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Sybil13

Is Property Really Only Selling At 25 - 30% Off Peak?

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ONe I have seen come on LR figures

on for 122 and sold for 113. Must have been a cash buyer as no sane lender (imo) would have lent on it. illegal 3rd bedroom and dodgy extension, plus other works needed.

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Sybil - there are a lot of people out there who are happy to buy at 20% off peak. They think they have seen the worst of the falls and they think they are getting a good deal - compared to what has been available in the last few years. There aren't that many vendors who are prepared to sell at 20% off peak but there is so little that is priced realistically that those who price at this level can sel.

We all may think that at these levels prices still overvalued but there are FTBs who have been saving plus STR people with cash ready to buy.

IMO the majority of STR will have backed their decision with some research, not all but most IMO, they therefore would not be so stupid as buy into property now. Most FTB will not have the cash resources to buy, or to put up the required deposit IMO. The remaining daytime TV cannon fodder who would kill their Granny to get a chance at "The Ladder" will not be allowed any spending money from the banks again. They will have a dull ache in their brain as they try to work out what is happening. The Ladder is now "Jacobs Ladder", and it is going to be a mind******!

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Of course people who believed the hype are not just going to wake up one day and go "oh somebody on HPC.co.uk says we need to drop at least 30%, we had better go and do it" no, they are going to cling to their delusions until the bitter end, which will invole a repo, or never selling the house. If we are at correct price levels, why is the market on it`s ars*e? People are just getting used to the idea that the market has stalled, it will take them a while longer to get the fact that it is not going back up.

Exactly. Ive never suggested we are at the bottom of any crash but I dont see why people are complaining that sellers wont drop their price by 30% etc especially when interest rates are so low and there are no forced sellers.

Its going to months if not a couple of years before sellers accept that prices may not rise for some years

Edited by blakey74

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Exactly. Ive never suggested we are at the bottom of any crash but I dont see why people are complaining that sellers wont drop their price by 30% etc especially when interest rates are so low and there are no forced sellers.

Its going to months if not a couple of years before sellers accept that prices may not rise for some years

Agreed, but a bond market crisis, election, which the Tories win leading to interest rate raising and tightened fiscal policy etc etc is going to dispell the illusions quicker than if we trundle along in the Peter Pan fantasy that we are in?

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Average asking price = £227.4K Source Rightmove

Average selling price = £155K Source Halifax

Average discount = 31.8% of asking price

Is it because Nationwide and Halifax base their index's on the approval price not the valuation ? No that can't be right because the ?155000 is the figure they provide ......so what is going on ?

You are assuming that all of the ones they are trying to sell, sell ? A lot of overpriced property just doesn't sell in a falling market. That is not saying all properties are falling massively, or that some properties are not falling at all..... but I bet if you took a look at the properties on longest on RM, they will tend to be the stupidly priced ones.....

And if lots of smaller houses are selling at 95% of asking, but a couple of big ones just aren't selling at an inflated price, then it gives a large disparity, dependent on how you calculate the figures.

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Properties are not selling for 30% off peak in reality other than the odd repo or ex over inflated new build. How many people do you know who have bought at 30% off a realistic 2007 level I suspect its very few. Maybe in some really poor areas you maybe able to get 30% off off some really over inflated 1m+ house but the average house is not selling at anywhere near 30% off.

Maybe you should get out and view some properties and find out how many aare actually selling for 30% less than 2007 prices.

Of course people who believed the hype are not just going to wake up one day and go "oh somebody on HPC.co.uk says we need to drop at least 30%, we had better go and do it" no, they are going to cling to their delusions until the bitter end, which will invole a repo, or never selling the house. If we are at correct price levels, why is the market on it`s ars*e? People are just getting used to the idea that the market has stalled, it will take them a while longer to get the fact that it is not going back up.

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IMO the majority of STR will have backed their decision with some research, not all but most IMO, they therefore would not be so stupid as buy into property now. Most FTB will not have the cash resources to buy, or to put up the required deposit IMO. The remaining daytime TV cannon fodder who would kill their Granny to get a chance at "The Ladder" will not be allowed any spending money from the banks again. They will have a dull ache in their brain as they try to work out what is happening. The Ladder is now "Jacobs Ladder", and it is going to be a mind******!

Depends really. Alot of people who STR'd probably have familys some young. 20% fall will be good enough for these people in my opinion.

The properties I looked at a couple of months ago were all family homes and not really properties that would attract cash buyers looking at them as BTL investments.

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Reading through the replies not just on this thread but on others I am left wondering what people are supposed to do?

I have friends who would be more than happy to buy TODAY if they did not fear losing 30% + if they buy at 2007 minus just a little bit, especially when they have NOTHING to lose by waiting.

This is the point isn't it, its not just about having a VI in prices going up or down, its about what people are meant to do.

I am sure its the same for sellers, there are plenty of sellers who would and could afford to reduce if they knew property prices were not going back up to 2007 levels any time soon, and would prefer to sell this year with 30% off then next with 40%.

The point is people need to know what losses are likely whether they are buying or selling.

This is surely what people are saying with regards the sales at 30% off peak isn't it, that that is probably the minimum the market will fall but deals can be done around that level. However, for that to happen someone has to confirm for the sellers that 2007 prices are not going to be back by next year.

Perhaps the only answer is to wait until next year but sellers have the risk of losing even more, I can't see buyers run any risk at all by waiting.

However, the market just stagnating as it is currently doing is not really helping anyone is it? All the ramping in the world does not help a market in which few want to risk 30% + losses any more than the lenders want to take those risks either.

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Perhaps the only answer is to wait until next year but sellers have the risk of losing even more, I can't see buyers run any risk at all by waiting.

I'd agree buyers don't risk much by waiting til Q1 next year. Later than that could be a problem though.

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Of course, that 17% figure is before the current bounce. By the end of summer, it'll probably be more like 12% to 13% off peak. :lol:

And what about by the end of Winter when we have another 500,000+ on the dole?

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But isn't that the problem, that the ones that are not reducing are not selling? Have I chosen the only 50 + properties in Dorset that are just not selling? They are nice properties but NOTHING is selling.

So by your own logic, the ones that are selling, are the ones that are reduced. The land registry reports the prices of the houses that actually sold, not the ones that didn't. The land registry states that the current average price, for the houses that have actually sold (the discounted ones) is 17% off peak.

As for bank repo not being included, spunkonmattress helpfully provided those figures for us. 40,000 last year. LESS than 10% of the total sales. 75,000 was the previous estimate for this year, but they have admitted they'll now have to revise that figure downwards as it's too high, so maybe 20% this year if you're lucky, but more probably 15% or less.

So the average for the 80% to 90% of houses being sold normally (not through repo) is 17% off peak. If you want cheaper than that, go to a bank repo auction where you can sift through the cr@p.

Of course, that 17% figure is before the current bounce. By the end of summer, it'll probably be more like 12% to 13% off peak. :lol:

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I'd agree buyers don't risk much by waiting til Q1 next year. Later than that could be a problem though.

why? because house prices are going to shoot up after that???!?!? i'll take my chances.

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So are we ALL in agreement that NOTHING is selling at 25 - 30% off peak ONLY at 10 - 17% off peak and that RICS and RM and Hometrack etc who say that "property is ONLY selling at 25 - 30% off peak " are LYING? What is more are we ALL in agreement that when Hometrack says its only the "cash rich " that are buying and this is not sustainable, they too are lying? And when the survey of lenders last week said that they ALL expected further falls of 10% they too were lying.And when the BOE and CML say "the green shoots have no roots", they are lying too . In fact Rinoa has just said on another thread that EVERYONE I quote is a Muppet and only Hamish and herself have the facts.

Somedays its just all too exhausting ............roll on November.........

Edited by Sybil13

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So are we ALL in agreement that NOTHING is selling at 25 - 30% off peak ONLY at 10 - 17% off peak and that RICS and RM and Hometrack etc who say that "property is ONLY selling at 25 - 30% off peak " are LYING? What is more are we ALL in agreement that when Hometrack says its only the "cash rich " that are buying and this is not sustainable, they too are lying? And when the survey of lenders last week said that they ALL expected further falls of 10% they too were lying.And when the BOE and CML say "the green shoots have no roots", they are lying too . In fact Rinoa has just said on another thread that EVERYONE I quote is a Muppet and only Hamish and herself have the facts.

Somedays its just all too exhausting ............roll on November.........

Sybil I started a thread earlier about latest sales prices made available today.

Have a look at this link. The sale in April 09 is back to Jan 04 sale price.

http://www.nethouseprices.com/index.php?co...s_street_detail

At peak, 3 bed terraces on this street were comfortably selling in the £160-170k region.

April 09 the price achieved was £115k. Have a look at achieved prices around your way. You may find a big difference between asking and achieved.

The house that sold in April for £115k is almost identical to a house further down the road that is currently on for £165k!

My suggestion is not to 2nd guess what properties will sell for but to get some hard facts.

Edited by Nick Dastardly

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So are we ALL in agreement that NOTHING is selling at 25 - 30% off peak ONLY at 10 - 17% off peak and that RICS and RM and Hometrack etc who say that "property is ONLY selling at 25 - 30% off peak " are LYING? What is more are we ALL in agreement that when Hometrack says its only the "cash rich " that are buying and this is not sustainable, they too are lying? And when the survey of lenders last week said that they ALL expected further falls of 10% they too were lying.And when the BOE and CML say "the green shoots have no roots", they are lying too . In fact Rinoa has just said on another thread that EVERYONE I quote is a Muppet and only Hamish and herself have the facts.

Somedays its just all too exhausting ............roll on November.........

Now now Sybil, calm down, have a nice cup of tea or something. :lol:

Land Registry is an average. There are significant differences between area and property type. A flat in an inner city with too many flats may have fallen 40%. A nice house in an area thats sought after, catchment for good school, etc, may have fallen only 10%. But most houses are probably selling for between 15% and 20% off peak. So the average is 17%.

As prices are currently rising, this figure will increase, by the end of summer maybe 12% or 13%, probably 15% already given the bounce and the fact the LR stats lag by several months.

There are VI's everywhere. On this board the bears have a VI. The bulls have a VI. And all the people you quote at various times, most of them also have a VI. Property industry economists issue bleak forecasts to stimulate government intervention. "The lovely Merryn" issues doom laden forecasts to stand out from the crowd and get invited on TV shows. The Daily Express prints Bull-ish headlines to sell papers.

EVERYBODY has an agenda.

You like to pick quotes that support yours. Fair enough, most posters do that, but the thing is, we all know that we all do it. So repeatedly posting the same excessively long quotes just looks a bit, well, obsessive.

There is no agreement on the issues you discuss. You cannot say the concensus of opinion is one way or the other. At the moment, many commentators are calling the bottom of the market. Many more are saying it's not there yet but we're close. And some are still sticking to their guns with the doom and gloom.

We'll see soon enough who's right. And all the posting in the world, on here or anywhere else, isn't going to make a blind bit of difference.

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Now now Sybil, calm down, have a nice cup of tea or something. :lol:

Land Registry is an average. There are significant differences between area and property type. A flat in an inner city with too many flats may have fallen 40%. A nice house in an area thats sought after, catchment for good school, etc, may have fallen only 10%. But most houses are probably selling for between 15% and 20% off peak. So the average is 17%.

As prices are currently rising, this figure will increase, by the end of summer maybe 12% or 13%, probably 15% already given the bounce and the fact the LR stats lag by several months.

There are VI's everywhere. On this board the bears have a VI. The bulls have a VI. And all the people you quote at various times, most of them also have a VI. Property industry economists issue bleak forecasts to stimulate government intervention. "The lovely Merryn" issues doom laden forecasts to stand out from the crowd and get invited on TV shows. The Daily Express prints Bull-ish headlines to sell papers.

EVERYBODY has an agenda.

You like to pick quotes that support yours. Fair enough, most posters do that, but the thing is, we all know that we all do it. So repeatedly posting the same excessively long quotes just looks a bit, well, obsessive.

There is no agreement on the issues you discuss. You cannot say the concensus of opinion is one way or the other. At the moment, many commentators are calling the bottom of the market. Many more are saying it's not there yet but we're close. And some are still sticking to their guns with the doom and gloom.

We'll see soon enough who's right. And all the posting in the world, on here or anywhere else, isn't going to make a blind bit of difference.

Can we agree that unless risk is sold on in a similar fashion to 2007, we are never going to see a bubble such as this again? Can we agree that the banks are not going to make the same f*ck up and get bailed out again? Do we agree that there is no need for long rambling posts (like yours) it can all be summed up in a few sentences, words even, or even one word,.... OVER.

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So by your own logic, the ones that are selling, are the ones that are reduced. The land registry reports the prices of the houses that actually sold, not the ones that didn't. The land registry states that the current average price, for the houses that have actually sold (the discounted ones) is 17% off peak.

As for bank repo not being included, spunkonmattress helpfully provided those figures for us. 40,000 last year. LESS than 10% of the total sales. 75,000 was the previous estimate for this year, but they have admitted they'll now have to revise that figure downwards as it's too high, so maybe 20% this year if you're lucky, but more probably 15% or less.

So the average for the 80% to 90% of houses being sold normally (not through repo) is 17% off peak. If you want cheaper than that, go to a bank repo auction where you can sift through the cr@p.

Of course, that 17% figure is before the current bounce. By the end of summer, it'll probably be more like 12% to 13% off peak. :lol:

You know when Brown goes QE goes? You know that don`t you Hamish?

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Do you know I may as well just give up, Hamish just being marginally nice to me has me in tears today, there is just no hope for me really, just can't stop crying. I hate all this bear and bull stuff. I find this website so difficult, I am sure so many must be like me, struggling to understand what is going on and failing to understand some of the in depth stuff but finding it easier to understand some of the facts etc I copy and paste , so I copy and paste in the hope that it will help others like myself that find it hard to understand the more complex stuff. Then its really hard when Rinoa says everything I quote is wrong and that only McTavish and herself are correct. I know the people I quote are not muppets which is what Rinoa has said today, I am sure the people I quote have something worthwhile to say but today just too exhausted, I know that the news I have been reading the past few days did not sound very bullish but its hard when its being undermined all the time by the bulls. And I know if I am having such a hard time to work out what is true and what isn't then so must so many others whether have found their way onto HPC or not.

I will have to consider if its worth continuing trying to make my bear of little brain contribution for those that find the Spline (?)stuff etc too complex to understand or whether it is time for me to step back and leave Rinoa and McTavish to keep all those bears of little brains informed.

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I will have to consider if its worth continuing trying to make my bear of little brain contribution for those that find the Spline (?)stuff etc too complex to understand or whether it is time for me to step back and leave Rinoa and McTavish to keep all those bears of little brains informed.

I think you need to ask yourself how many of the Bulls have a vested interest in prices rising again and why. How many bought property at or around the peak. How many work as EAs. etc. etc.

You also have to remind yourself that by all measures, house prices are still well above the long term average and those Bulls are looking for prices to move further away from that average, and not back towards it.

You could also think that there are over 1m more BTL mortgages in existence than when Labour came to power. (Apparently this is the Tories fault). Think of the impact that these had on the price of property.

Think that the many of the types of lender that loaned money to buy BTLs have now gone out of business as the model they used was false and unsustainable.

I could go on if you want.......................

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Do you know I may as well just give up, Hamish just being marginally nice to me has me in tears today, there is just no hope for me really, just can't stop crying. I hate all this bear and bull stuff. I find this website so difficult, I am sure so many must be like me, struggling to understand what is going on and failing to understand some of the in depth stuff but finding it easier to understand some of the facts etc I copy and paste , so I copy and paste in the hope that it will help others like myself that find it hard to understand the more complex stuff. Then its really hard when Rinoa says everything I quote is wrong and that only McTavish and herself are correct. I know the people I quote are not muppets which is what Rinoa has said today, I am sure the people I quote have something worthwhile to say but today just too exhausted, I know that the news I have been reading the past few days did not sound very bullish but its hard when its being undermined all the time by the bulls. And I know if I am having such a hard time to work out what is true and what isn't then so must so many others whether have found their way onto HPC or not.

I will have to consider if its worth continuing trying to make my bear of little brain contribution for those that find the Spline (?)stuff etc too complex to understand or whether it is time for me to step back and leave Rinoa and McTavish to keep all those bears of little brains informed.

Nobody knows everything Sybil. I don't and I'm sure Hamish would say the same.

It just takes time to get your head round all the data and interpret it correctly.

And even the so-called 'experts' in the media will have differing views.

If it's any consolation, I only understand about 10% of what Spline posts. :(

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But isn't that the problem, that the ones that are not reducing are not selling? Have I chosen the only 50 + properties in Dorset that are just not selling? They are nice properties but NOTHING is selling.

I also live in Dorset.

I also note that almost nowt is shifting.

One came on at 248k, quite a nice house.

Reduced to 207K & went straight away. (2004 prices)

None of the houses we have veiwed have sold.

We tried to view a 4 bed detatched at 220K, it went straight away, 2003 price.

Biggest drop in asking price of the ones I'm looking at is 310k-228k, (27%) its been on for 18months, problem is the 207k one was a better shout.

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