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TheCountOfNowhere

I'm Looking Forward To Next Monrht Figures...

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As it says on the tin, next months figures will be down.

If the Hali-wide figures arent both down I'll eat Kirsty Allsops hat.

I've watched the spring bounce in action this year and there was definately a bounce. Im amazed at the number pf people that are surprised by these "shock" reported increases. Even the lenders are saying, "we're surprised", "low volumes", "dont read anything into this".

It's over though and the next few months will confirm that.

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Thats a bold prediction. I'm confident prices will continue their downward trend but I fear the engineered bounce may last the summer.

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This week's figures will get more people out buying - it is only natural. Don't you realise, the economy is sound now!?

From the people I talk to, no one now wants to buy, sales starting to drag on/fall through, everyones having pay cuts/job losses. Got 2 people at working wanting to STR, convinced now is the right time to get out if they could get a good price for their houses.

The only thing creating this bounce has been the low interest rates and them that's been able to take advantage of it will now have done so by now. Good luck to them.

Its down from here for a while me thinks....time will tell.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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has anyone read the market oracles latest on this ?

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article11088.html

i tend to agree .. the bounce may sustain till the next election .. the downturn after that would be the nightmare

That sounds about spot on and what some of us have been saying on here.

My rationale about falls next month is partly from the last 3 months the Haliwide have more of less reported the same increase, one in 2 monthly increases and one in 1 huge jump. The likelyhood is that a big increase one month will make it more likely that we'll see a drop the next. This holds true with the last crash where there was pretty much only ever one monthly increase at a time.

Ill bump this thread up next month and I'll let you know how tasty Krustys hat is.

Remember, I said HAT and not TWA......there's just somethings i'd just not fancy get my mouth anywhere near :P

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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I doubt it, but I think the downward record month will be broken before the year's end. :lol:

Agreed.

June, July, August up.

Stupid or insecure people going into big debt to get onto the property "ladder".

Then WHOOSH. Hold onto the handrail ladies and gentlemen; this escalator is going down fast.

If it's somebody I know I will try to stop them. I have a heart.

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Both sets of figures could be down next month, but I'm expecting the figures to be mixed for the next few years. Overall they'll trickle downwards in absolute terms and real terms if inflation kicks in.

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I would wait for the misery of our long dark winter if I were you. SAD syndrome all round. Misery reigns only to be lifted by inflatable Father Christmases and flickering lights adorning pebble dashed houses.

That, when in combination with your avatar, has to win the prize for "most depressing post."

I'm not the only cynic.

Cheers,

Nick

OOH, Jonathan Davis on Radio 5 now.

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I don't really care about these monthly movements

It's a bit like investing in a stock for me. I'll look at it again in about a year or so.

Edited by wealthy

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I think the figures will be static for the next 3 months then big rises.

Asking prices will defiantly be up to 2007 levels from now on. Once people realize the recessions over housing sentiment will return with a vengeance.

I think some on here will be shocked at next years HPI.

Do you know what an apostrophe is?

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I think the figures will be static for the next 3 months then big rises.

Asking prices will defiantly be up to 2007 levels from now on. Once people realize the recessions over housing sentiment will return with a vengeance.

I think some on here will be shocked at next years HPI.

For future reference, no one here cares what you think. You have shown yourself to be an idiot time after time. So the next time you want to open that sh1t hole that you call a mouth please stop and think. Its 7:15 now, so you better f#ck off and start doing your fat tie knot or you will never make it into the office on time.

Edited by Fortunate Son

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Do you know what an apostrophe is?
For future reference, no one here cares what you think. You have shown yourself to be an idiot time after time. So the next time you want to open that sh1t hole that you call a mouth please stop and think. Its 7:15 now, so you better f#ck off and start doing your fat tie not or you will never make it into the office on time.

Please stop quoting Sibley.

I have him on ignore as I do not wish to read his nonsense. You know what he will say before he says it so why spend time finding out precisely what his particular brand of time-wasting has generated on this occasion?

Edited by Frank Hovis

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As it says on the tin, next months figures will be down.

If the Hali-wide figures arent both down I'll eat Kirsty Allsops hat.

I've watched the spring bounce in action this year and there was definately a bounce. Im amazed at the number pf people that are surprised by these "shock" reported increases. Even the lenders are saying, "we're surprised", "low volumes", "dont read anything into this".

It's over though and the next few months will confirm that.

don't eat your hat - i wouldn't be surprised if we see small rises next month again. these figures will build confidence and the bull trap/spring bounce could last a few months more.

and my view now is that the recession will be a saw shaped one - like a W but will lots of little ups and downs for years will the debt deleverages. as a result house prices will sink slowly for years. i don't think IR will go up sharply as it will affect the recovery.... and whilst rates are so low unlikely to be another sharp drop down. so IMO we'll see ups and downs in house prices but overall more downs than ups!

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I would not be surprised to see prices increasingly modestly for the next few months. QE is having some effect as are record low interest rates and other govt measures and doubtless that will cheer the bulls but the crisis has to be paid for.

The tax and interest rate rises are inevitable and still to kick in. They've only been delayed for political reasons. When they do, the public will finally wake up and realise what a truly disasterous position the UK's finances are in.

Doubtless the Tories will win the next election and when they do, expect huge swathes of the bloated public sector to be axed. Unemployment will shoot up and huge numbers will be repossesed.

Bulls are blinkered and rush in where angels fear to tread. Bears see the big picture and tread carefully. Ultimately life is a compromise between the two positions, but for now I wouldn't be considering buying in the UK.

(Not that I ever would as you can enjoy a better life just about anywhere else for less).

Edited by Dave Spart

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I am beginning to think that the time buy a house may occur when my local estate agents start to advertise properties in their windows that are for sale, rather than just show displays of those they have sold.

But then again I am rethinking whether after 40 years I actually need to own a house. At one time I was worried about the hassle of being pinned down to a region of the UK. Now I am more concerned about the hassle of being 'pinned' down to the UK.

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As it says on the tin, next months figures will be down.

If the Hali-wide figures arent both down I'll eat Kirsty Allsops hat.

I've watched the spring bounce in action this year and there was definately a bounce. Im amazed at the number pf people that are surprised by these "shock" reported increases. Even the lenders are saying, "we're surprised", "low volumes", "dont read anything into this".

It's over though and the next few months will confirm that.

Something that sticks in my mind from this article I read this morning;

http://www.lovemoney.com/news/the-property...uoofolrf0010002

The ratio of house prices to average earnings is still above its late-Eighties peak - and it is more than twice the low reached in the depths of the mid-Nineties.

Under the current economic conditions the direction has to be down but there are 1000's of zombie borrowers being created due to ridiculously low interest rates which are at rock bottom and can only rise. Therefore there will be a 'stabilisation' phase and how long this will last is a bit of a guess at the moment.

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... Once people realize the recessions over housing sentiment will return with a vengeance.

I think some on here will be shocked at next years HPI.

thanks for the tip, i've made a very careful note of it.

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