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How We Will Beat The Bulls


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HOLA441
I'm glad you agree Sibley deprived a village.................................

As to when the turnaround comes, we can all only guess, my guess is there will be more bad news that will delay any upward prices of any real meaning until at least 2011 and maybe 1012. It may take much longer!

So, I trust we agree we now have the pain of what HPI lead us to, almost all the financial problems we face today. Is HPI a good or bad thing? It's BAD. Will the faults be repeated, Yes, for sure. Can HPI be stemmed, YES, Will they, NO.

So our future is set, too many small homes for too far much money!

At the risk of sounding like a Tim Miller fan club member - SPOT ON.

Long before H. McTavish, Sibley etc popped up on this forum, I was saying how HPI was damaging our economy, and that was basically a bad thing. Many people that I spoke to disagreed with me (mainly because they couldn`t, or wouldn`t see the bigger picture). I still haven`t changed my attitude to HPI, and never will, until prices become reasonable and HPI doesn`t get out of control. UK house prices are still too high, and this should be a top priority for the government. They`re too busy "fixing" the economy by trying to get HPI to resume, or at least what they are doing is encouraging HPI. Voters have been brainwashed into thinking that HPI = Good. The government think that HPI = More votes, which sadly seems to be true.

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HOLA442

Debt, this is the cause of rising unemployment, and when you are unemployed, any debt you have that isnt rescued gets really bad.

Debt is not good, it can be useful, especially usefull to governments who can be very lazy and use debt to finance their economies, not just for investment, but to PAY permanently for things.

Bulls see that ever rising prices is the reason for a booming economy....this is a false view as any economy that relies on ever increasing debt and asset prices is really just seeing inflation....the end result will always be a melt down...as we have seen.

I would rather there was NO debt, but that aint gonna happen either.

Funny, but Sibley used to be just an ordinary guy with an ordinary life, now hes a BTL scumlord....who knows what he will be next week. For certain, he wil be a TROLL throughout.

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HOLA443
I like what you say.

Spare us a tenner ? :lol:

Tim, you seem a decent fellow. Fair play, you made your money (hopefully honestly, and not out of speculation on property), but you have a sense of fairness. This is totally the opposite of those who benefited from HPI, and want it to continue.

What`s the weather like ?

Yes I made it honestly and in property, but not on HPI. You know find a good tenant for a empty commercial property etc. I am very fair, I see both sides to differences etc. In property I could see where HPI would end up, it really benefits so few people and everyone else pays for it. As I have said, I do not have kids, but I worry for the next generation, on my UK visits the young have little to look forward to, you see it in their faces. The daft thing is, we / you in the UK are so well off compared to others, but it's gone pear shaped now in the UK.

I had big health issues, mainly heart attacks and strokes, so I sold up and moved to better weather, I always wanted a yacht, so I bought one. What a life, swum with whales mid Atlantic, been warm / hot, not cold that would have killed me. But with more heart attacks I need the NHS, the ambulances do not even come where I presently am. It's time for a transplant, I'll have to pay for this as they don't do this if you have had a stoke. They only did 180 last year anyway! I had No's 12 & 13 in November, can you believe I have had that many! So I have to now give up my life here.

I chose the Caribbean because of the fact the temp does not vary much between winter and Summer. It's about 85 today. You get less wind in summer. Life on a yacht is not cheap, I can tell you that. For anyone reading this, go get yourself a RYA yacht master and come get yourself a job on a yacht, it's not a bad life, you only get one of them. Chef's are in short supply by the way and tips are great, my crew were getting $1200 each per weeks charter! Mind you my yacht is a bit bigger than the average, so tips are bigger. deckhands get c $1,500/2000, same for a stewardess, Captain's $3,000, engineer the same and a Chef $2,500/ 3000.

So I am selling up, in a bad market, I'll buy somewhere around Lymington I hope, who knows. That's if I get my heart, if not I am not sure where I will buy, maybe the Canneries, I need free health care.

Edited by Tim Miller
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HOLA444
At the risk of sounding like a Tim Miller fan club member - SPOT ON.

Long before H. McTavish, Sibley etc popped up on this forum, I was saying how HPI was damaging our economy, and that was basically a bad thing. Many people that I spoke to disagreed with me (mainly because they couldn`t, or wouldn`t see the bigger picture). I still haven`t changed my attitude to HPI, and never will, until prices become reasonable and HPI doesn`t get out of control. UK house prices are still too high, and this should be a top priority for the government. They`re too busy "fixing" the economy by trying to get HPI to resume, or at least what they are doing is encouraging HPI. Voters have been brainwashed into thinking that HPI = Good. The government think that HPI = More votes, which sadly seems to be true.

Are you my twin? I could not agree more with you, it's not even difficult to understand either, HPI is not good. Simple! All those who desire HPI should stop to think for a moment, where will it get you? How would life be if we had steady prices? We would have less debt and more spending power.

For the likes of Sibley the alleged BTL owner (until he wakes up) you have to sell your second property to realise the gain, or MEW, which is OK until you get the inevitable boom-bust crash! The most destructive part is that those without a property or even those with just one pay the price. These people end up with a big mortgage, God forbid you have kids, you'll be giving them a deposit to buy. Where will that come from, exactly, you get a loan, you add it to your mortgage, just when you thought their off your hands and you could afford a holiday or two!

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HOLA445
Debt, this is the cause of rising unemployment, and when you are unemployed, any debt you have that isnt rescued gets really bad.

Debt is not good, it can be useful, especially usefull to governments who can be very lazy and use debt to finance their economies, not just for investment, but to PAY permanently for things.

Bulls see that ever rising prices is the reason for a booming economy....this is a false view as any economy that relies on ever increasing debt and asset prices is really just seeing inflation....the end result will always be a melt down...as we have seen.

I would rather there was NO debt, but that aint gonna happen either.

Funny, but Sibley used to be just an ordinary guy with an ordinary life, now hes a BTL scumlord....who knows what he will be next week. For certain, he wil be a TROLL throughout.

Sibley, like many others are living on a wing and a prayer.

Debt on the way up is liberating on the way down is devastating. ;)

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HOLA446
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HOLA447
Sibley, like many others are living on a wing and a prayer.

Debt on the way up is liberating on the way down is devastating. ;)

Exactly as you say. See http://www.cnbc.com/id/30308959?slide=1 and then I want bulls to tell me why they feel HPI is a good thing or even about to happen. Come on before the bubble burst it was clear that we should not be borrowing so much, OK prices are down 23% or whatever, but the debt is the same, still there. Or is it the same? Is there not the small matter of the billions in bail out funds to be repaid? Is that not a massive debt that will take at least 20 years to pay back.

As you say, debt is devastating, and boy are we in debt here in the UK. So when people read articles in what I would have thought were better papers, that HPI is back, just remember what got us here! Just remember all the ills that are out there, a broken banking system, problems with gilts and bonds, unhealthy unemployment levels and yet, for some reason, some out there think it's good that house prices are about to go up, or have done already! The last thing we want is HPI, the best thing to happen would be lower prices and lower debt.

Edited by Tim Miller
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HOLA448
Exactly as you say. See http://www.cnbc.com/id/30308959?slide=1 and then I want bulls to tell me why they feel HPI is a good thing or even about to happen. Come on before the bubble burst it was clear that we should not be borrowing so much, OK prices are down 23% or whatever, but the debt is the same, still there. Or is it the same? Is there not the small matter of the billions in bail out funds to be repaid? Is that not a massive debt that will take at least 20 years to pay back.

As you say, debt is devastating, and boy are we in debt here in the UK. So when people read articles in what I would have thought were better papers, that HPI is back, just remember what got us here! Just remember all the ills that are out there, a broken banking system, problems with gilts and bonds, unhealthy unemployment levels and yet, for some reason, some out there think house prices are about to go up, or have done already! The last thing we want is HPI, the best thing to happen would be lower prices and lower debt.

Amen to that, what person would not rather have more disposable income in their pocket to spend? ;)

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HOLA449
Amen to that, what person would not rather have more disposable income in their pocket to spend? ;)

Well I certianly would, and I`m sure a lot of others would too. I have increased my disposable income, by payiong off my mortgage as quickly as I comfortably could. It`s been a blessing, as my work has gone a lot quiter over the past 12 months. No doubt, my potential customers are finding things tough financially. I expect that a lot of folk are now facing up to the reality of having to pay off debt, while having their incomes threatened by unemployment and increased household bills. A mortgage is probably the single, most expensive outgoing that most people will ever have to pay, why would you want people to borrow more, unless you were a bank or some other VI ?

Like Tim, I have no kids, but I do feel very sorry for friend`s and family`s offspring who are facing a huge uphill task to even start to buy a property, let alone manage to pay a mortgage off.

This is where we beat the bulls, the common sense, moral argument.

Edited by Prof
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HOLA4410
Well I certianly would, and I`m sure a lot of others would too. I have increased my disposable income, by payiong off my mortgage as quickly as I comfortably could. It`s been a blessing, as my work has gone a lot quiter over the past 12 months. No doubt, my potential customers are finding things tough financially. I expect that a lot of folk are now facing up to the reality of having to pay off debt, while having their incomes threatened by unemployment and increased household bills. A mortgage is probably the single, most expensive outgoing that most people will ever have to pay, why would you want people to borrow more, unless you were a bank or some other VI ?

Like Tim, I have no kids, but I do feel very sorry for friend`s and family`s offspring who are facing a huge uphill task to even start to buy a property, let alone manage to pay a mortgage off.

This is where we beat the bulls, the common sense, moral argument.

Fifty five years ago my parents bought a plot of land and built a bungalow on it. My best mates parents bought a plot and built a 3 bed detached house in a private road, these were both first time buys. Even in today's market the 3 bed house must be worth 750,000. So how many FTB's could do this? That's what people forget, the quality of life has not improved in all areas. Exorbitant house prices have been harmful to our lives. Just think what lower prices would give us. Just think the unthinkable, just imagine if FTB's could buy a plot and build a detached house on it again. That should be the peoples goal, the government's goal. What's more, it is totally achievable. So people now have big mortgages, is that a reason to want HPI? To see them get out of negative equity. Sorry, I do not want that, we should want lower prices that would benefit almost everyone.

The thread is misguided in wanting to 'beat the bulls', life is not about that. This HPC site should be about deciding what are the best actions to be taken to improve all our lives. Where do we go from here, what do we vote for?

I hope enough people will keep questioning on the forums and comments pages the journalists who write on this subject of house prices. I love the country side, but I would rather see far more development on greenbelt as well as brown field sites to have the infrastructure to house the people in decent homes. That is the only way I can see a brighter future.

Paying 500k for a detached house is madness, it's too much debt. I want to see homes at 200k if that, 100k is better still. I want off the debt tread mill, I want to see people with enough left over being able to start their own businesses if that's what they want, to save for a rainy day, to save for their pension, to afford nice things.

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HOLA4411
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HOLA4412
Fifty five years ago my parents bought a plot of land and built a bungalow on it. My best mates parents bought a plot and built a 3 bed detached house in a private road, these were both first time buys. Even in today's market the 3 bed house must be worth 750,000. So how many FTB's could do this? That's what people forget, the quality of life has not improved in all areas. Exorbitant house prices have been harmful to our lives. Just think what lower prices would give us. Just think the unthinkable, just imagine if FTB's could buy a plot and build a detached house on it again. That should be the peoples goal, the government's goal. What's more, it is totally achievable. So people now have big mortgages, is that a reason to want HPI? To see them get out of negative equity. Sorry, I do not want that, we should want lower prices that would benefit almost everyone.

The thread is misguided in wanting to 'beat the bulls', life is not about that. This HPC site should be about deciding what are the best actions to be taken to improve all our lives. Where do we go from here, what do we vote for?

I hope enough people will keep questioning on the forums and comments pages the journalists who write on this subject of house prices. I love the country side, but I would rather see far more development on greenbelt as well as brown field sites to have the infrastructure to house the people in decent homes. That is the only way I can see a brighter future.

Paying 500k for a detached house is madness, it's too much debt. I want to see homes at 200k if that, 100k is better still. I want off the debt tread mill, I want to see people with enough left over being able to start their own businesses if that's what they want, to save for a rainy day, to save for their pension, to afford nice things.

couldnt agree more, lower interest rates should allow people to spend more of their take home on every things that create jobs, like, eating out,days out, holidays, and so on.

instead, they "decide" that using all their extra income is best spent of a few bricks and glass. usually old bricks and glass.

there you are though, a myth that house prices going up is a sign of wealth is a hard one to crack.

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HOLA4413
couldnt agree more, lower interest rates should allow people to spend more of their take home on every things that create jobs, like, eating out,days out, holidays, and so on.

instead, they "decide" that using all their extra income is best spent of a few bricks and glass. usually old bricks and glass.

there you are though, a myth that house prices going up is a sign of wealth is a hard one to crack.

That is the problem of not having enough houses to meet demand. Interest rates go up to stifle demand which is so very damaging to the economy and our lives. Another unhelpful mistake was introducing BTL mortgages!

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HOLA4414
Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable

I only started this thread because I was drunk.

Mathematical certainty in the absence of wage inflation.

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HOLA4415
I have a property I want to sell. If I put it on the market now I might have to take 10-20% off the 2007 value. That would be around £50,000 leaving me only £50,000 in equity.

I want to see a profit of £100,000 on that place. Now they are going up it's going to be sooner rather than later. I promise you it will feel great sitting in my bank account.

Understand why HPI is good now? :lol:

;)

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HOLA4416
Fifty five years ago my parents bought a plot of land and built a bungalow on it. My best mates parents bought a plot and built a 3 bed detached house in a private road, these were both first time buys. Even in today's market the 3 bed house must be worth 750,000. So how many FTB's could do this? That's what people forget, the quality of life has not improved in all areas. Exorbitant house prices have been harmful to our lives. Just think what lower prices would give us. Just think the unthinkable, just imagine if FTB's could buy a plot and build a detached house on it again. That should be the peoples goal, the government's goal. What's more, it is totally achievable. So people now have big mortgages, is that a reason to want HPI? To see them get out of negative equity. Sorry, I do not want that, we should want lower prices that would benefit almost everyone.

The thread is misguided in wanting to 'beat the bulls', life is not about that. This HPC site should be about deciding what are the best actions to be taken to improve all our lives. Where do we go from here, what do we vote for?

I hope enough people will keep questioning on the forums and comments pages the journalists who write on this subject of house prices. I love the country side, but I would rather see far more development on greenbelt as well as brown field sites to have the infrastructure to house the people in decent homes. That is the only way I can see a brighter future.

Paying 500k for a detached house is madness, it's too much debt. I want to see homes at 200k if that, 100k is better still. I want off the debt tread mill, I want to see people with enough left over being able to start their own businesses if that's what they want, to save for a rainy day, to save for their pension, to afford nice things.

Brilliant, just brilliant.

I like this bit......

"Exorbitant house prices have been harmful to our lives. Just think what lower prices would give us. Just think the unthinkable, just imagine if FTB's could buy a plot and build a detached house on it again. That should be the peoples goal, the government's goal. What's more, it is totally achievable. So people now have big mortgages, is that a reason to want HPI? To see them get out of negative equity. Sorry, I do not want that, we should want lower prices that would benefit almost everyone."

I want everyone to read, and understand this. Yes, the bulls would say "ain`t gonna happen, only in your dreams" (and I`m sure that a lot of bulls are glad about that). If the government can print money, bail out banks, send our troops to war, line their own pockets, increase and decrease taxes if they wish, then they shouldn`t have much trouble in organising some house building, and preventing future house price and debt bubbles. If ever there was a reason and a chance to really change things, it is now. Will people never learn ? :rolleyes:

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HOLA4417
There are characteristics of price changes common to all the assets you mention but in such a manner as to suggest you don't know what you're talking about. There are also differences, such as whether the asset is generally bought with cash or debt.

Then you make the "small island" argument. D'oh!

How to beat the bulls:

1) Sell your house really cheaply

2) Show them the charts so they convert

3) Rent and invest what would be your mortgage payments in an economy where living standards are likely to increase. Then use your vast wealth to buy a bull's house when he downsizes for retirement, and tell him it's just a little something for your cats.

:lol:

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HOLA4418
LOL. Financial genius at work, watch out.

Double LOL. You will show me pretty pictures and I will somehow have the desire to lose money???? NOT.

So, how are you going to do that, when RENT COSTS MORE THAN A FULL REPAYMENT MORTGAGE??????? Like it does where I live, and in large parts of the country.

Idiot.

Just as an example....

Rent for 3 bed ex council terrace---- £900 per month.

Purchase for ex council 3 bed terrace--- £150K......

Rent for 1 bed flat--- £525 per month.

Purchase for 1 bed flat--- £85K.

Please do explain, oh wise housing Guru..... How does one rent, AND invest the spare change in some other investment, when renting is MORE EXPENSIVE than buying??????

Fool.

Yeah, good luck with that. :lol::lol::lol::lol:

I suspect the cats have better financial sense than you do. Maybe you can rent from them when you end up bankrupt and pennyless in the future?

The bears are dumbing down for sure.

The process has been underway for some time.

Somewhere along the line, and in the eyes of many bears, a predictably large and sharp correction in prices turned into a terminal decline.

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HOLA4419
Brilliant, just brilliant.

I like this bit......

"Exorbitant house prices have been harmful to our lives. Just think what lower prices would give us. Just think the unthinkable, just imagine if FTB's could buy a plot and build a detached house on it again. That should be the peoples goal, the government's goal. What's more, it is totally achievable. So people now have big mortgages, is that a reason to want HPI? To see them get out of negative equity. Sorry, I do not want that, we should want lower prices that would benefit almost everyone."

I want everyone to read, and understand this. Yes, the bulls would say "ain`t gonna happen, only in your dreams" (and I`m sure that a lot of bulls are glad about that). If the government can print money, bail out banks, send our troops to war, line their own pockets, increase and decrease taxes if they wish, then they shouldn`t have much trouble in organising some house building, and preventing future house price and debt bubbles. If ever there was a reason and a chance to really change things, it is now. Will people never learn ? :rolleyes:

This is now getting a bit more radical than I am, or thought I was, however this is just a thought. Most of us would agree our homes are the most important possession we have (you do not own your family). Would it be so wrong for a government to use their own / our land or take land having paid compensation and the build on it. When I say compensate I mean pay the farmer 2 or 3 times it's farm land value. Mr Farmer has enough to buy 2 or 3 farms now. But the government only pays a set low level. Now the public get 1/8 acre for say a grand. At this stage I do not care how much is built on or how much is sold cheaply as plots. The main criteria is that it must stay affordable through covenants or taxes or both.

I just don't like the system we have now, it's crazy. I do not want to go back to rising prices again. I don't like the rabbit hutches that are being built, I have yet to see a FTB's home that had a pleasant and acceptable living area space and that includes bedrooms! Back in 1977 I bought a new Barratt house, 3 beds mid terraced, you could not get a bed in the third bedroom! I think I should have started a new thread on this.

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HOLA4420
So unemployment is a price worth paying for cheaper houses. You can try to dress that up any way you like, but that is your position.

Well, as unemployment is obviously no more caused by low house prices than low oil prices, can i ask you if you feel a wrecked, indebted economy, such as we have, is a price worth paying for HPI?

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HOLA4421
Will just stand our ground. Shoulder to shoulder. Brer Bear to Brer Bear. United as a wall.

God Bless the Ursuline.

Fear us, for we are Mighty!

We dont have to beat the bears, they win by paying more for a place to live in and hence, more interest on their debt payments. They are enslaved. They are destroying the country. They are forcing the talented and the young people of the country to leave. Let them win if thyats what they want.

I win by not buying. By leaving this country and working abroad. By not paying debt to save a bunch of bankers.

So, how do we beat the bulls, we dont have to, they beat themselves.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
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HOLA4422
Well, as unemployment is obviously no more caused by low house prices than low oil prices, can i ask you if you feel a wrecked, indebted economy, such as we have, is a price worth paying for HPI?

Beat me to it, I was going to ask Hamish a similar question.

Hamish tried to suggest that I was being extremist and selfish by saying that higher unemployment (in the short term) is a price worth paying if our economy starts to rely less on house price inflation as a way of creating wealth.

I`ll make it clear. I believe that the current rise in unemployment is quite closely linked to house price falls and withdrawal of credit by the banks. We have to ask what caused this situation. Well, I`m perhaps not so qualified in the finer points of economics as some members of this forum, but I do believe I have a reasonable grasp on what`s been going on in the UK economy. We had a credit binge & unsustainable housing boom, which was always going to lead to a bust, which in turn would lead to rising unemployment. I DON`T WELCOME THIS RISE IN UNEMPLOYMENT, but it could be an opportunity to rebuild our economy, without the aid of massive consumer debt and speculative wealth created in the homes in which we live. I would like to think that unemployment can be reduced very quickly, but I realise that it will take time. I`d like to see jobs being created in manufacturing, innovation, science and engineering. We need to start making stuff again. How can we possibly compete with the large manufacturing nations, such as China, when we need to earn so much money just for a basic need like a roof over our heads ?

In fact, wether we like it or not, our country now relies on a lot of foreign investment. I`d imagine that a multinational company, looking to expand their operation overseas, will look at various factors before setting operations in a particular country. I expect that wages are a major consideration. And what is the biggest influence on wage requirements ?

Lower house prices could lead to rising employment and a happier society. Sounds good to me.

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HOLA4423
Well, as unemployment is obviously no more caused by low house prices than low oil prices, can i ask you if you feel a wrecked, indebted economy, such as we have, is a price worth paying for HPI?

The two are unrelated.

Unless you want to be all little englander pretend that the recession the entire world is experiencing is all due to UK HPI and is all Gordon Brown's fault.

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