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Capt. Picard

If (or When) Brown Goes...

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What will it take for interest rates to go back up where they belong (and trigger a long awaited & proper house prices adjustment)?

Will a Labour leadership change (if Crash Gordon ever decides to resign) be enough?

Or even in that eventuality would we have to wait for elections followed by probable victory of Tories to see something of that sort (and are we sure that the tories will actually stop interfering massively with house prices as GB is doing??)

Which one do you think do we have to wait for to see honest prices on shelters made up of a few bricks put together?

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What will it take for interest rates to go back up where they belong (and trigger a long awaited & proper house prices adjustment)?

Not sure if Brown going would do it.. but as soon as the general election is over I recon you might be on to a winner.

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What will it take for interest rates to go back up where they belong (and trigger a long awaited & proper house prices adjustment)?

The BoE becoming too giddy with QE causing a bond market collapse.

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Anyone who thinks the Tories would have stopped the insane increases in house prices are just as delusional as Brown.

House prices make people feel rich, who doesn't want to feel rich?

I tend to agree, but on that Crash Gordon programme earlier, they said El Gordo increased public sector spending as a percent of GDP from 40% to 48% (almost entirely from borrowing) which apparently is a 'huge' amount. All this while the economy was growing (or debt at least). If that isnt adding fuel to the fire i dont know what is.

Add to that screwing over non-property related pensions

And allowing property in SIPPs giving tax breaks FTBs dont get.

I think it may have at least been less bad under the tories.

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What will it take for interest rates to go back up where they belong (and trigger a long awaited & proper house prices adjustment)?

...

Inflation or the fear of it.

(About October then...)

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Guest KingCharles1st

I think if Brown does go, the remaining party members will have to firstly think how well their new chancellor isdoing.

After that little upset, the floor is open...

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What will it take for interest rates to go back up where they belong (and trigger a long awaited & proper house prices adjustment)?

Will a Labour leadership change (if Crash Gordon ever decides to resign) be enough?

Or even in that eventuality would we have to wait for elections followed by probable victory of Tories to see something of that sort (and are we sure that the tories will actually stop interfering massively with house prices as GB is doing??)

Which one do you think do we have to wait for to see honest prices on shelters made up of a few bricks put together?

You make a good point, will anything actually change? I'm sure most of us in the back of our minds think it will!

I recently sent an email to my prospective Torie MP asking what they're going to do to address house prices with regards to FTBs. I just got nonsense back avoiding the question. :o<_<

I originally sent the email in response to a flyer they sent round claiming the average FTB will save £2000 on their first house purchase due to stamp duty relief. Woo Hoo i thought <_< Does this no assume the average FTB will be buying a house for £200,000 :unsure:

Stamp duty for FTBs should be irrelevant if we let house prices fall back to nominal levels and we rebuild our economy on stable ground instead of a bed of debt!

No wonder no one bothers to vote.

Tories will win, without a doubt - I just can't wait to see the back of Labour and GB.

Edited by Hawk

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I seem to gather the notion that if Labour has damaged (ora at least delayed) the hopes of those (us) who are hoping for house prices to come down considerably, then not much is to be expected of Cameron and his cronies either.

The common opinion seems to be that the decisive factor will be the coming of (hyper?) inflation (whichever leader we will have at that stage)... This should automatically trigger/force the BoE, in turn, to raise interest rates and then house prices should start to go down again this autumn/winter or later...

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How close are we to that scenario?

obviously the question we all ponder on.

q2 2010 is when inflation might really kick off.

brown is indeed a prophet as kinnock the twit said, he's a false prophet, one who devises an illusion of prosperity by creating illusions of wealth by lax credit terms, thats his big plan, his genius - in two words: sheer stipidity.

they applaud that these days, expenses-fiddling, bubble inflating, lying & spinning - these are the new standards of excellence - in a doomed society

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Brown going without a GE? No difference.

After a GE, with a Tory government, there's one very significant difference - you'll be looking at a government that's thinking "if we get this right, we could be here for twenty years", as opposed to the current situation where the incumbents are aiming for maximum popularity within a maximum of 11 months. The Tories will not need to be short termist, and can look to genuinely sort out the current problems and try and create the conditions necessary for a sustainable recovery at a later date. Baring an outright disaster in their first term (such as deflating the bubble too quickly), they've got a pretty free hand, as Labour really are in a stunning mess.

In short, if nothing else, the difference between the current Labour government and the next government is one looks like shite now and needs to look great in just under a year, and the other looks a lot better than shite now and needs to look great in 8-10 years time.

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Brown going without a GE? No difference.

After a GE, with a Tory government, there's one very significant difference - you'll be looking at a government that's thinking "if we get this right, we could be here for twenty years", as opposed to the current situation where the incumbents are aiming for maximum popularity within a maximum of 11 months. The Tories will not need to be short termist, and can look to genuinely sort out the current problems and try and create the conditions necessary for a sustainable recovery at a later date. Baring an outright disaster in their first term (such as deflating the bubble too quickly), they've got a pretty free hand, as Labour really are in a stunning mess.

In short, if nothing else, the difference between the current Labour government and the next government is one looks like shite now and needs to look great in just under a year, and the other looks a lot better than shite now and needs to look great in 8-10 years time.

agree 99 % but they do need to get something's right inside of 5 yrs obviously

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I seem to gather the notion that if Labour has damaged (ora at least delayed) the hopes of those (us) who are hoping for house prices to come down considerably, then not much is to be expected of Cameron and his cronies either.

The common opinion seems to be that the decisive factor will be the coming of (hyper?) inflation (whichever leader we will have at that stage)... This should automatically trigger/force the BoE, in turn, to raise interest rates and then house prices should start to go down again this autumn/winter or later...

Well, prices have come down considerably since peak. Apart from the last month or so they've been decreasing at a rate far greater than the last crash and way above expectations, even among most posters on here. Prices may still be far too high but nothing Brown has done has stopped the falls.

I also see little to support your implication that price falls will have a direct relationship to interest rate. They have some relationship to the IRs changed by the LENDERS, but haven't you noticed those rates and the BOE rate disconnected over a year ago? If lenders are charging, say, average 5% now, do you really think if the BOE put them up by 3% that the lenders will correspondingly increase to 8% ? Course they won't.

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agree 99 % but they do need to get something's right inside of 5 yrs obviously

Yes, it's certainly true that they can't make a total and utter ****** of it in the first term, but the chances are they'll have enough of a majority to be able to take some initially unpopular decisions that'll bear fruit later.

However, it's worth going over the voting stats for recent general elections (Wikipedia has very good coverage), especially the absolute vote counts as opposed to the percentages, as that shows what the Tories have got to do to get in and stay in. Also worth a look is the 1983 election, as it gives a very stark portrait of what can happen when a government engaged in some pretty bloody painful activity comes up against an opposition that was partly the reason for said activity in the first place, and also in a god-awful mess (as Labour, most probably, will be at that stage).

For what it's worth, if the Tories can turn round at the end of 4-5 years and point to a banking system that's getting off life support, some kind of growth, and falling unemployment, all in the last year or so of their first term, they've probably done enough to romp home. It's doable, even after a few years of real pain at the start.

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Well, prices have come down considerably since peak... greater than the last crash and way above expectations, even among most posters on here...

I agree that in some areas prices have come down 20-25% off peak (although in other areas they seem to have stalled around 10-15% off peak or so), but in ONLY 10 years (last decade or so) they have shot up to 100%-150% or so (correct me if I am wrong here); so how come a feeble 20% off peak is enough???

And also aren't lots of people here expecting a 40-50% crash from peak??? Do you think they're purely delusional?

Prices may still be far too high but nothing Brown has done has stopped the falls.....

I also see little to support your implication that price falls will have a direct relationship to interest rate. They have some relationship to the IRs changed by the LENDERS, but haven't you noticed those rates and the BOE rate disconnected over a year ago? If lenders are charging, say, average 5% now, do you really think if the BOE put them up by 3% that the lenders will correspondingly increase to 8% ? Course they won't.

Of course you're right when you say that lenders charge what they please anyway, but don't you think that all those who are on trackers and interest only mortgages have benefited big time from low rates and haven't had to sell their houses as their instalments are the lowest they ever had to pay?

And if lots of people are not forced to sell the houses they live in then prices won't go down much further or as quickly as they could.

In Brighton there are many people re: example above who are surviving (and actually saving!) thanks to Brown-Darling-King.

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Brown going without a GE? No difference.

After a GE, with a Tory government, there's one very significant difference - you'll be looking at a government that's thinking "if we get this right, we could be here for twenty years", as opposed to the current situation where the incumbents are aiming for maximum popularity within a maximum of 11 months. The Tories will not need to be short termist, and can look to genuinely sort out the current problems and try and create the conditions necessary for a sustainable recovery at a later date. Baring an outright disaster in their first term (such as deflating the bubble too quickly), they've got a pretty free hand, as Labour really are in a stunning mess.

In short, if nothing else, the difference between the current Labour government and the next government is one looks like shite now and needs to look great in just under a year, and the other looks a lot better than shite now and needs to look great in 8-10 years time.

Do you believe this?

The public are stupid and have short memories. Politicians know this.

Unless the Tories can persuade the people that millions of unemployed, poverty and misery for a few years is an acceptable price to pay for restructuring the economy, they'll either have to be as wet as Labour(likely IMO) or do something drastic a la Thatcher and have a small war to get back in after 5 years. The horrible reality is, 5 years isn't enough to turn an economy round that's as f**ked as the UK. Thatcher couldn't do it, do you really think "Call Me Dave" can?

The problem is that the necessary cuts will make the economy appear much worse at first. Politicos know this. If they slash and burn straight after the election, the benefits won't be felt quickly enough for them to get back in.

If the Tories do what should be done, there'll probably be 5m unemployed at the end of their 5 year term, and they'd get the boot. Davey-boy saying "trust me it'll all come right, you'll have a job by 2018, it was all Browns fault" at the 2015 election won't help him and he knows it.

Brown is spending the money now so that Camerons government must cut or pay it back - Labour stand a good chance in 2015 if Cameron does the right thing IMO, who do you think the millions of jobless will vote for?

Democracy is a b*gger - there's no IQ test or memory test or knowledge of history test required to vote. And if there were, it wouldn't be democracy. :angry:

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