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Kazuya

Conservative Government This Year...

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+1 on property prices.

But they will be better than Labour. ;)

Public sector cuts would be great, but are more likely to be eased in through spending freezes than outright slash and burn.

Dave (call me Dave) Cameron is in reality so close to Blair politically it would be difficult to get a cigarette paper between them.

House price inflation was financed by excessive public spending, and it is only public spending that is preventing another masssive fall. The bank nationalisation programme, for instance, has now extended the public sector into running banks, the underwriting of personal debt, issuing more sub-prime mortgages and paying bankers bonuses.

However, they've managed to cut probabtion services, which has obviously paid dividends in maintaining our reputation as a dangerous and violent nation.

The new government will have zero room for manouver. It's like Obama after Bush. Who notices a difference?

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I can imagine the public sector will be a blood bath but what of interest rates? Can you see them below 3% for the next couple of years?

Interest rates seem to me somewhat independent of who is in power.

Seems to me of course interest rates (if you mean BOE rate) will stay down, because of lack of inflation.

Energy prices have now come down from their highs. Food price inflation has largely been caused by the pound being low, which it isn't so much now, and supermarkets wiping out everyone else and getting local monopoly status.

The main thing is complete lack of wage inflation - in fact probably wage deflation is to be expected

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With a new mandate David Cameron could afford to take the axe to public spending.

In any event, think of all the unnecessary spending that could be cut without affecting services; all those quangos and special consultants for a start.

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Brown is throwing everything into propping up the housing market because he knows it is key to winning the election. A new government will not be so concerned about such matters.

What I don't understand about this argument is that everyone has said that the reason the current government turned a blind eye to what was going on was because of flipping houses etc etc.. The Tories have historically been the party of the landed gentry , look at Cameron's little pad with half the mortgage (£350000 ) on the tax payer , can't see anyone in the Tory party or anyone who would vote Tory not wanting to vote anyone out that would attempt to "penalise" them (McTavish's word not mine) , by the price of their property falling.

Although quite why Mc Tavish thinks that he would be penalised by the price of his property falling , rather than seeing this as the whole country being penalised by the kind of capitalist (McTavish's word for himself) self interest that allowed property to inflate in the first place 147% since 1999 and left the counry bankrupt I can't imagine. However, what seems even more shocking is that McTavish believes it can happen all over again despite the UK having to pay for the last mess until at least 2032 that is if the banks and the country ever recover.

But what is the answer? Liberals might take the steps but we all know that they have not got a hope in hell of getting in.

Edited by Sybil13

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You're saying Thatcher was more hated than Brown? Come on get real.

I don´t know what the poll readings at the time were but towards the end of her reign Maggie was indeed very unpopular. It was primarily that fact that led her own MPs, then worried about their own seats, to oust her.

Many people don´t remember just how unpopular she was.

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Two for the price of one soon Hamish.

And what will a "pure unbridled capitalist" base his identity on then if his property loses 50% + in value? I guess this is a BIG problem for the VI's who must be about to lose so much in inheritances too.

I never read this in a thread myself but someone the other day said that Hamish said:

Unless you have £100k of equity by 36, you are "pathetic"

I wonder if he has any children? As I keep saying it is to be hoped they fell a long way from the tree and will not care if Daddy thinks they are "pathetic" if they base their value system on something other than money .

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If Dave got in next time you can pretty much guarantee that public spending would be slashed. Infrastructure spending would disappear. Schools, hospitals and roads would be cancelled.

This is certain - it happened in the early '90s.

The elephant that is public sector pension unsustainability will be duely ignored, however.

As to start pruning that collosus would involve closer scrutiny of the pension benefits of the House, which are beyond gold plated.

He would be a very unpopular chap with his collegues if he were to address this.

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I don´t know what the poll readings at the time were but towards the end of her reign Maggie was indeed very unpopular. It was primarily that fact that led her own MPs, then worried about their own seats, to oust her.

Many people don´t remember just how unpopular she was.

Thatcher was hated to extremes that Brown has not reached yet

she was also loved to extremes that Brown has never experienced

Brown is incompetent and dillusional Thatcher was just evil

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Unemployment will soar under the Tories as I fear Cameron and Co are Thatcherites.

A Tory Govt may will see the end of the UK as Scotland goes its own way. Wales would be fecked though as would the NE of England.

Scotland can't go its own way without Westminster's acquiescance. I personally see the end of the Scottish Parliament, in a very similar way to Thatchers abolition of the GLC.

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Unemployment will soar under the Tories as I fear Cameron and Co are Thatcherites.

A Tory Govt may will see the end of the UK as Scotland goes its own way. Wales would be fecked though as would the NE of England.

Oops double post

Edited by bagsos

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If Dave got in next time you can pretty much guarantee that public spending would be slashed. Infrastructure spending would disappear. Schools, hospitals and roads would be cancelled.

This is certain - it happened in the early '90s.

The elephant that is public sector pension unsustainability will be duely ignored, however.

As to start pruning that collosus would involve closer scrutiny of the pension benefits of the House, which are beyond gold plated. He would be a very unpopular chap with his collegues if he were to address this.

I think he has already promised to deal with both these issues?

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I never read this in a thread myself but someone the other day said that Hamish said:

Unless you have £100k of equity by 36, you are "pathetic"

:lol:

Not quite. (I love the HPC gossip mill though)

The quote you refer to was my response to CCC accusing myself, and quite a few other people, of being "Jealous" of him, for living at home with his parents, having a masterplan that consisted of pissing away money in his 20's, becoming a "Kipper" in his 30's, and then counting on a crash to come along, and maybe, IF he sees 50% falls, being able to own a 100K flat outright at the age of 36...... :rolleyes:

I noted that instead of doing this, he could have just been responsible when he was younger, bought a house as young as possible, and ended up mortgage free by 38 like myself, but with 400K in equity. By comparison to that, yes, 100K does look a bit pathetic. CCC was confusing jealousy with pity. A mistake that he makes quite often.

By 36, he should really have a hell of a lot more than 100K in equity. The key to personal wealth is, (for around 15 years out of every 18 year cycle anyway), to buy property as young as possible, and never waste money on paying someone elses mortgage for them. If a crash comes along when you happen to be of age to buy your first place, fair enough, wait it out. For everyone else though, it really is as simple as buying young.

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What do you anticipate would happpen if Gordon Brown would step down within the next few days, a general election were to take place before November '09 and the Conservatives won?

Its clear Labour want to reinflate the housing bubble and Gordon Brown has denied that house prices are too high.

I can imagine the public sector will be a blood bath but what of interest rates? Can you see them below 3% for the next couple of years?

If Brown steps down there will not be an election until next year.

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Just been looking at the Mori poll archive. From it it appears that Maggie at her Nadir was indeed less popular than Brown is now.

http://www.ipsos-mori.com/content/politica...tings.ashx#1987

Nov 1990

Gov't Thatcher Kinnock Ashdown

Sat Dis Sat Dis Sat Dis Sat Dis

% % % % % % % %

22 73 25 71 42 41 37 30

Apr 2009

Gov't Brown Cameron Clegg

Sat Dis Sat Dis Sat Dis Sat Dis

% % % % % % % %

23 70 32 60 52 29 39 25

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Scotland can't go its own way without Westminster's acquiescance. I personally see the end of the Scottish Parliament, in a very similar way to Thatchers abolition of the GLC.

If Westminster tried to stop democratic Independence there would be civil war

England does NOT own and control Scotland

in act if anything its just the opposite

whurs ma Claymore !!

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+1 on property prices.

But they will be better than Labour. ;)

Public sector cuts would be great, but are more likely to be eased in through spending freezes than outright slash and burn.

Dave (call me Dave) Cameron is in reality so close to Blair politically it would be difficult to get a cigarette paper between them.

what ?! the do nothing tories with their anti running budget deficits during near depression, anti nationalisation of beyond hope banks like NR and lukewarm stance on the fiscal stimulus would do better at propping up house prices ?

oh yeah, i forgot, scrapping stamp duty and inheritance tax would do the trick. :rolleyes:

arguably the biggest unconvential prop to house prices is the monetary measures implemented by the independent BoE, so not much to do with either party really....except brown&balls were the one's who took the plunge and put the bank in charge of IR setting/inflation targetting....if cameron was still in the treasury in the late 90's he would have probably done nothing as far as that was concerned aswell, but then maybe he'd have been overwhelmed by greenspans charisma and fallen into line.

Face it, labour have been ahead of the game as fas as reaction to the downturn compared to the tories.....the tories with their outdated thinking re spending cuts and worrying unnecessarily about budget deficits would have been utterly hopeless.

That's why you should be a nulabour devotee rather than a prat in a tory dinosaur suit.

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I noted that instead of doing this, he could have just been responsible when he was younger, bought a house as young as possible, and ended up mortgage free by 38 like myself, but with 400K in equity.

Yes, that way he could have had 200K in equity by the time he was 40.

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I noted that instead of doing this, he could have just been responsible when he was younger, bought a house as young as possible, and ended up mortgage free by 38 like myself, but with 400K in equity.

Yes, he could have had 200K in equity by the time he was 40.

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:lol:

Not quite. (I love the HPC gossip mill though)

The quote you refer to was my response to CCC accusing myself, and quite a few other people, of being "Jealous" of him, for living at home with his parents, having a masterplan that consisted of pissing away money in his 20's, becoming a "Kipper" in his 30's, and then counting on a crash to come along, and maybe, IF he sees 50% falls, being able to own a 100K flat outright at the age of 36...... :rolleyes:

I noted that instead of doing this, he could have just been responsible when he was younger, bought a house as young as possible, and ended up mortgage free by 38 like myself, but with 400K in equity. By comparison to that, yes, 100K does look a bit pathetic. CCC was confusing jealousy with pity. A mistake that he makes quite often.

By 36, he should really have a hell of a lot more than 100K in equity. The key to personal wealth is, (for around 15 years out of every 18 year cycle anyway), to buy property as young as possible, and never waste money on paying someone elses mortgage for them. If a crash comes along when you happen to be of age to buy your first place, fair enough, wait it out. For everyone else though, it really is as simple as buying young.

So, you acknowledge the 18year cycle which will mean your 400K of equity won't be worth 400k for another decade. By which time you will be 48.

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I wouldn't be so sure:

http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/2009/06/0...nd-needs-to-do/

Ok, Mr Redwood is not the leading light he once was, but for sure his is the truest sort of Conservative.

Duh?!? Redwood's ideas are about as welcome in Cameron's policy thinking as Fred Harrison's. I can't believe that the British people are still so easy to con by spin and flam that they are turning to the Tories under Dave (call me Tony) Cameron. We just can't seem to lift our eyes to see the big picture can we.

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So, you acknowledge the 18year cycle which will mean your 400K of equity won't be worth 400k for another decade. By which time you will be 48.

:lol::lol:

I acknowledge there is a cycle, and that in general terms it seems to average 18 years. However, it can be shorter or longer, and everything about this crash indicates it is being time compressed compared to the last one. And the one before that was also much shorter. Besides, as you know full well, there are also local factors which can distort the cycle. Rising oil prices should do that for Aberdeen relatively soon, given the current trajectory of oil. ;)

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What do you anticipate would happpen if Gordon Brown would step down within the next few days, a general election were to take place before November '09 and the Conservatives won?

Its clear Labour want to reinflate the housing bubble and Gordon Brown has denied that house prices are too high.

Well not only do we an unelected PM in Brown but we also have a unelected cabinet, Brown could give all

voters a million pounds he still wouldn't win an election.

Gordon "sack everyone and bring in your mates" Brown, the recssion is down to you and no one else.

Don't tell me brown and Labour coming last in the election is down to the Americans.

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