LuckyOne Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 Keep the faith. The bear market rally is almost over. Dr Bubb was right about the event. The market expects it to be over soon. Many will look back with longing at the March to June period as the last good opportunity to sell risky assets from shares to houses. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/persona...o-continue.html When the investment bank asked experts what they expected the trajectory of the global economy to be this year and next, 37.5pc predicted a W-shape – temporary recovery, before renewed weakness – and 31.5pc a U-shape, representing weak growth for some time before gradual recovery. Another 26.5pc favoured the L-shape: growth remaining weak for a protracted period. Just 4.5pc opted for a V-shape – weakness and then sharp recovery – according to the survey of 605 professionals, who worked for a broad range of foreign exchange investors including hedge funds, real money managers, proprietary trading desks and corporates. The pessimism about the economy was reflected in experts' opinions about the recent rally in "risky assets" such as shares. Thirty-seven per cent said they thought we were in a bear market rally close to ending, while 23.5pc said it was a bear market rally with further to go, a bearish total of over 60pc; 22pc thought it sustainable but that further gains were unlikely, and 17.5pc said risky assets had further to rally. “The recent strong performance of risky assets is seen by investors as a ‘bear market rally’ that is close to ending,†the bank said. “This is consistent with the general view that any global economic recovery over the next year will be shallow or temporary – U or W-shaped.†Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jister1 Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 (edited) Keep the faith. The bear market rally is almost over. Dr Bubb was right about the event. The market expects it to be over soon. Many will look back with longing at the March to June period as the last good opportunity to sell risky assets from shares to houses. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/persona...o-continue.html Great....now toddle off and tell somone who cares....May I point you in the direction of Hamish Mctavish's informative thread ont his very board......very interesting...loved the 2.6% rise mom....check it out some wild and varied posters on that thread too. PS...how many of these Finance Professionals predicted the downturn in the 1st place......? Exactly...so what makes them all gurus and trusted now then.....? ah! .... yes... it's what you want to hear!!! Selective hearing or reading lol Edited June 4, 2009 by Jister1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashinmattress Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 Great....now toddle off and tell somone who cares....May I point you in the direction of Hamish Mctavish's informative thread ont his very board......very interesting...loved the 2.6% rise mom....check it out some wild and varied posters on that thread too. If you are going to ridicule, might I suggest you put up an argument up to back your position? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 (edited) Great....now toddle off and tell somone who cares....May I point you in the direction of Hamish Mctavish's informative thread ont his very board......very interesting...loved the 2.6% rise mom....check it out some wild and varied posters on that thread too. BUY BUY BUY....soemone is going to have to with all the Cash bonds being required bya couple of fairly major economies in the next 2 to three years, economies not much mentioned in the press, but perhaps I could point you with a clue....they both speak english and have more debt per capita between than most of the rest of the world combined. Edited June 4, 2009 by Bloo Loo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jister1 Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 If you are going to ridicule, might I suggest you put up an argument up to back your position? ah! ...ok ....Edited post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LuckyOne Posted June 4, 2009 Author Share Posted June 4, 2009 Great....now toddle off and tell somone who cares....May I point you in the direction of Hamish Mctavish's informative thread ont his very board......very interesting...loved the 2.6% rise mom....check it out some wild and varied posters on that thread too. PS...how many of these Finance Professionals predicted the downturn in the 1st place......? Exactly...so what makes them all gurus and trusted now then.....? ah! .... yes... it's what you want to hear!!! Selective hearing or reading lol It is a case of understanding the market's consensus opinion rather than reading what I want to hear. Markets move around their long term trend in ways that are sometimes puzzling and counterintuitive. My view is that risky asset prices are still in a long term bear market with a sharp, short term, counter-trend rally having happened in the last three months or so. Normal service will be resumed shortly as the fundamentals have not yet changed significantly enough to stop the rot. Markets are often herd animals. If enough professionals believe that it will move one way, that is often enough to be a self fulfilling prophesy for any given set of circumstances and can continue for very long periods of time until conditions become unsustainable. It is this herd mentality that drove up risky asset prices from around 2002 until 2007 until asset prices became way too expensive. This same herd mentality will drive down risky asset prices from 2007 to 2011/2012 until they become too cheap. I am more interested in understanding the market's consensus view relative to fundamental value because of what it tells me about the likely direction of prices rather than being interested in agreeing or disagreeing with them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jister1 Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 (edited) It is a case of understanding the market's consensus opinion rather than reading what I want to hear.Markets move around their long term trend in ways that are sometimes puzzling and counterintuitive. My view is that risky asset prices are still in a long term bear market with a sharp, short term, counter-trend rally having happened in the last three months or so. Normal service will be resumed shortly as the fundamentals have not yet changed significantly enough to stop the rot. Markets are often herd animals. If enough professionals believe that it will move one way, that is often enough to be a self fulfilling prophesy for any given set of circumstances and can continue for very long periods of time until conditions become unsustainable. It is this herd mentality that drove up risky asset prices from around 2002 until 2007 until asset prices became way too expensive. This same herd mentality will drive down risky asset prices from 2007 to 2011/2012 until they become too cheap. I am more interested in understanding the market's consensus view relative to fundamental value because of what it tells me about the likely direction of prices rather than being interested in agreeing or disagreeing with them. I was questioning the Finance Professionals who have contributed to this poll rather than youself....so...no problem with your own oppinion. You quite rightly point out the herd mentality and I go along with that...as it applies to the housing market and we see mom rises now appearing. an old saying that I often think about when I see Finance Professionals calling more doom n gloom is " when everyone else is panicking and running scared ....thats the time to buy" It kind off looks like thats what has happened with the HPI and that old saying has served me well with regards to stocks....RBS.....Lloyds and Johnston press. I wonder if the fear of missing the boat again will drive people into buying property...or will it be the low interest rates and better deals on offer...or even just the sentiment that things are on the up....all three together makes your every day joe (part of the herd) feel the need to make his move, especially when there are not to many bears around these days. Edited June 4, 2009 by Jister1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashinmattress Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 I was questioning the Finance Professionals who have contributed to this poll rather than youself....so...no problem with your own oppinion. You quite rightly point out the herd mentality and I go along with that...as it applies to the housing market and we see mom rises now appearing. an old saying that I often think about when I see Finance Professionals calling more doom n gloom is " when everyone else is panicking and running scared ....thats the time to buy" It kind off looks like thats what has happened with the HPI and that old saying has served me well with regards to stocks....RBS.....Lloyds and Johnston press. I wonder if the fear of missing the boat again will drive people into buying property...or will it be the low interest rates and better deals on offer...or even just the sentiment that things are on the up....all three together makes your every day joe (part of the herd) feel the need to make his move, especially when there are not to many bears around these days. Sorry boyo. This site is not the 'herd' and putting up some news snippets does not make for a revolution. Good to see that McSpamish is getting some of you attack dogs into his flock of HPI numpties. Might I suggest the lot of you go start your own website where you can talk up the market and glaze over the hard hitting numbers and facts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LuckyOne Posted June 4, 2009 Author Share Posted June 4, 2009 I was questioning the Finance Professionals who have contributed to this poll rather than youself....so...no problem with your own oppinion. You quite rightly point out the herd mentality and I go along with that...as it applies to the housing market and we see mom rises now appearing. an old saying that I often think about when I see Finance Professionals calling more doom n gloom is " when everyone else is panicking and running scared ....thats the time to buy" It kind off looks like thats what has happened with the HPI and that old saying has served me well with regards to stocks....RBS.....Lloyds and Johnston press. I wonder if the fear of missing the boat again will drive people into buying property...or will it be the low interest rates and better deals on offer...or even just the sentiment that things are on the up....all three together makes your every day joe (part of the herd) feel the need to make his move, especially when there are not to many bears around these days. To quote Dennis Gartman, you should be "buying when everyone is crying and selling when everyone is yelling". I don't think that the crying has even begun yet and the BarCap poll tells me that the professionals are still in a sour enough mood that they will put a cap on this bear market rally rather than signalling that we are at a turning point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jister1 Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 To quote Dennis Gartman, you should be "buying when everyone is crying and selling when everyone is yelling".I don't think that the crying has even begun yet and the BarCap poll tells me that the professionals are still in a sour enough mood that they will put a cap on this bear market rally rather than signalling that we are at a turning point. Well I consider how close RBS was from being dead...I was told for a period of time they were runing day to day and not sure what was happeneing. Media had them bankrupt and nationalised. I decided it was time to buy. Thats the point of my quote. The crying has begun and all in effirent sectors at different times..... the banks had their time and are now going about their bussines a bit more quietly.....the housing market has had 18 months of falls and is now starting to pick up....so mnay people have lots their homes and have been crying....lots have lots jobs and been crying..... I think we will be heading for a bit more stabillity by Novemeber.........next spring will be the start of the recovery. All imo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParticleMan Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 Pick a door, that wise old ape ?...! said, and go stand near it. The door I'm standing near is the one marked "exit". As in... ... well golly gee, we now have open interest (in this bear market) to sell to again. Good luck all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
symo Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 We are still heading for a depression in my opinion. It was good to hear Nu-Labors mouthpiece the BBC churnign out green shoots stories all morning. Makes whats coming in the next couple of months even better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LuckyOne Posted June 4, 2009 Author Share Posted June 4, 2009 Pick a door, that wise old ape ?...! said, and go stand near it.The door I'm standing near is the one marked "exit". As in... ... well golly gee, we now have open interest (in this bear market) to sell to again. Good luck all. I assume that the "advisors" referred to are those who advise retail investors. The negative correlation between sentiment and market direction is almost uncanny over the last year. I guess that you really can get rich by doing the opposite of what retail are advised to do. The professionals seem to confirm the signals coming from the advisors to the amateurs. Rich pickings from the looks of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParticleMan Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 (edited) Rich pickings from the looks of it. EDM would probably classify it as picking up pennies on the train track. But yes, it's been worth a few bob or two. Who was it on the forum that put their money where their mouth was back in March and bought June '09 calls again? Oh, that'd be me then. Edited June 4, 2009 by ParticleMan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LuckyOne Posted June 4, 2009 Author Share Posted June 4, 2009 EDM would probably classify it as picking up pennies on the train track.But yes, it's been worth a few bob or two. Who was it on the forum that put their money where their mouth was back in March and bought June '09 calls again? Oh, that'd be me then. Well done. Rolling over at least some of your profits into Dec09 850 S&P puts I assume? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParticleMan Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 Rolling over at least some of your profits into Dec09 850 S&P puts I assume? Yup. Wouldn't bet the house on it, but it's worth a punt. Just watch out for oncoming trains... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LuckyOne Posted June 4, 2009 Author Share Posted June 4, 2009 Yup.Wouldn't bet the house on it, but it's worth a punt. Just watch out for oncoming trains... Really low interest rates have reduced my risk taking massively. When rates were higher, I was prepared to risk 3 months interest per year on options trades (self constructed principal protected notes in essence) so that I could afford to be wrong. With such low rates, I am reluctant to take much risk to potential oncoming trains ...... It is a pity because this really does look like a bear market rally worth selling into, especially as retail have given us some liquidity to sell into ...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sun n sea Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 I read this story in the Telegraph and came to the conclusion that 95% of "finance professionals" hadn't got a f*ckin clue what was going to happen. These people couldn't even manage to accurately predict what was happening in their own industry- not a great advert for the credibility of "finance professionals". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParticleMan Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 With such low rates, I am reluctant to take much risk to potential oncoming trains ...... I've been staking my beer money while waiting for the Great Yield Clawback event horizon. It's all up-side; heads I get drunk enough to forget about the world for a bit, tails my liver survives another day. I haven't stopped drinking since Christmas (my colleagues are too polite to say anything yet); at this rate and however it works out, the one certainty is that I'll be spending Summer in the Priory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LuckyOne Posted June 4, 2009 Author Share Posted June 4, 2009 I read this story in the Telegraph and came to the conclusion that 95% of "finance professionals" hadn't got a f*ckin clue what was going to happen. These people couldn't even manage to accurately predict what was happening in their own industry- not a great advert for the credibility of "finance professionals". No-one actually knows with 100% certainty what is going to happen 100% of the time. If they did, they would be infinitely rich and certainly not sharing their views. To be a successful trader or investor, you only need to be right about 55% of the time as long as you manage your winners and losers with assymetrical and disciplined strategies. Times like these when markets move strongly in a direction contrary to professional opinion give us the chance to be on the right side of the 55%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParticleMan Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 (edited) Times like these when markets move strongly in a direction contrary to professional opinion give us the chance to be on the right side of the 55%. Speaking of gambling, here's another gift horse for you to peer into the mouth of... (I'm feeling generous today, it must be the weather... or perhaps the prospect of beer) edit: updated for clarity... mmm, claret-y... Edited June 4, 2009 by ParticleMan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LuckyOne Posted June 4, 2009 Author Share Posted June 4, 2009 Speaking of gambling, here's another gift horse for you to peer into the mouth of... (I'm feeling generous today, it must be the weather... or perhaps the prospect of beer) Bought in the low 1.40s and sold in the low 1.60s ...... Now back to my standard currency mix ...... Liked that gift horse ..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParticleMan Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 Liked that gift horse ..... Beer it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 EDM would probably classify it as picking up pennies on the train track.But yes, it's been worth a few bob or two. Who was it on the forum that put their money where their mouth was back in March and bought June '09 calls again? Oh, that'd be me then. Gloating doesn't become you PM. I'm shocked frankly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParticleMan Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 Gloating doesn't become you PM. I'm shocked frankly. Aww, can't a fella wallow in his dumb luck from time to time? Oh alright, I'll buy you all a brew, does that make up for it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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