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Joey Buttafueco Jr

Dclg House Prices: -13.0%

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The Times

Further confirmation ~ if you weren't already convinced.

OK, that is a surprise.

I thought this index was almost as laggy as the LR and would be showing continued falls from earlier in the year. Either I am wrong, and its not laggy, or it is just noise.

EDIT: Ok, I've checked and I was wrong. This index seems to be almost comparable in timeliness to the Haliwide and therefore is further evidence of what we knew already:

Prices are going back up.

(But I'm more interested in what they will do next).

Edited by Timm

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The Times

Further confirmation ~ if you weren't already convinced.

How many times do we have to point out that in the last crash, we had these false dawns, but prices still continued to fall for many years still.

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It has to be a bull trap. What factors in the economy do you see driving prices up for any prolomged period?

Housing bulls do not understand that there is a wider economy!

Remind me when any of them have looked beyond the simple supply and demand mantra to support their argument.

Houses are a bubble in more than one sense for them

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It has to be a bull trap. What factors in the economy do you see driving prices up for any prolomged period?

I don't, perhaps 3-4% per year. But I can see numerous factors preventing any meaningful falls in the forseeable future.

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I can see numerous factors preventing any meaningful falls in the forseeable future.

Oooh! let me guess!!

Err, new paradigm, property prices only go up, supply and demand, immigration, historically low interest rates.

Am I right, am I right!!!

Edited by surfgatinho

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I don't, perhaps 3-4% per year. But I can see numerous factors preventing any meaningful falls in the forseeable future.

Get your face out of the turd :rolleyes:

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Quite frankly, I wouldn't expect anything else from Government figures at this moment in time.

Keep on trolling.

So the latest bear prediction is that Bruce Banner will start believing Govt figures in two to three months.

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So the latest bear prediction is that Bruce Banner will start believing Govt figures in two to three months.

Perhaps. I will start believing government figures when we have a government that I trust. That could be in two or three months, but I doubt it.

Keep on trolling.

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So the latest bear prediction is that Bruce Banner will start believing Govt figures in two to three months.

Looks like you have some inside info there Andy....Two to three months. Is that when Cameron becomes PM? ;)

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Looks like you have some inside info there Andy....Two to three months. Is that when Cameron becomes PM? ;)

No, it's when the bears think prices will start to fall again and I fully expect Bruce banner to have a Damascene conversion to the accuracy and probity of Govt (and Nationwide) figures.

After all, according to the bears, by inference, the Tories lied about the figures last time as they claim a "bull trap" then too.

I wonder if "call me dave", as Lamont's bag carrier at the time, was directly involved in that deception.

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No, it's when the bears think prices will start to fall again and I fully expect Bruce banner to have a Damascene conversion to the accuracy and probity of Govt (and Nationwide) figures.

After all, according to the bears, by inference, the Tories lied about the figures last time as they claim a "bull trap" then too.

I wonder if "call me dave", as Lamont's bag carrier at the time, was directly involved in that deception.

Why so political all the time Andy? Got an agenda?

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After all, according to the bears, by inference, the Tories lied about the figures last time as they claim a "bull trap" then too.

Andy,

You spent all morning trotting out this rubbish.. I thought we went through this last night?

There WAS a bull trap in 1991.. prices rose nominally for 3 months. Before falling again nominally there after.

Why don't you prove me wrong if you disagree?

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I fully expect Bruce banner to have a Damascene conversion to the accuracy and probity of Govt (and Nationwide) figures.

Not with this government I won't. If their figures show falls, it's because they can't fiddle them enough that month to show a rise. You can tell when they are lying, their lips move.

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House Prices Yet to Hit Floor

The 'floor' for house prices has not yet been reached despite evidence that the housing market is stabilising, economists have warned.

Two new sets of data present a positive outlook for property. The first, from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), shows the biggest increase in the number of housing surveyors reporting an increase in prices since September 2003. The survey also reveals a continued rise in buyer enquiries and an increase in the number of house sales.

The Department for Communities and Local Government, meanwhile, says house prices increased by 1.1% during April. This follows both Halifax and Nationwide reporting increases in the average value of property in recent months.

However, although the news looks good on the surface, commentators warn house prices will fall further going forward.

Charles Davis, an economist at the Centre for Economic Business Research, points out that the increases in activity and interest comes from a historically low level. And with mortgage lending remaining weak, and unemployment continuing to rise, there remain serious barriers to a full recovery now or even in the near future.

“The latest data released today showed reasons to be cautious about the pace at which the UK economy is recovering,†Davis adds. “This fits with our view that the UK recovery is likely to be relatively fragile.â€

Seema Shah, property economist at Capital Economics, agrees. “The latest RICS survey provided further evidence that housing market conditions are improving, although a floor for prices, let alone a recovery, is not yet in sight,†she says. “Although buyer interest is rising, as long as mortgage credit conditions remain tight and unemployment is rising, house prices will remain under downward pressure.â€

Mortgage lending has seemingly improved over the past few months. Bank of England figures show approvals are up, and mortgage brokers report that cheap fixed-rate deals, and offers for people with smaller deposits, are helping to spur-on buyer interest.

But, again, lending remains historically very weak. Paul Tucker, the deputy governor for financial stability at the Bank of England, and a member of the Monetary Policy Committee, has warned that the medium-term outlook remains “highly uncertainâ€.

“For the moment it is unclear – as, I must say, it is bound to be at this stage – whether the financial system can generate the expansion of credit that will most likely be necessary to support recovery,†he said in a speech at an insurance conference.

Just echoing really what CML said last week regarding BOE figures:

"It looks almost inevitable that May approvals will be higher than a year ago for the first time since early 2007. However, activity remains at extremely low levels on any historic comparison – and weaker than at any point in the early 1990s. Limited lending capacity and the impact of further job losses are likely to act as a ceiling for how far the improvement can continue, although there could be further modest rises in the coming months."

And indeed what RM have said:

"Some sellers are still pricing wishfully high, though it is encouraging that elements of the market have adapted relatively quickly to find a new price floor at a discount of around 25% from peak. " "Until banks get their own houses in order, the active minority of sellers and agents who have drastically adjusted pricing will remain frustrated by the limited functioning of the financial services sector."

So, after its initial optimism the Rightmove index enforces the realisation that the UK property market recovery hinges on two things: vendor realism and mortgage availability. The latter more than likely hinged on a recovery to the wider UK economy, which in my opinion is also necessary to increase buyer numbers sufficiently to bring vendor realism

As you know, CEBR earlier this year said that even if approvals doubled by the summer property prices would still fall 35% , if approvals didn't double they expected 40% falls. Last month they changed their stance on this, but it is hard to see on what basis they would have done so except maybe it didn't make them a popular choice for papers to quote if they did not make their figures more bullish. A bit like Rics who earlier this year said:

Most of the house price indices suggest prices have fallen by up to 20pc from the peak. However, many of our members [surveyors and estate agents] cast doubt on this and calculate independently that the scale of price falls has been even greater − 30pc or more already. They suspect the Nationwide and Halifax figures are underestimating scale of the peak-to-trough fall to date.

Looking at the surveys you have to come to the conclusion that we aren't at the bottom by any stretch yet. Our members are still expecting further falls in prices, according to our survey, and if there's anyone you might expect to be talking up the market it is them

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