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Halifax May Data Out 9am Today 4th June 2009

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I reckon this is the one where the bulls blow their load. It's going to be up and that'll put Nationwide and Halifax up in the same month.

It'll be monitor spoogearama.

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I'm expecting up and possibly quite a bit.

If it's a fall I think the spring bounce will fade quickly. If not, could plod along till end of summer.

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I'm expecting up and possibly quite a bit.

If it's a fall I think the spring bounce will fade quickly. If not, could plod along till end of summer.

Well, im a true bear. Im expecting -2.7%

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The Halifax and Nationwide are already far apart historically, if the Halifax doesn't rise it will make it hard to trust either.

Although the low volumes have been called as a reason for this by the Nationwide, prices rising only on this odd situation.

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Well, it's all a bit of a moot point, as I find it hard to believe the millions of unemployed and soon to be unemployed will find solace in a MoM increase or decrease in sales or asking prices.

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Because the Haliwide indices are currently based on such low numbers of approvals this could be almost anything in the range +2% to -2%.

Agree, but why did we get such steady drop for the last year (also on small volumes). For me there little doubt some kind

of bounce is taking place. The only question is how long before the next leg down?

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It only has significance if it is a big fall.

The trend is downwards and nothing has changed fundamentally. This index will keep falling. But there will be odd months with the occasional blip.

The Govt has thrown the kitchen sink at bringing recovereh to the housing market, but all they have done is delay the falls. they have not put a floor on prices, or increased the floor.

So, the crash will continue to happen. Its the speed of the crash / correction that we now monitor.

If it is a small fall or increase then Gordo continues to get his way.

If it is a fall of 2% or greater then ther figs may just strike a bit of fear into those who have chosen to wait for recovereh.

I reckon it will be an insignificant fall, -1.4% but crossing my fingers for -3.8%.

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The Halifax and Nationwide are already far apart historically, if the Halifax doesn't rise it will make it hard to trust either.

Although the low volumes have been called as a reason for this by the Nationwide, prices rising only on this odd situation.

I can't believe with volumes this low you have any real trust in either... directionally they may well reveal something over time but a month snapshot is going to be + or - 5% with volumes this low.

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Agree, but why did we get such steady drop for the last year (also on small volumes). For me there little doubt some kind

of bounce is taking place. The only question is how long before the next leg down?

Fair point. There is undoubtedly a 'spring bounce' at least in sentiment. The reality is that there is a shrinking pool of people with the ability to buy and once it has been exhausted the market will go into freefall.

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It only has significance if it is a big fall.

The trend is downwards and nothing has changed fundamentally. This index will keep falling. But there will be odd months with the occasional blip.

The trend is downwards but we must accept there could be some temporary stabilisation

Apparently there was 1990-1991 for over 12 months;

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/prope...rash-14794.aspx

After the first leg down in 1989, prices moved sideways for over a year, leading many to declare they had 'found a bottom'. In fact, this was a nasty bull trap

We might see something similar now, perhaps as the article says the next leg down might be triggered by increasing interest rates due to yields rising on government debt. There are 1000's of zombie borrowers out there right now, only clinging on because interest rates are so low. Maybe it will take rising interest rates to kick off the next leg down

Edited by munimula

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Hard to call so I will range between +0.5% and -0.5% MoM.

If it is positive it will be the alarm for the last hurrah before interest rates sky rocket.

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All this data is totally irrelevant anyway, because it averages out the different prices up and down the country. Absolutely meaningless. The only data worth monitoring are the asking prices in your local property rag.

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I'm expecting:

Everyone on here to treat the numbers like they come from god if they're negative, but to pour scorn on the veracity of them if they're positive.

:lol:

Sad, but true.

Although I agree it could be almost anything, if both indices are showing upwards, it's certainly good news. Even if only one or the other is up, theres still no doubt that a bounce of some description is happening, but we probably won't know the real amount til LR stats a few months from now due to the lag. Could be better than the indices, could be worse.

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All this data is totally irrelevant anyway, because it averages out the different prices up and down the country. Absolutely meaningless. The only data worth monitoring are the asking prices in your local property rag.

You're joking? If you're concerned about irrelevancy then asking prices are a far worse offender than the indices.

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All this data is totally irrelevant anyway, because it averages out the different prices up and down the country. Absolutely meaningless. The only data worth monitoring are the asking prices in your local property rag.

If you'd said localised LR data then you might have had a point, but asking prices - worth monitoring? :blink:

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