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HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Crash So Far. How Much/little Off Prices Where You Live?

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Theres been a lot of discussion lately about regional variances in falls from peak.

Thought this might be interesting to see how big or small the differences really are, and how it compares to the averages.

Edited by HAMISH_MCTAVISH

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Intelligent debate, bear style. :rolleyes:

But thanks for the bump. :lol:

Now as you well know there are regional variations within the regions so a bit difficult. But if you want a sensible answer, I am seeing some sales appear in the land reg (so not repos) 10% above 2002 prices, but also some sales that are going through at only 10% below 2007 prices.

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I live in the east of england (no option on the vote form) and for what I am in (nice 4 bed cottage in about an acre)... theres a) very little if anything about, B) what there has been doesn't seem to have dropped in price at all really...... its different though if you are looking for say a terraced house in one of the local towns.. ipswich/colchester etc.

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Intelligent debate, bear style. :rolleyes:

But thanks for the bump. :lol:

Ah bless this is your daily cry for attention here isn't it.

You are not worthy of inteligent debate - simple, it would be a total waste of my time.

A shameless bump for a sad little troll who needs constant attention - doing my bit for the intelectually challenged..

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Now as you well know there are regional variations within the regions so a bit difficult. But if you want a sensible answer, I am seeing some sales appear in the land reg (so not repos) 10% above 2002 prices, but also some sales that are going through at only 10% below 2007 prices.

No, I know there are thousands of local markets with massive differences, even close by each other. But it's of course impracticla to put together a poll that detailed.

Just trying to get a general idea of what the market is like for individuals, in the property type they are looking for..

In other words, if the average person had to buy today, the type of house you are looking for, in the place you want it, what sort of discount off peak is the average in your local area.

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In other words, if the average person had to buy today, the type of house you are looking for, in the place you want it, what sort of discount off peak is the average in your local area.

Basic average is 15% offf then. Some more, some less.

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Theres been a lot of discussion lately about regional variances in falls from peak.

Thought this might be interesting to see how big or small the differences really are, and how it compares to the averages.

15 million down from 23 million.

(I made that up)

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25% off a 4-bed detached.

A couple we know bought a 4-bed detached in a (at the time) popular new development in Peterborough for £280k back in mid-2007. Off-plan, didn't negotiate, and had to supply their own turf (which in itself caused problems because they didn't want to use the developer's supplier), flooring and door fittings (the developer wanted to fit crap).

An identical house is currently on the market for a few quid under £200k.

It wouldn't be too bad if they actually liked the area, but two weeks after moving in they realised it was simply a building site and that they, and those they live alongside were suckered in.

I went round about a year ago for a party. One of their neighbours was a family with eight kids (yes i did say eight). Both parents english natives, neither of them worked, and living in essentially the same house with the rent paid for by the taxpayer. Now call me cynical, but doesn't that somehow seem wrong? Hard working couple who made a bad financial decision, influenced by the media, VI spin, government VI in HPI exposed by the recent expenses nonsense, are £80k+ down, yet lay-about couple with no desire to do anything other than breed likeminded sprogs are laughing???

Thanks New Labour.

Hamish: With the greatest respect, the current situation simply has to be addressed. If you have an interest in HPI taking off again then you really need to take a long, hard look at yourself and question yourself why. It simply isn't healthy for this country's long term prosperity.

edit: forgot to add the date they bought, without which figures are meaningless.

Edited by the stig

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So Far.....

One third- less than 10%

One third- 10% to 20%

One third- 20% to 40%

Which is kind of interesting, as I'd expected a bigger and tighter cluster around the 17% national average, with only a few outliers.

Edited by HAMISH_MCTAVISH

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I think this is a useful poll, for what it's worth.

I'm beginning to wonder whether we're seeing the start of a 'crack up boom', engineered through the (near) ZIRP and QE, in which case maybe it's better to go all in, with the assumption that inflation will wipe out the debt. I will seriously go for a 4X mortgage to buy a fantastic property, along with my STR fund, if it looks like this is the way things are going.

If we see rises in both indices for the next 2 months, particularly if they are +1%, I may make my move. I must admit that I didn't see such consistent rises in the indices coming, and at the moment don't really know what to make of it.

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I think this is a useful poll, for what it's worth.

Yes I thought it would be interesting after the threads discussing regional variances in the last few days. It does certainly seem that there are massive variances.

Edited by HAMISH_MCTAVISH

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I live in Aberdeen and am seeing 40% plus of detached and terraced houses. Not tempted yet, still way over-priced.

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25% off a 4-bed detached.

A couple we know bought a 4-bed detached in a (at the time) popular new development in Peterborough for �280k back in mid-2007. Off-plan, didn't negotiate, and had to supply their own turf (which in itself caused problems because they didn't want to use the developer's supplier), flooring and door fittings (the developer wanted to fit crap).

An identical house is currently on the market for a few quid under £200k.

It wouldn't be too bad if they actually liked the area, but two weeks after moving in they realised it was simply a building site and that they, and those they live alongside were suckered in.

I went round about a year ago for a party. One of their neighbours was a family with eight kids (yes i did say eight). Both parents english natives, neither of them worked, and living in essentially the same house with the rent paid for by the taxpayer. Now call me cynical, but doesn't that somehow seem wrong? Hard working couple who made a bad financial decision, influenced by the media, VI spin, government VI in HPI exposed by the recent expenses nonsense, are £80k+ down, yet lay-about couple with no desire to do anything other than breed likeminded sprogs are laughing???

Thanks New Labour.

Hamish: With the greatest respect, the current situation simply has to be addressed. If you have an interest in HPI taking off again then you really need to take a long, hard look at yourself and question yourself why. It simply isn't healthy for this country's long term prosperity.

edit: forgot to add the date they bought, without which figures are meaningless.

'Hamish: With the greatest respect, the current situation simply has to be addressed. If you have an interest in HPI taking off again then you really need to take a long, hard look at yourself and question yourself why. It simply isn't healthy for this country's long term prosperity.'

This is my view, my concern, why oh why would anyone want house prices to increase? I do not have children, but even I worry for the kids, what a miserable existence they have to look forward to. Some bulls just do not get it at all. Why would anyone want to pay so much for a home?

There is the defence the bulls give of it's inevitable prices go up, but again, they just do not get it, Hamish certainly does not. Prices as they are are just too over valued, prices are well over the accepted 3.5 level of borrowings over wages. And yet the bulls are rejoicing at their misguided belief prices are about to take off again! How stupid is this. There are controls that can be used to keep prices low, unfortunately one of those is high interest rates. So, that's what we can look forward to, great, just perfect.

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25% off a 4-bed detached.

A couple we know bought a 4-bed detached in a (at the time) popular new development in Peterborough for �280k back in mid-2007. Off-plan, didn't negotiate, and had to supply their own turf (which in itself caused problems because they didn't want to use the developer's supplier), flooring and door fittings (the developer wanted to fit crap).

An identical house is currently on the market for a few quid under £200k.

It wouldn't be too bad if they actually liked the area, but two weeks after moving in they realised it was simply a building site and that they, and those they live alongside were suckered in.

I went round about a year ago for a party. One of their neighbours was a family with eight kids (yes i did say eight). Both parents english natives, neither of them worked, and living in essentially the same house with the rent paid for by the taxpayer. Now call me cynical, but doesn't that somehow seem wrong? Hard working couple who made a bad financial decision, influenced by the media, VI spin, government VI in HPI exposed by the recent expenses nonsense, are £80k+ down, yet lay-about couple with no desire to do anything other than breed likeminded sprogs are laughing???

Thanks New Labour.

Hamish: With the greatest respect, the current situation simply has to be addressed. If you have an interest in HPI taking off again then you really need to take a long, hard look at yourself and question yourself why. It simply isn't healthy for this country's long term prosperity.

edit: forgot to add the date they bought, without which figures are meaningless.

Rinoa made these exact comments earlier on why not to buy a new build - uncanny.

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I would like to congratulate HAMISH on this thread. I am not sure exactly how valid the results will be but it will give a good representation of sentiment amongst the HPC members of the percieved drop.

I would like to add that as the bearish on here (myself included) are looking for "bargain" houses, the drops on the houses of interest to them will probably be larger, so the results could well be valid even if the drops are significantly greater than average.

Regards

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Nice. I've been tracking the vote spoilers. Too obvious, must try harder. :lol:

Wow you're a genius. Oh and by the way I didn't actually vote since it's a troll poll.

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I would like to congratulate HAMISH on this thread. I am not sure exactly how valid the results will be but it will give a good representation of sentiment amongst the HPC members of the percieved drop.

I would like to add that as the bearish on here (myself included) are looking for "bargain" houses, the drops on the houses of interest to them will probably be larger, so the results could well be valid even if the drops are significantly greater than average.

Regards

Thanks, as I said before, I am really surprised at the results. I had expected a much more pronounced "bell curve" to emerge around the central 15% to 20% area, given the national average of 17%, with it tailing off towards the margins.

The fact that the blue line is more or less constant in the vertical all the way up and down the price bands is staggering. Thats some seriously wide variances!!!!!!! Talk about a postcode lottery. :blink:

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I'm looking at nice detached houses in a good area.

I'm seeing asking prices at about 20% off peak.. but so far none have shifted so I expect a deal could be done with at least another 5% off.

For the particular houses I am looking at I need them to drop about 35% from peak. I will wait (feel free to laugh :P)

Edited by libspero

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didnt see Legoland in the Poll.

Do they do the complete Estate agents set with mini car and mortgage adviser?

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Thanks, as I said before, I am really surprised at the results. I had expected a much more pronounced "bell curve" to emerge around the central 15% to 20% area, given the national average of 17%, with it tailing off towards the margins.

The fact that the blue line is more or less constant in the vertical all the way up and down the price bands is staggering. Thats some seriously wide variances!!!!!!! Talk about a postcode lottery. :blink:

Postcode lottery indeed.

Where i am (Peterborough) we never reallly had massive HPI. Some overpriced newbuilds seemed to follow the curve, but the older, more established areas (Orton Wistow is one of my favourites. Country park on one side, less desireable on the other side, but fundamentally a "nice" area) simply didn't take off. Don't ask me why.

On the way down the negative appears to be a true reflection of the positive. Overpriced newbuilds are suffering, but Orton Wistow and the like aren't dropping. Only those that were overpriced when originally posted by EAs have had the cream off the top shaven off, but no more.

Depressing really. Back in the late 80s my parents bought a 3 bed semi in that area for £20k. Same thing now is £140k and selling. tut tut.

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I will wait (feel free to laugh :P)

No, not laughing. If you've already seen 20%, then you at least have a chance of seeing 35%. And a much better chance of seeing mid to high twenties anyway. If you were only seeing 5% to 10% presently, as some are, then I'd probably find it slightly more amusing.

But I am genuinely interested in this topic, as it's the first time we've quantified the divergence reported anecdotally in so many other threads.

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