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cashinmattress

When Will Unemployment Start To Fall?

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When will unemployment start to fall?

As UK unemployment continues to lurch towards 3 million there are serious concerns that the ongoing economic crisis will hit many consumers and employees in the UK for many years to come. The current figure stands at around 2.2 million but many analysts expect this to rise to more than 3 million over the next 12 months with little likelihood of a significant reduction in the foreseeable future.

This is the worst-case scenario for the UK government because not only does it reduce tax income from workers, but it also increases social security benefit payments and places more and more pressure on the UK government budget. This is a budget which is literally hundreds of millions of pounds in deficit and set to grow substantially over the next few years. There are many people who believe it will take at least a decade for the UK economy to recover to former levels and many in the country will hit rock bottom with their finances in the short to medium term.

One of the main concerns is the fact that despite the billions and billions of pounds the UK government has poured into the UK economy we have yet to see any significant improvement and businesses are still struggling to survive.

Yep. Turns out that all the QE cash which our resident HPI numpties are claiming to be the savior of HPI has actually done jack squat for the working classes who actually buy and sell houses....

Go figure.

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It seems obvious that we had over consumption before, fuelled by cheap credit and MEW-ing. Things won't 'go back to normal' and they were never normal, so I can see unemployment remaining high for years, especially when the public sector cuts start.

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It just sickens me that idiots use 2007 as a benchmark year for the "recovery".

Ain't gonna happen, not for a long long time.

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The bankers seem OK.

Finance has been hit very hard - How many bankers/financial sector workers from Bear Stearns, Leaman, Goldman Sachs, JPM, Lloyds and countless Hedge Funds have been laid off?? Hundreds of Thousands.

Or do you forget that because they were laid off 18 months ago?

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It seems obvious that we had over consumption before, fuelled by cheap credit and MEW-ing. Things won't 'go back to normal' and they were never normal, so I can see unemployment remaining high for years, especially when the public sector cuts start.

Id love to see stats on how many people actually MEW-ed and to what extent. I don't know anybody who did it. I read some horror stories of extreme cases but these aren't the norm.

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Id love to see stats on how many people actually MEW-ed and to what extent. I don't know anybody who did it. I read some horror stories of extreme cases but these aren't the norm.

mew.gif

There was a lot of it about.

post-10258-1244563012_thumb.png

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Id love to see stats on how many people actually MEW-ed and to what extent. I don't know anybody who did it. I read some horror stories of extreme cases but these aren't the norm.

Probably nearly every house that in the last twenty years, has had any of the following :

1 An extension built

2 A consvertory added

3 A refitted kitchen

4 A refitted bathroom

5 A new roof fitted

6 Double glazing installed

7 Central heating installed

That's just the ones that spent the money on the house. I am sure that others MEW'd and went on holiday, or bought a car, or started a business.

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Probably nearly every house that in the last twenty years, has had any of the following :

1 An extension built

2 A consvertory added

3 A refitted kitchen

4 A refitted bathroom

5 A new roof fitted

6 Double glazing installed

7 Central heating installed

That's just the ones that spent the money on the house. I am sure that others MEW'd and went on holiday, or bought a car, or started a business.

I can confirm knowing two people that MEWed for a big family holiday they obviously couldn't afford.

20k trip to Oz in one case, the other one I'm not sure how much, it was Thailand.

MEWing to invest in the house(I mean items 1, 2, 5, 6 and 7 above only), not clever but not terrible.

MEWing for a holiday is plain stupid, except that such people may end up getting rewarded for their profligacy by our treacherous government. Maybe I'm the stupid one, I should have borrowed 200k and disappeared to Thailand like the HPC poster who had Mandelslime as his moniker......

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Id love to see stats on how many people actually MEW-ed and to what extent. I don't know anybody who did it. I read some horror stories of extreme cases but these aren't the norm.

And slightly more up-to-date; from the lovely Alice Cook's UK Housing Bubble blog:

MEW.png

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Id love to see stats on how many people actually MEW-ed and to what extent. I don't know anybody who did it. I read some horror stories of extreme cases but these aren't the norm.

I heard that at Bradford and Bingley that remortgage enquires were three times the size of new mortgage enquiries in around 2006/2007

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MEW.png

Unless I've read the figures horribly wrong, that's a change from the peak in '03 to the present of roughly "1 x The UK Defence Budget".

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What is there for the unemployed to do? The few people in work do most of the things that need doing, because they want to maximise their earnings. The problem is that people get locked up if they don't pay their taxes so money is a store of labour. If everyone is free, money has no value and we can only store the wealth of the Earth and not the obligations of each other.

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It just sickens me that idiots use 2007 as a benchmark year for the "recovery".

Ain't gonna happen, not for a long long time.

Love your agitated bull clip. Is it meant to remind us of someone...lol!

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And slightly more up-to-date; from the lovely Alice Cook's UK Housing Bubble blog:

MEW.png

So on average its 6% of take home pay? Spin that however you like but it not 50 or 60%. No story there.

Edited by Gideon Gono

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So on average its 6% of take home pay? Spin that however you like but it not 50 or 60%. No story there.

Bank of England details here:

BoE

See the spreadsheet in the link and play with the numbers. No spin at all needed. Around 6% is on average, and as you say many did not MEW at all, but those who did :wacko: ... this has greatly contributed to the mess today. Simply take 2006 say, total MEWed in the UK... 50 bn, just in 1 year; that is some amount..., add the interests, job losses... equivalent to around 15%-20% of annual gross mortgage lending, id say that is huge. More than enough to bail out many of the banks around several times over at any rate, :rolleyes:

Edited by Old_Traveller

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Edit to add... Old Traveller beat me to it :) Anyway, here it is again in case you missed it.

So on average its 6% of take home pay? Spin that however you like but it not 50 or 60%. No story there.

So you're saying that going from a peak of £17bn in Q4 2003 (and £11bn in mid '07) to a current low of -£5.5bn Q3 2008 (the most recent stat) is of no significance whatsoever?

Looking at two years - 2006 and 2008 - we saw £46bn (ish) taken out of housing and dumped into something else in the former, and (as far as the stats go) in 2008 we saw £2bn taken out of the economy and used to pay off mortgage debt. That's a lot of money, equal to around half the annual budget of the NHS.

...and people wonder why new car sales have collapsed...

BoE MEW stats

Edited by Moo

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