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Conservative Government This Year...

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What do you anticipate would happpen if Gordon Brown would step down within the next few days, a general election were to take place before November '09 and the Conservatives won?

Its clear Labour want to reinflate the housing bubble and Gordon Brown has denied that house prices are too high.

I can imagine the public sector will be a blood bath but what of interest rates? Can you see them below 3% for the next couple of years?

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I for one would prefer Labour to try with another idiot before the economy really implodes - don't want to take any chances with who gets the blame for this. Not sure five years is enough this time!

:lol:

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What do you anticipate would happpen if Gordon Brown would step down within the next few days, a general election were to take place before November '09 and the Conservatives won?

Its clear Labour want to reinflate the housing bubble and Gordon Brown has denied that house prices are too high.

I can imagine the public sector will be a blood bath but what of interest rates? Can you see them below 3% for the next couple of years?

Published by John Redwood at 5:50 am under Blog

The Monetary Policy Committee will probably keep interest rates at 0.5% and chug on with their programme of quantitative easing. This policy will keep house prices higher than they need to be, will keep many savers starved of a proper return, will extend the government bond bubble,encourage too much debt and do nothing to sort out the huge imbalances in our distorted economy.

Sometime the authorities have to

1. End quantitative easing

2. Curb the public deficit

3. Bring the recommended interest rate into line with the reality of what banks are offering and charging

4.Offer help in the form of lower taxes and less regulation to the exporting private sector, to slash the trade deficit further

They may not want to start to do this even now, but they could at least tell us they want to do it, and sketch a timetable for returning their management of money markets to something more normal. Otherwise it will look as if they are just going in for a political fix for this year, delaying the essential adjustments the economy needs to make.

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Cameron will have to really cut hard on public spending if he is to be different to Brown et al. In fact the City don't think "Dave" has the balls to do it.

One key area of spending that is way out of kilter is the public subsidy of rents.

If I were Osborne (I would be rich and not wasting my time titting about playing silly games in Westminster, but I digress...) I would cap what is paid out.

Falling rent yields will affect the capital value of rental property. This is the sh1tty flat sector - already hardest hit in the UK.

While this will alienate a few Tory voters the new government will have 5 years to fill its boots and its mates in big City businesses before being kicked out again.

The UK public are so moronic they never remember anything (my hairdresser - about 50 ish - denied ever having seen property fall in value - "what about the 90s?" I ask - "nope - don't remember that..") but they have great nostalgia - Mrs Thatcher was so wonderful etc etc despite being the most hated PM ever and having full scale riots and public disobedience over her tax policies.

Brown will be remembered fondly by the time Dave and his toff mates have started to line their nests. Just like the Russians want Stalin back :D

Edited by non frog

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They'll be desperate to sustain property prices.

+1 on property prices.

But they will be better than Labour. ;)

Public sector cuts would be great, but are more likely to be eased in through spending freezes than outright slash and burn.

Dave (call me Dave) Cameron is in reality so close to Blair politically it would be difficult to get a cigarette paper between them.

Edited by HAMISH_MCTAVISH

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Unemployment will soar under the Tories as I fear Cameron and Co are Thatcherites.

A Tory Govt may will see the end of the UK as Scotland goes its own way. Wales would be fecked though as would the NE of England.

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Dave (call me Dave) Cameron is in reality so close to Blair politically it would be difficult to get a cigarette paper between them.

If you believe that you misunderstand either Cameron or Blair or both of them.

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The Tories are really going to cut hard. I didn't buy for a MINUTE this "nicey nicey" PR spin of Cameron.

House prices have only one way to go and that is down. I don't believe they have as much vested interest in HPI than Labour did, since Labour needed to get people feeling rich in order to tax them more to fund their socialist plans. As long as the bubble went on people were content with a Labour government.

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but they have great nostalgia - Mrs Thatcher was so wonderful etc etc despite being the most hated PM ever and having full scale riots and public disobedience over her tax policies.

You're saying Thatcher was more hated than Brown? Come on get real.

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+1 on property prices.

But they will be better than Labour. ;)

Public sector cuts would be great, but are more likely to be eased in through spending freezes than outright slash and burn.

Dave (call me Dave) Cameron is in reality so close to Blair politically it would be difficult to get a cigarette paper between them.

wait for it....

:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

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The Tories are really going to cut hard. I didn't buy for a MINUTE this "nicey nicey" PR spin of Cameron.

House prices have only one way to go and that is down. I don't believe they have as much vested interest in HPI than Labour did, since Labour needed to get people feeling rich in order to tax them more to fund their socialist plans. As long as the bubble went on people were content with a Labour government.

Dream on. Cameron is an emasculated twunt who doesn't have the balls to slash and burn the public sector and benefits culture. I wish he would, but he won't. If he did, that would be a price worth paying for a house price crash. ;)

We only selected him as leader because at the time he was the best alternative to Blair, and the previous leaders had failed miserably challenging El Slicko. Had we known then what we know now, that Bliar would leave and anyone short of Hitler could beat Brown, he'd still be snorting Coke with Osborne and falling asleep on the back benches.

As for prices, if you for one second think that the Conservatives, my party, the party of money loving capitalists everywhere, would seriously try to stop the inevitable next boom in any asset class, let alone the asset class of the masses, who have to re-elect them, you are sorely misguided. Oh, they'll make a few noises here and there, but they'll do nothing to stop it.

Edited by HAMISH_MCTAVISH

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Dream on. Cameron is an emasculated twunt who doesn't have the balls to slash and burn the public sector and benefits culture. I wish he would, but he won't. If he did, that would be a price worth paying for a house price crash. ;)

As for prices, if you for one second think that the Conservatives, my party, the party of money loving capitalists everywhere, would seriously try to stop the inevitable next boom in any asset class, let alone the asset class of the masses, who have to re-elect them, you are sorely misguided. Oh, they'll make a few noises here and there, but they'll do nothing to stop it.

You're right that the Conservatives will be unable to stop it - the BUST in house prices that is. Boom? Market forces say no.

If you believe a boom is coming in the next 5 years (4 if the election is sooner rather than later) you're deluded!!

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Yep.

Tories get voted in at next election

All the bad news unwinds - pfi, debt levels, mass unemployment through till 2010 etc

Tories say 'we need a fresh start' to the public

Massive cost cutting undertaken in government

About the last problem we will have is where house prices are (which by then will be in freefall by then)

House prices go down (probably bottom in 2012)

Everything gets blamed on Brown and his gimps

Only my very humble opinion.

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I think if the government falls and there's a general election in, say, November, it will result in a weak minority Conservative government.

One has to think about voter shifting patterns. Labour deserters probably go to Lib Dems, SNP and Plaid Cymru, with a few going to BNP and a lot not voting at all. Conervatives will lose voters to UKIP but not gain many from Labour or Lib Dem.

My prediction would be Conservative (largest but no overall majority), Lib Dems second, Labour third, with neither UKIP or BNP getting any seats at Westminster. UKIP's main contribution would be to weaken the Conservative vote.

Edited by blankster

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Tories get voted in at next election

All the bad news unwinds - pfi, debt levels, mass unemployment through till 2010 etc

Tories say 'we need a fresh start' to the public

Massive cost cutting undertaken in government

About the last problem we will have is where house prices are (which by then will be in freefall by then)

House prices go down (probably bottom in 2012)

Everything gets blamed on Brown and his gimps

Only my very humble opinion.

Labour throws everything at ending the recession by years end, and succeed. (printy printy)

House prices start rising firmly by next spring.

Unemployment falls slow to a trickle.

Labour says "Look, we averted a depression, and saved the world from calamity"

Tories win anyway, but closer than we expect.

Tories don't then have the balls to plunge the country back into recession, and cop the blame for it. (poisoned chalice)

Just my opinion. (But almost guaranteed to happen anyway)

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Labour throws everything at ending the recession by years end, and succeed. (printy printy)

House prices start rising firmly by next spring.

Unemployment falls slow to a trickle.

Labour says "Look, we averted a depression, and saved the world from calamity"

Tories win anyway, but closer than we expect.

Tories don't then have the balls to plunge the country back into recession, and cop the blame for it. (poisoned chalice)

Just my opinion. (But almost guaranteed to happen anyway)

*VI believes what he wants to believe shock*

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Why?

Because they wouldn't want to be the party that would preside over a crash and that's what I don't understand what some of the people wish for here

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Any incoming government that doesn't deal with the problem left to them will end up owning it when it becomes too big again and sinks them. All they have to do is say they are in the same situation as '79, having to sweep up the mess left by the previous administration, except much, much worse this time. It is not as if the public deep down don't realise this. The large majority of the public sector will still vote labour whilst they have a hole in their ****, so not many votes lost there.

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