future. :ph34r:

This IS the big one, great depression 2 or the greater depression, so why would the sm only fall about 50% then, rather than the 90% I am expecting ?

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Guest Winnie

FTSE really struggles to break 4500. It tried very hard again today and failed. IMHO the downturn is imminent......

- Banks being paid by Fed to manipulate markets are soon to be let off leash (TARP) to short and play again. they ahve recapitalised so now they can let the markets drop whilst they scoot off to the Hamptons

- US Treasuries in danger - also see russian story today - timed to affect big UST sale tomorrow. Fed will always protect T's as last resort

- Technical thresholds being reached and resisted everywhere

- Oil high will spook consumer confidence and spending

- Mortgage rate in US has soared

- Next earning season will be grim (except for the fiddled banks)

...the same fools who created the bubble are doing it again - look what happened the last time - a blow off top and then craaaaaasssshhhhhhh..........

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My pension is about 90% cash.

Nobody goes bankrupt from having too much cash.

When this market catches up with reality it will do so with horrifying speed :o .

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FTSE really struggles to break 4500. It tried very hard again today and failed. IMHO the downturn is imminent......

- Banks being paid by Fed to manipulate markets are soon to be let off leash (TARP) to short and play again. they ahve recapitalised so now they can let the markets drop whilst they scoot off to the Hamptons

- US Treasuries in danger - also see russian story today - timed to affect big UST sale tomorrow. Fed will always protect T's as last resort

- Technical thresholds being reached and resisted everywhere

- Oil high will spook consumer confidence and spending

- Mortgage rate in US has soared

- Next earning season will be grim (except for the fiddled banks)

...the same fools who created the bubble are doing it again - look what happened the last time - a blow off top and then craaaaaasssshhhhhhh..........

& that's what confuses me Winnie. Why don't a lot of posters on here see what we are seeing ? I don't get it sometimes. I genuinely don't think they are on a wind-up mission, they really do believe stocks have bottomed.

oh dear.

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Banking stock has fallen well over 50%. If you buy right at the bottom (BKIR at 12c) and they stay afloat, you'll make money in a few years. (Those who bought 10k's worth at 12c or there abouts can now buy a nice 180k property in cash.)

RBS too are stupidly cheap and look how well Barclays has done. If you hold long term and they drop back, buy more shares.

One day you'll be very wealthy. Maybe not this year or next though.

Edited by Wait & See

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Well I put my money into (a global spread of) equities last November and I´m quite happy. Yes the market s had further to drop but they have more than made up for it since. I have certainly done a dam site better than I would had I stuck the money in a bank or, heaven forbid, invested in property.

I can´t understand why people are saying things like ´There is no basis for the rise´. So, what? There never has been, never will be. Equity markets, be they going up or down, have never acted rationally.

I think you are being a bit unfair. As far as I can tell markets are usually priced according to combination of current earnings and predicted earnings.

If dividends were £5 per stock per year, and the stock cost £1.. it would make sense for it to be bid up in value. If a stock cost £100 and dividends were 1p per year it would safe to assume the opposite would happen. In that respect I believe markets are rational.

I think the thing that skews the figures the most is anticipated income. Like the tech bubble where people were willing to bid prices up way over any dividend yields because they thought the companies would become more profitable in the future.

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I think you are being a bit unfair. As far as I can tell markets are usually priced according to combination of current earnings and predicted earnings.

We´ll just have to agree to disagree on this. :rolleyes:

Yes of course, there is a relationship between earnings per share and the price. The main thing that drives share prices however is sentiment. The earnings outlook was little different at the beginning of March to what it is now but shares are over 30% higher. What will determine how they go in the near future is not companies earnings forecasts but how the markets feel about the economy.

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we need some TA from Noel to clarify this I'm afraid. ;)

I gather that Noel is very good at TA.

I'm on tenterhooks as I wait for his analysis.

I'm sure it will be head and shoulders above the rest!

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I gather that Noel is very good at TA.

I'm on tenterhooks as I wait for his analysis.

I'm sure it will be head and shoulders above the rest!

:D

c'mon Noel, give us some charts'n'stuff.

ps - I don't think he does 'humour'

totally unrelated edit - I always thought it was tenderhooks you know, until watching QI one night. Tenterhook's

Edited by grumpy-old-man-returns

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  • 395 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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