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Drop In Retail Sales Hits Hopes Of Economic Recovery

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/ju...une2009-economy

Shop sales fell back last month in spite of growing optimism that the recession may be coming to an end, with retailers reporting that market conditions remain "extremely challenging," the British Retail Consortium reports today.

The BRC's latest monthly report shows that retail sales on a like-for-like basis – which excludes the effect of changes in floor space – fell 0.8% in May compared to May 2008, which was a strong month.

"Negative results show spring has been extremely difficult for most non-food retailers. The turnaround in sales of big-ticket items such as furniture and large electricals, which would indicate real change in the mood of customers, still eludes us," said BRC director-general Stephen Robertson.

Helen Dickinson, head of retail at the report's sponsors KPMG, said: "These figures may look disappointing after last month's positive results were flattered by the timing of Easter, but extremely challenging market conditions – particularly for the non-food sectors – continue.

"We might have expected better figures as, while there are consumers struggling financially due to actual, or the prospect of, job losses, there are also those with greater disposable income due to lower mortgage payments, easing inflation and lower fuel costs. It remains to be seen when those who have cash to spare will feel confident to start spending again."

The survey showed that clothing and footwear fell below last May's strong sales while big-ticket homewares and furniture sales remained "difficult".

It doesn't appear to be a consumer led recovery but these are only 1 mth figures.

How about public spending recovery?

Is the recovery just business investment (restocking as inventory was cleared) ?

Demand conditions still seem down. Is we bottom at very low demand is that a recovery?

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I swear they just said retail sales *rose* by 0.8% on R4 about 7:35am-7:40am just now.

hmm... still, I'm convinced we are looking at a 20-30% drop in GDP by the time this is all over, since the consumption binge from MEWing will die and the consumer makes up 70% of our GDP.

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It doesn't appear to be a consumer led recovery but these are only 1 mth figures.

I'm pretty sure we'll be repeating more or less that for the two or three years at least, changing the "does" for a "doesn't" and the number of months.

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WTF? The biggest fiscal stimulus in history just happened, so how can retail sales possibly go down :o ?

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Guest KingCharles1st
WTF? The biggest fiscal stimulus in history just happened, so how can retail sales possibly go down :o ?

...BECAUSE....

Thats all you need to know

You doubt the word of Der Fuhrer

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Got to get the consumer out there consuming ..... borrow and spend .... borrow and spend ......borrow and spend .....

The Motor Trade has gone quiet.I did half the business in May that I did in April,and April was a third down in March. Overall I am up on last year though. This seems to be a pattern with spending pushed into the first third of the year then tailing away.On new cars the scrappage scheme is hitting "proper" priced deals.The only things moving ar the £7k entry level models.

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Quantitative Shitting and rigging interest rates is about to pay negative dividends.

The functional part of the economy, the bit not driven on debt has just received the biggest fall off in income EVER.

Hands are going to stay in pockets.

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Quantitative Shitting and rigging interest rates is about to pay negative dividends.

The functional part of the economy, the bit not driven on debt has just received the biggest fall off in income EVER.

Hands are going to stay in pockets.

Yep, Japan it is, they won't be able to give houses away in 18 months.

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House prices crashing equates to less Mew-Mobiles, less chavvy bling, and fewer excursions to the shops on Mr Plastic.

Does anybody really pity the retail community? They had it damn good for a solid decade in Britain.

It just shows you how much of our economy is based upon consumption.

Personally speaking, I haven't bought much out of the shops in ages due to internet commerce.

It is a damn shame to see empty town centres full of 'to let' signs, but, it may spur on a new renaissance of small, community based independent businesses...that is if we can restrain ourselves from sucking Satan's **** to save a few pence by shopping at the big box stores.

Down with Asda/Tesco/Morrisons et al.

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Im just AMAZED that with £80 billion of MEW gone, mass unemployment and negative sentiment, retail sales havent been decimated over the past year, down 30% or so. I have hardly bought anything other than food and fuel over the past 12 months. 0.8% up/down is crazy.

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Im just AMAZED that with £80 billion of MEW gone, mass unemployment and negative sentiment, retail sales havent been decimated over the past year, down 30% or so. I have hardly bought anything other than food and fuel over the past 12 months. 0.8% up/down is crazy.

Inflation.

Massive inflation in the basics.

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Im just AMAZED that with £80 billion of MEW gone, mass unemployment and negative sentiment, retail sales havent been decimated over the past year, down 30% or so.

I agree. I too am amazed by the retail figures, bearing in mind what is really going on, in the economy at the moment.

Shops and restaurants round here still seem to be busy.

Maybe the lower interest rates, that are giving many lower mortgages payments, are the ones on the spend in the shops, instead of paying extra off their mortgages? :unsure:

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Less money being spent in the shops, more money being spent on bricks and mortar.

You bears don't get it do you :rolleyes:

180 !! :P

More like 26 !!

I was going to say that less money being spent in shops might be due to more money being spent on houses. I`ll also add that it might also be due to higher unemployment and less money being earned. Still, won`t it be great when nobody can afford a holiday and most of the shops are closed down ? We`ll all be sitting in our expensive houses, contemplating how rich we all are.

:rolleyes:

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You have to look at this bearing in mind the amount of monetary and fiscal stimulus propping things up. However, I have still noticed the city centre quieter and I would think that we would see retail sales down about 15% from the boom years eventually. I am certainly spending a lot less recently as I want to build up my savings even further.

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I agree. I too am amazed by the retail figures, bearing in mind what is really going on, in the economy at the moment.

Shops and restaurants round here still seem to be busy.

Maybe the lower interest rates, that are giving many lower mortgages payments, are the ones on the spend in the shops, instead of paying extra off their mortgages? :unsure:

Shops and restaurants might be busy but are people cutting back on quality?

No starter, avoid the steak and eat the pork belly. Not that discounted leather sofa that even more discounted cloth one.

Could explain the drop

regards

J

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Shops and restaurants might be busy but are people cutting back on quality?

Good point...

The busiest clothes shop in Cardiff when I was there a couple of weeks ago was the cheapest one, Primark. It was full to bursting, with huge queues at the checkouts.

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well i've just popped out and bought an iPod - i hope that helps a bit

(i'll never afford a house at this rate)

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Yep, Japan it is, they won't be able to give houses away in 18 months.

I'm not sure about that, why wouldn't you borrow money in this environment, let's say you need to borrow the best part of £200k just to buy a simple family home. Do you ever really have any expectation that you will pay down the debt? I doubt it, more likely you think that things can't go wrong if you do the same as everyone else. And they might be right.

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House prices crashing equates to less Mew-Mobiles, less chavvy bling, and fewer excursions to the shops on Mr Plastic.

Does anybody really pity the retail community? They had it damn good for a solid decade in Britain.

It just shows you how much of our economy is based upon consumption.

Personally speaking, I haven't bought much out of the shops in ages due to internet commerce.

It is a damn shame to see empty town centres full of 'to let' signs, but, it may spur on a new renaissance of small, community based independent businesses...that is if we can restrain ourselves from sucking Satan's **** to save a few pence by shopping at the big box stores.

Down with Asda/Tesco/Morrisons et al.

It's not really true that retail has had a massive profits boom over the last decade as its been such a competitive environment. Retail property LLs had a boom, assuming they've now sold out or got very solvent tenants and very little leverage.

I agree that the internet is a big factor. I wouldn't go near the high st or shopping centres if I didn't have businesses there. It won't die completely though - it is something of a national pastime.

The answer is no, small independents aren't coming back without there being some massive tectonic shift. Unless it's some hoity-toity women's clothes shop or gift shop there would be nowhere for a startup independent to buy stock at competitive prices. If you can't buy container loads from China just forget about it.

The answer is no again, people will go to the lowest cost operator unless the higher cost operator confers some form of social status upon them.

Im just AMAZED that with £80 billion of MEW gone, mass unemployment and negative sentiment, retail sales havent been decimated over the past year, down 30% or so. I have hardly bought anything other than food and fuel over the past 12 months. 0.8% up/down is crazy.

I've said on another thread things are very fragile and genuine, money spending, customers few and far between.

The Bank Holiday weekend just gone plumbed new depths of like-for-like sales. The big out-of-town monolithic shopping centres, such as Bluewater, were the worst affected.

The retail scene currently has a very fragile veneer of normality but it's possible it could coast to the Autumn without anymore seismic eruptions.

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Well one area of retail is booming.

Houses in Maidstone are selling like hot cakes.

Check your silly property website data and get back to me :lol:

How many have you picked up?

Three, four, maybe five ?

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