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grey shark

Halifax Figures For May

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Forexfactory calender says 3rd-5th.

thanx SU ........so by simple elimanation if today is the 3rd they must be out tommorow the 4th or Friday the 5th ;)

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I predict a small rise this month and possibly for the next two months as well. We are now in "the calm before the storm".

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable

I predict a deliberately misinterpreted small rise in the decrease of velocity of houseprice falls.

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I predict that if the figure is +ve, it will be dismissed as unreliable. However, if -ve it will be held up as a true and reliable representative of the market.

Seriously though, I'll fence sit a bit and say somewhere between -0.5 and +0.5.

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I agree the nominal rises will continue. It's all part of the crash cycle as we all know (well, apart from 'them').

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I predict they wil release some figures.

what they mean...I havent a clue... and neither do they....remember early 2008 they were releasing figures then, and they came to the conclusion that the market would remain level.

If THEY cant interpret their own figures....why do they bother?

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Traditionally HPC noticed that halifax release there figures to have maximum impact at the MPC in an attempt to get the MPC to lower interest rates...

If the figures are lower than expected they are released before the MPC meeting, if they are better than expected they tend to release them after the MPC :P

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I predict they wil release some figures.

I predict that unemployment will (considerably) rise as companies struggle to survive.

I predict that Interest rates will (eventually) rise as they must.

I predict that taxes will (hugely) rise to pay for the grotesque amount of debt the government is in.

I predict that bankruptcies will continue to rise.

I predict that BTL landlords will increasingly quit and sell up.

I predict that commercial property values will continue to fall.

I predict that domestic property values will continue (after the present Spring "bounce") to fall.

If I could be bothered, I would add this to my signature.

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I predict that unemployment will (considerably) rise as companies struggle to survive.

I predict that Interest rates will (eventually) rise as they must.

I predict that taxes will (hugely) rise to pay for the grotesque amount of debt the government is in.

I predict that bankruptcies will continue to rise.

I predict that BTL landlords will increasingly quit and sell up.

I predict that commercial property values will continue to fall.

I predict that domestic property values will continue (after the present Spring "bounce") to fall.

If I could be bothered, I would add this to my signature.

OK, and the bad news?

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Isn't it a bit rediculous though if Halifax do report a rise, considering last month (which the bulls have convieniently forgotton), they reported a whopping 1.7% fall. Doesn't it highlight that these stats are becoming extremely noisy because of very low volume? How much emphasis can we place on these individual figures now?

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How much emphasis can we place on these individual figures now?

None whatsoever, there is no such thing as an "average house". The trend is downwards, that's all you can say.

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I predict that if the figure is +ve, it will be dismissed as unreliable. However, if -ve it will be held up as a true and reliable representative of the market.

Seriously though, I'll fence sit a bit and say somewhere between -0.5 and +0.5.

Having read hpc I susopect the totally unbiased commentary on the HPI results will be exactly as you have forecast

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It could show a rise of +2% or more which is quit feasable, but I would guess at around +1.4%

Expect this is around the concensus?

Bloomberg is showing consensus expectations of -1.0% which seems strange given the disconnect between them and N'wide - I would think a positive number is more likely just to get them back together over the last few months.

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Figures out though not available for "offical" release yet.... heres what they say

0.98% up

Actually I made these up but based on the low volumes they are as likely to be relevant as the halifax figures.... these things are probably + or - 5% at the moment. In other words useless.

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Having read hpc I susopect the totally unbiased commentary on the HPI results will be exactly as you have forecast

With a name like economiccycle I'd have thought you'd be expecting a downward trend.

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I find it quite bizarre that there was a £13,000 difference between Halifax and Nationwide's figures and this is now down to just £700. Why the huge difference in these figures?

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