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Both diarists commented that the markets are ignoring 'Black Swan' events such as the North Korean nuclear tests. Both seem to be suggesting that the traders do not believe this rally is based on anything real. It is all hype. It is interesting to hear 'insider' comments like this. It appears that the unrealistic nature of the market rally is becoming ever more main stream. This rally could be close to the end...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8081484.stm

Sorry if this has been posted before.

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Both diarists commented that the markets are ignoring 'Black Swan' events such as the North Korean nuclear tests. Both seem to be suggesting that the traders do not believe this rally is based on anything real. It is all hype. It is interesting to hear 'insider' comments like this. It appears that the unrealistic nature of the market rally is becoming ever more main stream. This rally could be close to the end...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8081484.stm

Sorry if this has been posted before.

Everything is getting back to normal. We have Gordon Brown getting on with the job and ensuring the economy stays stable - he's done a fantastic job so far. Now we see him at the D-Day rememberance in Normandy. Well done that man I say.

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Both diarists commented that the markets are ignoring 'Black Swan' events such as the North Korean nuclear tests. Both seem to be suggesting that the traders do not believe this rally is based on anything real. It is all hype. It is interesting to hear 'insider' comments like this. It appears that the unrealistic nature of the market rally is becoming ever more main stream. This rally could be close to the end...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8081484.stm

Sorry if this has been posted before.

Thanks for posting. I hadn't read that before. Always useful to get opinion straight from the horses mouth rather than that of a bull.

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Interesting p.o.vs - thanks for posting.

I, too, wondered whether the North Korea nuclear tests could turn out to be a Black Swan - and I don't think the possibility has gone away - and was surprised that there was so little reaction from the markets to the news. The stock market rally defies logic - at least, the only logic that can be applied is a fear of missing out on a rally so everyone piles in for that reason alone. It makes for a very fragile rally, though. The first bit of bad news that actually sinks into the general consciouness could cause a total rout.

Edited for typo.

Edited by Methinkshe

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Both diarists commented that the markets are ignoring 'Black Swan' events such as the North Korean nuclear tests. Both seem to be suggesting that the traders do not believe this rally is based on anything real. It is all hype. It is interesting to hear 'insider' comments like this. It appears that the unrealistic nature of the market rally is becoming ever more main stream. This rally could be close to the end...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8081484.stm

Sorry if this has been posted before.

iit's on the supply side - cleared invent' now restocking resuming production at much lower levels. I've not seen much change on demand conditions

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With regards to the North Korean tests, these aren't Black Swan events.

Black Swan events are those events that happen completely out of the blue - something no-one saw coming perhaps except for a very tiny minority. North Korea's ambitions have been known about for a long time.

From the point of view of most of the public 911 was a Black Swan event, but for those with an awareness of extremist Islamic Jihadists - in particular the CIA - it was not. Shocking and awful but not entirely unexpected.

Once the possibility of an event happening has been considered apriori, its manifestation cannot be considered as a 'Black Swan'.

Edited by Dave Spart

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Everything is getting back to normal. We have Gordon Brown getting on with the job and ensuring the economy stays stable - he's done a fantastic job so far. Now we see him at the D-Day rememberance in Normandy. Well done that man I say.

Quite!

Have you seen the 'Obama Beach' youtube video?

What an embarrassment.

He's the Conservative's secret weapon - Labour could not have a worse leader. Please stay in power Gordon!!

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