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Sybil13

Is The Cat About To Be Declared Dead

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CEBR said at Easter:

Analysis of housing transactions data shows that July almost always marks the peak month for moving home. With a typical three to four month lead time from first enquiry to completion the CEBR says it can see that the Easter weekend is one of the most important dates in the estate agent’s calendar. Will this weekend mark the start of the turning point in the housing market, however, or another crushing disappointment for those estate agents lucky enough to still be in a job?

I am just trying to work out just how much more bullish ramping we are going to have to put up with before reality breaks the cycle of denial.

I think mortgage approvals on the whole do tend to be higher in the first half of a year than the 2nd.

Given that ecnomomists agree that until approvals double property prices will continue to fall and currently mortgage lending by building societies is 60 per cent lower than last year, according to new figures from the Building Societies Association (BSA), it is hard to see where the green shoots can come from if "Easter weekend is one of the most important dates in a EA's calander".

However, yesterday we were told:

Homebuyers Left High and Dry as Mortgage Offers are withdrawn

Lenders are increasingly withdrawing written mortgage offers just before exchange, reports PPR, leaving chains in disarray and homebuyers and sellers in serious financial difficulties.

Buyers normally assume that a written mortgage offer means their finance is secured. But in fact, lenders are frequently making written offers and withdrawing them; which they are legally permitted to do within the small print. Prior to the credit crunch this was very rare and usually only occurred when the borrower's circumstances changed adversely after the mortgage application was submitted, increasing the risk to the lender.

Over the last few months, however, there has been a notable rise in the number of cases where lenders have withdrawn mortgage offers with no explanation, or attributed it to something as trivial as one missed credit card payment, resulting in the sale collapsing.

And we were told:

Chains breaks as valuations are based on todays prices

So if approvals need to double , and many of those are withdrawn at a later date and if even then the valuation breaks the chain, and this is during the "peak" months for moving, what, in truth, is the rest of the year going to be like?

Isn't this why Miles Shipside said:

that lack of mortgage availability is hindering market recovery as sellers who have dealt with the market reality and drastically dropped their asking price are faced with buyers unable to obtain finance....

.... "Until banks get their own houses in order, the active minority of sellers and agents who have drastically adjusted pricing will remain frustrated by the limited functioning of the financial services sector."

So, after its initial optimism the Rightmove index enforces the realisation that the UK property market recovery hinges on two things: vendor realism and mortgage availability. The latter more than likely hinged on a recovery to the wider UK economy, which in my opinion is also necessary to increase buyer numbers sufficiently to bring vendor realism.

Being a bear of little brain it is hard to think things through and take all factors into consideration, but if the average tom on the market now is something like 20 weeks , and if it takes approx 3 months to complete on a property (during the good times), I think anyone trying to sell from this point forward (unless they are very very lucky) have missed the boat for getting away with just 30% from peak . And any buyer currently in the process of buying I think will be thinking seroiusly about how much they are willing to part with on the day they sign the documents don't you?

With lenders now starting to put up interest rates is it possible we have now gone through the worst of what the FT called the "Mortar Torture"?

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I am just trying to work out just how much more bullish ramping we are going to have to put up with before reality breaks the cycle of denial.

I would think a constant overlay of green-shoot twaddle can be expected for at least a decade.

The only alternative is to execute the guilty.

I believe two feet down is the ideal depth for decomposition to promote tree growth?

Thus we would have true green shoots, & the VIs would at last have been of some use.

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CEBR said at Easter:

I am just trying to work out just how much more bullish ramping we are going to have to put up with before reality breaks the cycle of denial.

I think mortgage approvals on the whole do tend to be higher in the first half of a year than the 2nd.

Given that ecnomomists agree that until approvals double property prices will continue to fall and currently mortgage lending by building societies is 60 per cent lower than last year, according to new figures from the Building Societies Association (BSA), it is hard to see where the green shoots can come from if "Easter weekend is one of the most important dates in a EA's calander".

However, yesterday we were told:

Homebuyers Left High and Dry as Mortgage Offers are withdrawn

And we were told:

Chains breaks as valuations are based on todays prices

So if approvals need to double , and many of those are withdrawn at a later date and if even then the valuation breaks the chain, and this is during the "peak" months for moving, what, in truth, is the rest of the year going to be like?

Isn't this why Miles Shipside said:

Being a bear of little brain it is hard to think things through and take all factors into consideration, but if the average tom on the market now is something like 20 weeks , and if it takes approx 3 months to complete on a property (during the good times), I think anyone trying to sell from this point forward (unless they are very very lucky) have missed the boat for getting away with just 30% from peak . And any buyer currently in the process of buying I think will be thinking seroiusly about how much they are willing to part with on the day they sign the documents don't you?

With lenders now starting to put up interest rates is it possible we have now gone through the worst of what the FT called the "Mortar Torture"?

Surely a fall in July is only to be expected, it won't necessarilly show whats happened to be a dead cat bounce.... in a rising market you can expect (pretty much without fail I think) that demand /transactions/prices gallop away jan to July and then drop off... in a marginal market then you might find growth in prices in months up to July and the afterwards falls.... all this would surely show is stagnation not a return to one way prices (up or down).... if prices are reported to have risen in July then that will be much more serious as in a rising market july is normally weaker than june so to have july stronger than june in a falling market would be extraordinary....... it still wouldn't have me calling the bottom, but it would be unusual... I expect prices to show falls in July and also expect loads of people to get over excited, declaring an end to a dead cat bounce, return to falls, bear trap over etc when actually it will be nothing of the sort in reallity.

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I would think a constant overlay of green-shoot twaddle can be expected for at least a decade.

The only alternative is to execute the guilty.

I believe two feet down is the ideal depth for decomposition to promote tree growth?

Thus we would have true green shoots, & the VIs would at last have been of some use.

Sibley,

Re the execution, I thought a quick shot with a gun, that's humane at least, where exactly would we find your brain?

What kind of tree would you like to be? I can't imagine you as a might oak, more a weeping willow!

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Just like the last crash, the media will continue to ram imaginary green shoots down our throats until the bottom is reached unless hell breaks loose.

A stopped clock...

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Surely a fall in July is only to be expected, it won't necessarilly show whats happened to be a dead cat bounce.... in a rising market you can expect (pretty much without fail I think) that demand /transactions/prices gallop away jan to July and then drop off... in a marginal market then you might find growth in prices in months up to July and the afterwards falls.... all this would surely show is stagnation not a return to one way prices (up or down).... if prices are reported to have risen in July then that will be much more serious as in a rising market july is normally weaker than june so to have july stronger than june in a falling market would be extraordinary....... it still wouldn't have me calling the bottom, but it would be unusual... I expect prices to show falls in July and also expect loads of people to get over excited, declaring an end to a dead cat bounce, return to falls, bear trap over etc when actually it will be nothing of the sort in reallity.

Transactions and prices are virtualy all seasonally adjusted.

But your post doesn't appear to make any allowance for this.

Was that deliberate?

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Any gardener knows that in order to get green shoots to spring forth, you have to drop a lot of manure. I imagine the VIs are gardeners in their spare time.

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Surely a fall in July is only to be expected, it won't necessarilly show whats happened to be a dead cat bounce.... in a rising market you can expect (pretty much without fail I think) that demand /transactions/prices gallop away jan to July and then drop off... in a marginal market then you might find growth in prices in months up to July and the afterwards falls.... all this would surely show is stagnation not a return to one way prices (up or down).... if prices are reported to have risen in July then that will be much more serious as in a rising market july is normally weaker than june so to have july stronger than june in a falling market would be extraordinary....... it still wouldn't have me calling the bottom, but it would be unusual... I expect prices to show falls in July and also expect loads of people to get over excited, declaring an end to a dead cat bounce, return to falls, bear trap over etc when actually it will be nothing of the sort in reallity.

i think the fact that we live in unusual times could mean that there will be rises when there shouldn't be and falls when there shouldn't be.

It is possible that, for want of a better term, "Macro" forces override seasonal ones. As you have mentioned before, the volumes are also so low, (particularly now that NWide are pricing themselves out of the mortgage market, as reported on another thread), that the error bars on monthly figures get ever larger.

Personally, since I am only interested in buying in my area, I am de-coupling from the national figures and concentrating on looking at the local market, which at the moment has seen buyers returning, but in higher numbers than sellers hence a big support for prices right now.

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......... but multiple ID troll accounts on websites far and wide......

In future I will only ever respond in this way and send you lots of love because :

Hatred never ceases by hatred

But by love alone is healed

This is an ancient and eternal law.

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......... but multiple ID troll accounts on websites far and wide......

Thats a bit rich.. we know you only come here to wind us up!

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I think this post sums you up perfectly. A sick, twisted individual with no empathy or moral sense whatsoever.

Edited by fossildog

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CEBR said at Easter:

I am just trying to work out just how much more bullish ramping we are going to have to put up with before reality breaks the cycle of denial.

I think mortgage approvals on the whole do tend to be higher in the first half of a year than the 2nd.

Given that ecnomomists agree that until approvals double property prices will continue to fall and currently mortgage lending by building societies is 60 per cent lower than last year, according to new figures from the Building Societies Association (BSA), it is hard to see where the green shoots can come from if "Easter weekend is one of the most important dates in a EA's calander".

I think we will all be surprised to see rises continue much past July. What is interesting to me (don't have a link to hand) is that a lot more money has come into the market from cash buyers.. I think the numbers jumped from something like 15% to 30%. It will be interesting to see how long these cash buyers last, and what will happen to the market if they run out.

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I'm pretty sure a "dead cat bounce" refers to chart movements at or around the bottom of a market and is very different from the fabled "bull trap", which occurs when there are significant drops later.

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I'm pretty sure a "dead cat bounce" refers to chart movements at or around the bottom of a market and is very different from the fabled "bull trap", which occurs when there are significant drops later.

A dead cat bounce is a figurative term used by traders in the finance industry to describe a pattern wherein a spectacular decline in the price of a stock is immediately followed by a moderate and temporary rise before resuming its downward movement, with the connotation that the rise was not an indication of improving circumstances in the fundamentals of the stock. It is derived from the notion that "even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height".

Bull Trap: A false signal indicating that a declining trend in a stock or index has reversed and is heading upwards when, in fact, the security will continue to decline.

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QUOTE (andykn @ Jun 10 2009, 11:11 PM)

I'm pretty sure a "dead cat bounce" refers to chart movements at or around the bottom of a market and is very different from the fabled "bull trap", which occurs when there are significant drops later.

QUOTE (Wiki)

A dead cat bounce is a figurative term used by traders in the finance industry to describe a pattern wherein a spectacular decline in the price of a stock is immediately followed by a moderate and temporary rise before resuming its downward movement, with the connotation that the rise was not an indication of improving circumstances in the fundamentals of the stock. It is derived from the notion that "even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great heigh

QUOTE (investopedia)

Bull Trap: A false signal indicating that a declining trend in a stock or index has reversed and is heading upwards when, in fact, the security will continue to decline.

Thanks for that and for a bear of little brain the difference is?

Don't they both mean what the BOE and CML have confirmed when they said, "the green shoots have no roots"? :unsure:

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