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Sour Mash

Jeremey Vine This Lunchtime (09/06/09)

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Admittedly only caught the first 20 minutes of the show, or so, but when he posed the question "Are we seeing green shoots?" he got an overwhelming number of calls from people in business claiming that it has never been better.

Ok, the usual estate agent claiming there was never a better time to buy than now - but also people in business claiming orders were up 20-25%, record amounts of new business etc.

Basically: Recession? What recession?

Altogether very strange. He's been involved in a few of the Panorama programmes on the economy and he even seemed rather incredulous at what he heard...... What's going on? Inflation led boom or last hoorah caused by the QE money and all the bailouts?

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"Recession? - What recession?"

Is pretty much all I hear from my dad and his fellow business men.

What i try to explain to them is that this is just the end of the beginning and they have been luck y so far. My mam still works for the civil service and is relying on her FS pension. She doesnt like it when i tell her my thoughts about where that is going!

Re: jeremy Vine - i preferred the biit where the Welshies were all admitting to setting fire to the mountains and there was no real argument as to why they shouldnt!

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Mises quote posted t'other day by lowrentyieldmakesense.

Looks familiar?

And, first, in the economic department. From the early

reluctant and careful issues of paper we saw, as an immediate

result, improvement and activity in business. Then

arose the clamor for more paper money. At first, new issues

were made with great difficulty; but, the dyke once broken,

the current of irredeemable currency poured through; and,

the breach thus enlarging, this currency was soon swollen

beyond control. It was urged on by speculators for a rise

in values; by demagogues who persuaded the mob that a

nation, by its simple fiat, could stamp real value to any

amount upon valueless objects. As a natural consequence a

great debtor class grew rapidly, and this class gave its influence

to depreciate more and more the currency in which

its debts were to be paid.

Viemar Republic shortly before hyperinflation and just after a credit contraction.

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Admittedly only caught the first 20 minutes of the show, or so, but when he posed the question "Are we seeing green shoots?" he got an overwhelming number of calls from people in business claiming that it has never been better.

Ok, the usual estate agent claiming there was never a better time to buy than now - but also people in business claiming orders were up 20-25%, record amounts of new business etc.

Basically: Recession? What recession?

Altogether very strange. He's been involved in a few of the Panorama programmes on the economy and he even seemed rather incredulous at what he heard...... What's going on? Inflation led boom or last hoorah caused by the QE money and all the bailouts?

Utter twaddle.

Probably just a bunch of rabid NuLabwhore tubthumping loonies, foaming at the mouth and barfing all over the switchboard.

In related news: Lloyds Banking Group says it will cut 1,660 jobs after deciding to close all 164 branches of Cheltenham & Gloucester; German retailer Arcandor, owner of Thomas Cook, files for bankruptcy; Setanta 'is on brink of collapse' and 'vast majority' of LDV jobs to go.

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Utter twaddle.

Probably just a bunch of rabid NuLabwhore tubthumping loonies, foaming at the mouth and barfing all over the switchboard.

In related news: Lloyds Banking Group says it will cut 1,660 jobs after deciding to close all 164 branches of Cheltenham & Gloucester; German retailer Arcandor, owner of Thomas Cook, files for bankruptcy; Setanta 'is on brink of collapse' and 'vast majority' of LDV jobs to go.

yeah, but no but.

many low end jobs are going first, as is the norm....middle management....25-35K you're next.

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Guest theboltonfury
yeah, but no but.

many low end jobs are going first, as is the norm....middle management....25-35K you're next.

I just think it's nice that Alan Partridge has been given his radio slot back.

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And, first, in the economic department. From the early

reluctant and careful issues of paper we saw, as an immediate

result, improvement and activity in business. Then

arose the clamor for more paper money. At first, new issues

were made with great difficulty; but, the dyke once broken,

the current of irredeemable currency poured through; and,

the breach thus enlarging, this currency was soon swollen

beyond control. It was urged on by speculators for a rise

in values; by demagogues who persuaded the mob that a

nation, by its simple fiat, could stamp real value to any

amount upon valueless objects.

=================================================

As a natural consequence a

great debtor class grew rapidly, and this class gave its influence

to depreciate more and more the currency in which

its debts were to be paid.

=================================================

Unt now it eez looking like Chermanie eez in trobble again.

Unt ze Briddish also.

Unt ze Latvians.....

Unt ze Irish......

Unt........

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People talk this sort of rubbish all the time, but never more so than in times like this.

For example, I ran into a guy i hadn't seen for ages but knew through third parties how things were going with him. I said "Hey, how's it going", he goes "really good, yeah, really really good. Mate, I've got so much stuff coming in, yeah, working silly hours just to clear it, brilliant, yeah", and so on.

He's telling me all this straight to my face but I knew he was doing the LVA thing to protect himself from his creditors. Owed a friend of mine £13k, somebody else I knew £39k, and he was hoping to get away with paying them 25p in the pound so and everything would be hunky dory.

That's the sort of crap people come out with. Too bad the only person who believes it is themselves.

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Orders up but from where?

Read an article that said if Honda produce 10 cars at Swindon because of the shutdown that would be a 1000% increase in production.

Statistics can be very misleading.

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Small businesses that were holding off making decisions at the end of last year have started placing orders.

I deal with around 40 separate clients who are saying across the board that business is picking up.

Why the change in sentimen? who knows?

These are probably not big ticket items but we are beginnning to get purchase orders for e-commmerce development, for sites that we previously quoted around the £15k mark, where the client put the project on the back-burner.

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Small businesses that were holding off making decisions at the end of last year have started placing orders.

I deal with around 40 separate clients who are saying across the board that business is picking up.

Why the change in sentimen? who knows?

These are probably not big ticket items but we are beginnning to get purchase orders for e-commmerce development, for sites that we previously quoted around the £15k mark, where the client put the project on the back-burner.

ARe they paying cash?

Have they borrowed to buy the work?

or has there been a lull because firms are more cautious and are sure they can pay the bill?

Or are some on the way out and "throwing a party"

If its borrowed.....the potential for extra work after is limited...banks are still bust.

If its saved...then the potential for extra work is good, but will probably be "slower" coming along.

If its a party, then forget getting paid in 8 out of 10 orders.

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Guest มร หล&#3
Admittedly only caught the first 20 minutes of the show, or so, but when he posed the question "Are we seeing green shoots?" he got an overwhelming number of calls from people in business claiming that it has never been better.

Ok, the usual estate agent claiming there was never a better time to buy than now - but also people in business claiming orders were up 20-25%, record amounts of new business etc.

Basically: Recession? What recession?

Altogether very strange. He's been involved in a few of the Panorama programmes on the economy and he even seemed rather incredulous at what he heard...... What's going on? Inflation led boom or last hoorah caused by the QE money and all the bailouts?

More work than I can handle right now.

Sudden too. A month ago there was nothing.

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ARe they paying cash?

Have they borrowed to buy the work?

or has there been a lull because firms are more cautious and are sure they can pay the bill?

Or are some on the way out and "throwing a party"

If its borrowed.....the potential for extra work after is limited...banks are still bust.

If its saved...then the potential for extra work is good, but will probably be "slower" coming along.

If its a party, then forget getting paid in 8 out of 10 orders.

I run quite tight terms, payment up front for equipment, 30% up front for commissioned work with stage payments and the final 30% within 14 days of customer acceptance. So far, I've no bad debts.

It seems that for example, one of our clients, a graphics designer, his work hit a lull in December and has now begun to pick up with cash flow ok.

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Guest มร หล&#3
Do you work in debt recovery? ;)

Land regen.

These were projects planned 3 years ago. The budgets in place. Don't read it as economic recovery.

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to me it just looks like the effects of zero int rate policy and queasing causing premature ejaculation of optimism, it surely has to dry up after the next election when the bills come rolling in to govt and taxes etc are hiked, people dont seem to get it that basically brown has put the whole uk on

BUY NOW, PAY NOTHING UNTIL JUNE 2010 !

all we need is a clueless sexy blonde on a leather sofa listening to her ipod, and that about sums up the shop brown's running -

fwiw i am seeing sales all over the place and collectables failing to sell ditto antiques or not selling well at all which i think tells the real story

and i am yet to see 09 plates in any number, have seen 3 since i last posted.

btw i heard vine on r2, the estate agents saying no one's putting their houses up for sale might be true though, its the result of brown's postponing the shtf until after the election making vendors think they will get more if they wait.

if brown got that applause for running us all up a mega debt and a year's delay in the shtf then frankly it shows what contempt the mps hold the public in

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