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Confounded

Bears Are You Seriously Rattled By This Bounce (not Even Qonq!)?

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As anyone I doubt my views when faced with such a strong tide but my period of doubt was late 07 having sold spring 07. Prices even rose in the face of the summer Credit crunch. Since then the doubt about house price has gone, the rest of my views fluctuate on the bigger issue such as Hyper inflation or deflation, national bancruptcy etc, but not house prices.

How do you stand today, with the sun shining, survivor euphoria being played out everywhere you look?

Please take the poll :rolleyes:

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Guest AuntJess

Convinced they have further to fall. It is unsustainable in terms of civil 'rest' - to have two neighbours side by side. One paying a low easy mortgage whislt t'other has a huge one and can't afford holidays, clothes, change car etc.

Edited by AuntJess

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The Halifax has reported a rise. The month before they reported a fall. The month before that they reported a fall. The rise reported today doesn't even cancel out the previous 2 months falls, let alone show an increase. There figures still show over 20% off peak.

Other than being disapointed by the size of last month's rise I don't see an issue.

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Gubbermint still printing money.

Unemployment still increasing.

Companies still going bust.

Interest rates still 0.5%

Banks still on life support.

Government still running a huge deficit.

Mortgage approvals still far below the level required for a real, sustained reecovereh.

Mortgage lending still far below the level required for a real, sustained reecovereh.

Completed sales still far below the level required for a real, sustained reecovereh.

Bond market still looking shaky.

Bulls still posting $hite on HPC.

Back to TFH land.

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Guest มร หล&#3
Gubbermint still printing money.

Unemployment still increasing.

Companies still going bust.

Interest rates still 0.5%

Banks still on life support.

Government still running a huge deficit.

Mortgage approvals still far below the level required for a real, sustained reecovereh.

Mortgage lending still far below the level required for a real, sustained reecovereh.

Completed sales still far below the level required for a real, sustained reecovereh.

Bond market still looking shaky.

Bulls still posting $hite on HPC.

Back to TFH land.

Yes they shall fall more.

But so will ftb's ability to buy one.

I don't think this HPC is what people really thought it would be. "That would be really cheap, if only we had some money."

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It's just a blip. I see it more to do with the type of mortgages they are giving out. 'Only lend on houses that have gone up 2.5% or more.' said Brown, 'Why' said the bank. 'Just effin' do it.' screamed Brown. :unsure:

More pissed of about all the VI ramping that will be coming for the next few months off the back of this. You know, people talking sh1t and using this to back it up. Ho hum. :rolleyes:

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As anyone I doubt my views when faced with such a strong tide but my period of doubt was late 07 having sold spring 07. Prices even rose in the face of the summer Credit crunch. Since then the doubt about house price has gone, the rest of my views fluctuate on the bigger issue such as Hyper inflation or deflation, national bancruptcy etc, but not house prices.

How do you stand today, with the sun shining, survivor euphoria being played out everywhere you look?

Please take the poll :rolleyes:

I don't see what everyone's getting so upset about. There was always going to be a spring bounce of some sort.

As far as I can tell, the mortgage lending figures suggest that it's mainly buyers with large cash deposits buying now and they will soon be exhausted. Once this happens, and with mortgage lending still in the doldrums there will be nothing to prop up the market any more.

This is a classic example of a dead cat bounce (as predicted by many on here). It will be over before the bulls have had a chance to zip their trousers back up and bin the tissues and the crash will resume at full speed.

Keep the faith, bears! The crash is most definitely still on.

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I've seen it all before in the last bubble. To me we have a system under the influence of forces which cannot be talked away. QE, ramping, and low IR can influence monthly figures, or maybe even yearly figures, but the forces, the main one being a loss of momentum in the bubble, will eventually win.

I just feel sorry for those who get suckered in by these micro fluctuations and the ramping which comes with them.

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dispite of these rises i still believe prices will drop to 1999 levels, and stablise at the price levels it was at in 2000

This is a very big bubble and very serious finantial crisis worse than the world has ever seen before

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I've been amazed at people of late.

A lot of this is just people buying the only asset as an inflation hedge they understand. When the cash goes (is 45% of purchases are cash at the mo?) then i think we'll be back to mostly months of falls.

Rising unemployment, high levels of existing debts (which have just been woken upto), higher interest rates to come.

A few months back and the elevator cables were cut, all thats happened is that they have managed to pull the emergency brake to slow the decent. If it holds!! lol

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This is all market manipulation to try and get labour anothr term in govt or scorch the earth for the tories and avoid wilderness years for labour.

I'm still in the mountains counting my beans and polishing my (non existant officer) guns.

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Not rattled in the slightest its going exactly according to plan. Big falls to come .

All that annoys me are these braindead bullish posters who make far to much noise considering the size of their brains.

You know who you are.

Only hope they are still around when TSHTF.

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High debt, static wages, low savings, caution to risk and unemployment will only see house prices fall further...they would have fallen further still if it had not been for low interest rates. ;)

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Now what would rattle me would be a Bull providing a meaningful answer to ANY of my questions to them.

It's all gone wrong since your makeover.

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It's all gone wrong since your makeover.

Ah, no answer again.

There is one question I am dying to ask you in particular but I'm saving that for a rainy day.

Anyway, be a dear and answer any of my questions. If you can, of course. Although i'm starting to think you can't.

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dispite of these rises i still believe prices will drop to 1999 levels, and stablise at the price levels it was at in 2000

This is a very big bubble and very serious finantial crisis worse than the world has ever seen before

I can't see any justification for prices falling that far or anything like, at the very outside my feeling is that including inflation we'll see 30%, maybe 35% at a push... as for stability in prices post the fall, we've never had real stability before and I suspect the further prices fall the less likely we are to have any kind of stability going forwards... falling to 1999 levels would turn yields on the best central london flats to something like 7.5%-10% which would be truly extraordinary. As it is I reckon when prices do (in the mainstream) work their way back to 2003/2004 then thats going to be something like the bottom for a lot of locations and a lot of different housing types... many will of course have fallen by 60%/70% in some areas and for some housing types within the overall numbers... we may even see our first 90% drop ... perhaps some of the very overpriced stuff around canary wharf might go there if theres a sudden glut and some auctions with no reserves.

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The housing market is holed beneath the waterline.

The V shaped recovery idea is a joke.

People selling their houses last month still did so at an avergage of 16 percent less than they could have got last year. So why didn't they just wait for the recovereh ? All those accidental landlords want to sell their house at 2007 prices, yet there just aren't going to be enough FTBers with enough of a deposit to buy them all.

Do any posters know of people about to take advantage of the 'low prices' and buy, what kind of finance they are going to use? I read a post of someone who said he knew three people with help from Mummy and Daddy who were intending to buy. If they buy on a tracker, they could soon be as stuffed as people buying in 2007.

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I signed on at the jobcentre again today.

I asked about the news reports that the Government was hiring 10,000 extra staff to cope with the surge in claimants.

I was told the extra staff had been recruited in February on 2 YEAR temporary contracts.

They know the truth.

It's going to get very bad.

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Guest KingCharles1st
Convinced they have further to fall. It is unsustainable in terms of civil 'rest' - to have two neighbours side by side. One paying a low easy mortgage whislt t'other has a huge one and can't afford holidays, clothes, change car etc.

Exactly Jess.

This is no longer about house prices, this is about quality of life, and being fu cked over good and proper, by a lot of irresponsible supposedly responsible people having their leg lifted in the name of "good" government.

The country cannot continue without a huge financial reset, everybody knows it except the stupid wa nkers about to go out and buy a hugely overpriced poorly made box with a few windows (and a lifetime of debt with a shit lifestyle included in the super irresistible package.)

Edited by KingCharles1st

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Only hope they are still around when TSHTF.

You mean a year and a half ago when the worlds financial system collapsed and the steepest sustained housing crash in history kicked off.

**** em'. They may think they can forget their previous comedy kicking, but we won't.

Edited by geneer

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Now what would rattle me would be a Bull providing a meaningful answer to ANY of my questions to them.

Yes, when I read that reply, with proper economic evidence, in passable English, without a smiley icon, that's when I think of turning.

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There is one question I am dying to ask you in particular but I'm saving that for a rainy day.

How much rainier can it get than +2.6%. :D

Have we got a folder each?

Questions for Rinoa, questions for Hamish......

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