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PotNoodle

Are We About To Hit The "fear" Part Of The Bubble

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It is an illusion that the government has any control over events. It more akin to a rodeo rider on a bull, you may be holding on for dear life, but you aren't in control of the situation. 2010, I'm with Fred Harrison.

It is no illusion. The Government and the media will dictate what happens to house prices.

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Even labour voters would rather have a growing economy than no jobs and cheap houses.

Well it would be better than our current situation. At the moment, we have a tanking economy,

no jobs, and extortionately high house prices.

What has Labour done for Labour voters? I'll tell you. They have flooded the country with

cheap migrants, suppressing their pay whilst at the same time pricing 90% of them out of the

housing market. They should be thankful for their 17% vote last week as it may be the biggest

they're ever going to get from here on in.

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It is no illusion. The Government and the media will dictate what happens to house prices.

Just like the government dictated that Gordon Brown must go and now he's gone?

Oh wait... :rolleyes:

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me too, but the landlord is only getting 3% yield :lol::lol:

And your paying off his mortgage for him! :lol:

One day it's paid off, by you, with no more mortgage payments, then watch his yield increase! :lol:

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And your paying off his mortgage for him! :lol:

One day it's paid off, by you, with no more mortgage payments, then watch his yield increase! :lol:

Yet another deliberately provocative post by an estate agent, you really are a slimy bunch of toads <_<.

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I certainly see what you are getting at. However, it is no more a sure thing than anything else. When I moved into my current house, the house over the road rented for £650 a month. That was in 1999. The rent is still £650. If rents were index linked to CPI then it would now have to be £771.27 nominal to have the same real value.

Perhaps in real terms it has increased. It depends on a number of things.

I haven't put the rent up on one of my properties because the condition of the property is becoming progressively worse. I know that the Kitchen & bathroom are starting to look worn out, the carpets are coming towards the end of their life, yet the tenants are still happy and I keep putting these jobs off. If they ask for a new Kitchen & Bathroom, I will do it, but the rent will go up accordingly. If they won't pay the increased rent, I'll serve them with a section 20 and get someone else in on the higher rent.

A friend of mine also has a rental property. He has been shagging the tenant for 3-years now and while his wife doesn't find out, he has kept the rent exactly the same. Call it payment in kind if you will! :P

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I simply don't think you can deny the figures. I am a bear, but I don't buy into the massive depression hyperinflation arguments, I would like to think I am more of a realist.

In my humble opinion, an average salary of ~25K pa should mean an average house price of ~100K.

When you look at the cack that some people are trying to flog at absolutely ludicrous prices, I wouldn't be surprised is some people lose quite a lot of money, so in those terms there maybe an element of fear as we see prices decline over the next few years.

To be fair though, some people are so retarded that they deserve it.

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Yet another deliberately provocative post by an estate agent, you really are a slimy bunch of toads <_<.

That line you quoted, I noticed andykn, or whatever is name is, using that yesterday, except he said it as if it was a serious argument to go out and buy. It's pure psychology.

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Yet another deliberately provocative post by an estate agent, you really are a slimy bunch of toads <_<.

Er... Letting Agent actually, but close.

As those who know me will tell you, I bought 4-BTL properties as part of my future pension plan. Once they are paid off in full by the tenants, I will retire keeping the houses and living off the income. Because of that, I am not concerned with the future value (Within reason as it could effect future rental income if it was too low) as I have no intention of ever selling them. All I had to do was raise the deposit monies and ensure that the rental income covererd the repayment mortgages and allow a little extra to pay for repairs! Great plan, 4-virtually free houses! :rolleyes:

If something is virtually free, who really cares what the initial purchase price is! In this instance, it is the final mortgage payment date that is important and ensuring that the figures stack up.

I can probably consider myself to be one of the very first BTL investors around buying my first property in 1992. The only bank/BS willing to offer BTL mortgages was the Saffron Walden.

At only 43 years of age now and am wondering what I am going to do in my retirement when the mortgages end in 2012! I'll be only 46. :lol:

Oh and I only ever put £34k (For deposits) of my own money in over the whole 17-years and the properties are now worth in excess of £500k (And falling slightly).

Furthermore, these BTL properties also paid off our family home 10-years ago. The BTL properties had risen sooo much that we rolled the mortgage off our family home onto the BTL's for tax efficiency reasons leaving us mortgage free.

If you plan to use BTL to form part of your pension plan and never think about selling, who cares what house prices might do next year or the year after. You should be thinking 20-years + from now when they are paid off and you can quit the rat race. :P

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I simply don't think you can deny the figures. I am a bear, but I don't buy into the massive depression hyperinflation arguments, I would like to think I am more of a realist.

In my humble opinion, an average salary of ~25K pa should mean an average house price of ~100K.

When you look at the cack that some people are trying to flog at absolutely ludicrous prices, I wouldn't be surprised is some people lose quite a lot of money, so in those terms there maybe an element of fear as we see prices decline over the next few years.

To be fair though, some people are so retarded that they deserve it.

Bingo. 3.5 times salary plus a little more than 10% deposit. We're still a further 30% drop away from sanity imo.

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Here you go, then :-

SILLY.jpg

Following a recent food price inflation driven increase in lentil/pulse consumption in my household, I can confidently predict a significant elongation of the "blow off" phase

SILLY.jpg

post-5791-1244579219_thumb.jpg

Edited by Bubble&Squeak

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Er... Letting Agent actually, but close.

As those who know me will tell you, I bought 4-BTL properties as part of my future pension plan. Once they are paid off in full by the tenants, I will retire keeping the houses and living off the income. Because of that, I am not concerned with the future value (Within reason as it could effect future rental income if it was too low) as I have no intention of ever selling them. All I had to do was raise the deposit monies and ensure that the rental income covererd the repayment mortgages and allow a little extra to pay for repairs! Great plan, 4-virtually free houses! :rolleyes:

If something is virtually free, who really cares what the initial purchase price is! In this instance, it is the final mortgage payment date that is important and ensuring that the figures stack up.

I can probably consider myself to be one of the very first BTL investors around buying my first property in 1992. The only bank/BS willing to offer BTL mortgages was the Saffron Walden.

At only 43 years of age now and am wondering what I am going to do in my retirement when the mortgages end in 2012! I'll be only 46. :lol:

Oh and I only ever put £34k (For deposits) of my own money in over the whole 17-years and the properties are now worth in excess of £500k (And falling slightly).

Furthermore, these BTL properties also paid off our family home 10-years ago. The BTL properties had risen sooo much that we rolled the mortgage off our family home onto the BTL's for tax efficiency reasons leaving us mortgage free.

If you plan to use BTL to form part of your pension plan and never think about selling, who cares what house prices might do next year or the year after. You should be thinking 20-years + from now when they are paid off and you can quit the rat race. :P

Well done. I'm off for a wang :rolleyes:

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Er... Letting Agent actually, but close.

As those who know me will tell you, I bought 4-BTL properties as part of my future pension plan. Once they are paid off in full by the tenants, I will retire keeping the houses and living off the income. Because of that, I am not concerned with the future value (Within reason as it could effect future rental income if it was too low) as I have no intention of ever selling them. All I had to do was raise the deposit monies and ensure that the rental income covererd the repayment mortgages and allow a little extra to pay for repairs! Great plan, 4-virtually free houses! :rolleyes:

If something is virtually free, who really cares what the initial purchase price is! In this instance, it is the final mortgage payment date that is important and ensuring that the figures stack up.

I can probably consider myself to be one of the very first BTL investors around buying my first property in 1992. The only bank/BS willing to offer BTL mortgages was the Saffron Walden.

At only 43 years of age now and am wondering what I am going to do in my retirement when the mortgages end in 2012! I'll be only 46. :lol:

Oh and I only ever put £34k (For deposits) of my own money in over the whole 17-years and the properties are now worth in excess of £500k (And falling slightly).

Furthermore, these BTL properties also paid off our family home 10-years ago. The BTL properties had risen sooo much that we rolled the mortgage off our family home onto the BTL's for tax efficiency reasons leaving us mortgage free.

If you plan to use BTL to form part of your pension plan and never think about selling, who cares what house prices might do next year or the year after. You should be thinking 20-years + from now when they are paid off and you can quit the rat race. :P

Good timing and good work for sticking at it.

But if you had decided to do this in 1988 or 2007 ? You'd be goosed.

Still - enjoy your retirement. Although your thoughts of 'falling slightly' may be in for a shock. Although you don't care about the values so you won't be bothered... ;)

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If something is virtually free, who really cares what the initial purchase price is!

Nothing is free, the invoice is in the post, but you may not like the repayment plan.......................

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Er... Letting Agent actually, but close.

As those who know me will tell you, I bought 4-BTL properties as part of my future pension plan. Once they are paid off in full by the tenants, I will retire keeping the houses and living off the income. Because of that, I am not concerned with the future value (Within reason as it could effect future rental income if it was too low) as I have no intention of ever selling them. All I had to do was raise the deposit monies and ensure that the rental income covererd the repayment mortgages and allow a little extra to pay for repairs! Great plan, 4-virtually free houses! :rolleyes:

If something is virtually free, who really cares what the initial purchase price is! In this instance, it is the final mortgage payment date that is important and ensuring that the figures stack up.

I can probably consider myself to be one of the very first BTL investors around buying my first property in 1992. The only bank/BS willing to offer BTL mortgages was the Saffron Walden.

At only 43 years of age now and am wondering what I am going to do in my retirement when the mortgages end in 2012! I'll be only 46. :lol:

Oh and I only ever put £34k (For deposits) of my own money in over the whole 17-years and the properties are now worth in excess of £500k (And falling slightly).

Furthermore, these BTL properties also paid off our family home 10-years ago. The BTL properties had risen sooo much that we rolled the mortgage off our family home onto the BTL's for tax efficiency reasons leaving us mortgage free.

If you plan to use BTL to form part of your pension plan and never think about selling, who cares what house prices might do next year or the year after. You should be thinking 20-years + from now when they are paid off and you can quit the rat race. :P

Can you smell the smugness?

Two words:

Time

Ming

Well done for spotting an investment opportunity in 1992. Would you do the same if you were starting now? If not, please share your guru like wisdom where you would invest. If so, please talk us through the rationale.

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The frustrating thing is, in a way, this is a bull trap.

It is only a temporary rise, and it will revert to more (but much smaller) falls over next winter.

But what the bears fail to realise is that not all bull traps occur close to the top. Some occur close to the bottom. Not so much a bull trap, but rather a premature recovery.... It would be just as appropriate to call the coming falls over winter a bear trap.

The point being, that the stereotypical "lifecycle of a bubble" chart was designed more for highly liquid equities or commodities bubbles. It has no precedent in UK housing, even in previous bubbles.

Whilst it is illustrative in terms of phase, it is entirely innacurate in terms of timing and scale.

Maybe, maybe not.

But a bubble is generally defined by it's symetry up and down. The are nearly always perfectly rectangular in nature.

Look at the last housing bubble. The only difference this time around, is the bubble was so long in the making, therefore it will be years in deflating.

This bull trap has happened near the top. A long way down yet my Scottish friend.

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Keep on trolling.

Disagreeing with you does not make one a troll, get used to other's opinions, it's a big wide world outside your front door.

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Where you actually there, buying a house, or are you just quoting numbers, with no real understanding of what happened?

You see I do remember it very well: I graduated from my first degree in 1988, just when the last bubble was going crazy, and I remember thinking 'I will never, ever be able to buy a house now. Never mind, I can always emigrate.' Then, in 1991, I finished my PhD and bought my first house. By this stage the bubble had popped and sentiment (and, less importantly, prices) seemed to be returning to 'normal' Sadly, for, me at the time, this was just an illusion, a trap. When I sold in 1994, it was for a small loss.

So I remember this bull trap VERY well, especailly the fact that it was more about sentiment than actual prices going up.

Er, numbers is what this particular thread is all about. A "bull trap" refers to a small rise in numbers on a chart after a sharp drop but before an even sharper/larger drop.

Not a rise in sentiment.

And anyway, as you yourself have said, you didn't buy that far from the bottom of the market - did your loss account for the rent you'd have paid or any lodger's rent you may have received?

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