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Report Predicts 10 Years Of Pain (scotland)

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/8086899.stm

It will take eight years for employment levels in Scotland to return to last year's level, a respected independent analysis of the recession predicts.

The Scottish Item Club has forecast that the economy will contract by 3.1% this year, it will stagnate next year, and get back into weak growth in 2011.

However the analysis concluded there is reason to be "cautiously optimistic that a corner has been turned".

The Item Club uses the government's economic modelling for its analysis.

In what is described as "a lost decade for jobs", the economic report reckoned unemployment would rise from 157,000 to 230,000 at its peak in 2011.

That represents a rise from the current level of 5.9% to 8.5%. Only in 2017 did the Item Club economists see a return to 2008 levels of unemployment.

The problems include a squeeze on public spending, which the report said could hit Scotland particularly hard, given its heavier dependence on public sector jobs than England.

"Scotland has benefited greatly from a decade of public spending growth," said the report. "The likelihood is that there is now almost a decade of pain and discord to come.

"The menu is unappetising - falling real spending on services, higher taxes and charges and even cuts in public sector employment terms and conditions.

"The governments taking power in Westminster and Holyrood next year will have to make the choices.

"They will not be able to look forward to popularity whatever they do, but the need to reassure the gilt and currency markets will be paramount."

Worst affected

The sectors worst affected, under this reckoning, would include retail and hotels, shedding around 30,000 jobs between last year and 2011.

They would only return to last year's levels in 2018. The hospitality sector on its own is seen as contracting by 5% this year, despite the fall in the value of sterling making Scottish holidays cheaper than abroad.

Manufacturing is seen as contracting by 10% this year. It is forecast to lose 30,000 jobs between last year and 2011.

Roughly the same number of manufacturing jobs are expected to go between 2011 and 2019 - making a fall from 220,000 before the recession began to only 160,000.

The areas already found to be worst affected by rising unemployment were central belt towns outside the cities, such as those in Lanarkshire, and Livingston and Bathgate in West Lothian.

There is uncertainty around the prospects for the finance sector, which may survive the worst job losses in banking because Scots do the necessary "plumbing" of the financial system.

More significant will be the job-creating performance of the "business services" sector, including property-related white collar posts.

This is expected to shed 44,000 jobs in the recession, and its buoyancy coming out of the downturn is a vital part of any recovery, with the Item Club expecting it to create 50,000 new jobs. That could be held back if the property market is slow to recover.

It is assumed that property prices have already fallen 14% from their peak in summer 2007, and forecast that they will fall by another 17% this year and a further 5% next year.

The reduction in the nation's wealth because of the property slump is equivalent to 90% of one year's output.

The Item (Independent Treasury Economic Model) Club, funded by private companies, and sponsored by Ernst and Young, uses the UK Government's economic modelling to carry out its own analysis.

The same methodology reckoned the UK economy will contract by 3.1% this year, and by 0.1% next year - slightly worse than Scotland, but then growing slightly faster.

The findings show the Scottish economy has been taking a similar path to the UK economy over the last nine months and has not been sheltered from the worst effects of the credit crunch.

Both UK and Scottish economies have been hard hit by the sharp fall in world trade and the difficulties in accessing credit, said the report.

And while it says Scotland and the UK are on course to do better through the recession than other developed countries dependent on manufacturing exports, it also warns about its own forecasts, saying the uncertainties are "very substantial".

Dougie Adams, economic advisor to the Ernst and Young Scottish Item Club, commented: "Whilst there have been some early signs that the Scottish economy is beginning to stabilise, like the rest of the UK, the patient is still a long way from recovery and there is more pain to come in the form of significant job losses.

"Scotland faces a further weakening of the labour market and a sharp rise in unemployment over the next two years, whilst the impact on jobs of the inevitable cost cutting at the banks adds to the general uncertainty. It is going to be a lengthy rehabilitation process, even when Gross Domestic Product moves into positive figures".

Scotland is immune.

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...It is assumed that property prices have already fallen 14% from their peak in summer 2007, and forecast that they will fall by another 17% this year and a further 5% next year...

oh, hamish :( .

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Don't forget it would be a thousand years of pain if RBS and HBOS hadn't been bailed out by the English.

Let's not forget that most of the population of England and Scotland seemed quite happy to take many of RBS and HBOS's quality financial products? in order to by 4x4's and 3-bed semi's. :rolleyes:

The taxpayer get what they deserve I guess.

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Anyone that has watched the Scottish football team for the last ten years will know Scotlands already seen a decade of pain :lol:

He He. You took the words out of my mouth.

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Sarcasm. The lowest form of wit.

This statement - It's boring, hackneyed and repetitive now.

Have you ever met anyone who has claimed this?

I haven't. Perhaps I mix with more inteligent people?

You haven't read the Scotsman or the Edinburgh Evening News much have you... :rolleyes:

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You haven't read the Scotsman or the Edinburgh Evening News much have you... :rolleyes:

The Eveninig News is a tabloid (or a comic if you like).

I have never heard anyone in The Scotsman claim we are immune. I have certainly heard those who would claim we are less exposed to falls in house prices.

If you can produce any quotes to the contrary, I will stand corrected.

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The Eveninig News is a tabloid (or a comic if you like).

I have never heard anyone in The Scotsman claim we are immune. I have certainly heard those who would claim we are less exposed to falls in house prices.

If you can produce any quotes to the contrary, I will stand corrected.

I am delighted to do so. :lol:

CITY TO BUCK UK TREND

But Edinburgh has always been a very distinct market and any talk of a crash here is way off the mark

Historically prices have never gone down in Edinburgh and Lothians. We have our very own and very distinct marketplace. The prices may plateau and take a breather – but this is no bad thing

Prospect of house price crash in Scotland - ridiculous

THE prospect of a house price crash in Scotland has been dismissed as "completely ridiculous" by a leading estate agent. Speculation that Britain's house prices are heading for a slump has been rife for months following years of unprecedented growth.

But Bill Cullens, chairman of Clyde, last night claimed the conditions for a crash do not exist in Scotland thanks to the country's buoyant economy.

Scots house prices to defy UK

SCOTTISH house prices are to buck the UK trend in 2008, according to the latest economic forecast by HBOS.

Scots house prices rise again

Steve Spence, senior partner at ELPG member-firm Neilsons, said they underline the message that Scotland has a distinct property market that is largely immune from the peaks and troughs that affect English homeowners.

"While the market may take a breather when other factors come into play, we in Scotland are much better placed to emerge unscathed and even see prices continue to grow," he said.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

There are at least 10 different Scotsman stories that include the following phrase - "Bucking the trend"

Have a look yourself.

Scotsman property News

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10 years from now efficiency, computer servers and software, warehouse automation systems, retail automation.. is all going to be that much more advanced. Meaning less jobs for people.

India and China are going to be that much further up the value chain. For India in software, accounting/back office work, call centers.. and maybe legal services which is just starting now. And for China all the manufacturing.

So where are all the new jobs going to come from? Aka is there any reason to think Scottish employment will return to 2007 levels ever? The one hope I have is anti-aging rejuvination therapies with stem cells and similiar technologies, available in offices sort of like cosmetic surgery is now.

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...

quotes from EAs don't count. he meant someone credible claiming that scotland is immune.

i don't doubt that EAs in the Horishima region in the Autumn of 1945 were swearing blind that plopeldee prices were a cert to hold up superbly.

Edited by the flying pig

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quotes from EAs don't count. he meant someone credible claiming that scotland is immune.

i don't doubt that EAs in the Horishima region in the Autumn of 1945 were swearing blind that plopeldee prices were a cert to hold up superbly.

:blink: What ?

Where did this 'credible' come from ? Surely anyone saying Scotland is immune is not 'credible' by definition... ;)

These EA's got front page 'expert' status for the last 3 years at least. The Scottish public have lapped it up as fact. We all know they are not 'credible'. That is not the point. The Scotsman has described these people as 'experts' - so the Scottish public has classed these people as 'experts'.

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The taxpayer get what they deserve I guess.

Well I'm a taxpayer, and I'm completly p****d off that I have to bail out the banks because they lent money to any idiot who could fill in a form. And to add insult to injury, I get feck all interest on my savings because the same idiots now can't afford to pay the huge mortgages they should never have been given.

Rant over.

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Well I'm a taxpayer, and I'm completly p****d off that I have to bail out the banks because they lent money to any idiot who could fill in a form. And to add insult to injury, I get feck all interest on my savings because the same idiots now can't afford to pay the huge mortgages they should never have been given.

Rant over.

Good rant. 10/10.

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Guest An Bearin Bui
I am delighted to do so. :lol:

Tsk, tsk - you and your sources, ccc! You don't need any of that. It's not like the trolls on this site ever bother with such niceties.

As for a 'credible' source, well, these guys quoted in ccc's reply above are property experts - how much more credible a source can you get? Unfortunately, there seems to be no evidence of any economist claiming that Scotland would be immune but that could be because they were too busy compiling reports like the Item Club one above that actually deal in reality, rather than Edinburgh homeowners' delusions.

Typical bull/troll though: make a spurious, distracting argument against a comment on a report that deals in facts and then run away, leaving the thread and its points unanswered. Don't argue the facts of the report, don't post up your own evidence or arguments, just target other posters and make accusations without substance. This is why this forum is becoming so boring now with all the trolls trying to kill the site off. :rolleyes:

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Well I'm a taxpayer, and I'm completly p****d off that I have to bail out the banks because they lent money to any idiot who could fill in a form. And to add insult to injury, I get feck all interest on my savings because the same idiots now can't afford to pay the huge mortgages they should never have been given.

Rant over.

Ditto.

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I am delighted to do so. :lol:

CITY TO BUCK UK TREND

But Edinburgh has always been a very distinct market and any talk of a crash here is way off the mark

Historically prices have never gone down in Edinburgh and Lothians. We have our very own and very distinct marketplace. The prices may plateau and take a breather – but this is no bad thing

Prospect of house price crash in Scotland - ridiculous

THE prospect of a house price crash in Scotland has been dismissed as "completely ridiculous" by a leading estate agent. Speculation that Britain's house prices are heading for a slump has been rife for months following years of unprecedented growth.

But Bill Cullens, chairman of Clyde, last night claimed the conditions for a crash do not exist in Scotland thanks to the country's buoyant economy.

Scots house prices to defy UK

SCOTTISH house prices are to buck the UK trend in 2008, according to the latest economic forecast by HBOS.

Scots house prices rise again

Steve Spence, senior partner at ELPG member-firm Neilsons, said they underline the message that Scotland has a distinct property market that is largely immune from the peaks and troughs that affect English homeowners.

"While the market may take a breather when other factors come into play, we in Scotland are much better placed to emerge unscathed and even see prices continue to grow," he said.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

There are at least 10 different Scotsman stories that include the following phrase - "Bucking the trend"

Have a look yourself.

Scotsman property News

Fair enough, I stand corrected.

Someone out there thought Edinburgh would be immune.

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quotes from EAs don't count. he meant someone credible claiming that scotland is immune.

i don't doubt that EAs in the Horishima region in the Autumn of 1945 were swearing blind that plopeldee prices were a cert to hold up superbly.

And they were right, due to a sudden under supply of housing.

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Fair enough, I stand corrected.

Someone out there thought Edinburgh would be immune.

I can assure you it was more than one person !! But yes maybe only one put pen to paper in an official way.

'Buck trend', 'buck trend' - we had to put up with that for years.

Edinburgh had a strange obsession with it's property prices not falling. Even more so than the rest of the UK. Not sure quite why. It can be a rather snobby place I suppose. Maybe that has something to do with it ?

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