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Sybil13

Is Property Really Only Selling At 25 - 30% Off Peak?

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Land Registry will give you a factual picture, not based on surveys, but based on actual sold prices of all properties sold through the conventional market. (excluding auctions, but these are still only a tiny percentage of total sales)

Land Registry does tend to lag by several months though, so HaliWide are a better up-to-date snapshot.

Land Registry figures confirm that prices have not fallen anywhere near 30%. Rinoa is correct. The facts do not support your assertion.

So OH WISE ONE why do you think that the EA quoted on the Hometrack Report said that all their offices confirm 25 - 30% from peak?

Why would Miles Shipside have been saying since January 2009 sellers need to reduce 25 - 30% , Savills said the same, they said in February / March that deals were being done at 30% and if sellers would reduce the market might be contained at 30% and not fall any further.

Why do RM's asking and Halifax and Nationwide stats seem to confirm 31% falls from ASKING to SELLING?

Why do you think we hear over and over that lenders are valuing 30% below peak, higher for remortgage and chains are breaking down every day? Why do you think RICS said in March they thought there had already been 30% falls?

IS EVERYONE LYING?

Is that why you think I have this so wrong, because I am believing lies instead of you ?

So PLEASE explain why property that is selling seems to be selling at 25 - 30% off peak but the stats do not support that?

Sellers Need to Reduce their Prices

Estate agents report many buyers basing asking prices on what they think their home was worth at the peak of the market in late 2007 – minus a little bit. It may be a bitter pill to swallow but this is unrealistic. The Nationwide house price index shows prices down 20% since then and buyers will be expecting a further 5% to 10% off that

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Rinoa's response to there having already been 30% falls , or rather property selling at 30% off peak is that there are no stats to support that view, and he /she is right so are there no stats

Sybil, you have to remember that RICS and Rightmove have vested interests of their own.

RICS members are estate agents and Rightmove rely on estate agents for their revenues.

It is more important for both organisations that houses sell in volume, rather than high prices be attained.

Anyone suggesting pricing their property at a 30% discount to peak is not speaking in a 'moment of honesty' as you suggest, they are promoting their own self interests.

Edited by Rinoa

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IS EVERYONE LYING?

Some do here.

McSpamish has been repeatedly been caught using dodgy, manipulated and skewed statistics. Using his line of reasoning, we could safely assume cats are dogs and the earth is only 1000 years old. He won't publically state his agenda to the forum and insists on ruining the spirit of the site by hijacking threads which indicate positive news to the potential and future house buying majority of site visitors. Don't forget he threadbombs anything which proves him wrong, and ignores any threads which successfully challenge his position. He's just a miserable git, a menace, and a Judas.

Same goes for Rinoa.

Sibley is just the village idiot whos unfortunatly figured out how to access the internet.

Ignore function works nicely.

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Rinoa's response to there having already been 30% falls , or rather property selling at 30% off peak is that there are no stats to support that view, and he /she is right so are there no stats because as RICS said during a moment of honesty in March 2009 , "Nationwide and Halifax are underestimating scals of peak -to - trough falls to date"? :

Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors

Most of the house price indices suggest prices have fallen by up to 20pc from the peak. However, many of our members [surveyors and estate agents] cast doubt on this and calculate independently that the scale of price falls has been even greater − 30pc or more already. They suspect the Nationwide and Halifax figures are underestimating scale of the peak-to-trough fall to date.

Looking at the surveys you have to come to the conclusion that we aren't at the bottom by any stretch yet. Our members are still expecting further falls in prices, according to our survey, and if there's anyone you might expect to be talking up the market it is them

According to Rightmove's Director, Miles Shipside any increase in their Index is "more bad news than good", he has been speaking of the need for sellers to reduce 25 - 30% since the beginning of the year and that :

The report admits that agent's are being forced to up initial advertising prices to win new instructions, amid the fierce competition for the few quality properties that are currently being put onto the market.

That makes the asking price rise, for me, more like bad news than good news. I understand that agent's are trying to survive in a difficult market, but we need to firm out the price drops that we have had, before we can ascertain if they are enough to bring the market to bottom, and accelerate any further drop that may be necessary

In short, by humouring unrealistic vendors over asking prices, agents may be doing nothing more than prolonging their own misery.

The report also said that lack of mortgage availability is hindering market recovery as sellers who have dealt with the market reality and drastically dropped their asking price are faced with buyers unable to obtain finance. Rightmove commercial director Miles Shipside said:

"Some sellers are still pricing wishfully high, though it is encouraging that elements of the market have adapted relatively quickly to find a new price floor at a discount of around 25% from peak. "

"Until banks get their own houses in order, the active minority of sellers and agents who have drastically adjusted pricing will remain frustrated by the limited functioning of the financial services sector."

So, after its initial optimism the Rightmove index enforces the realisation that the UK property market recovery hinges on two things: vendor realism and mortgage availability. The latter more than likely hinged on a recovery to the wider UK economy, which in my opinion is also necessary to increase buyer numbers sufficiently to bring vendor realism

So even sellers who DRASTICALLY reduce their prices find that buyers cannot get finance.

Certainly the average ASKING and average SELLING price seems to confirm the 30% so why don't the stats?

Average asking price = £227.4K Source Rightmove

Average selling price = £155K Source Halifax

Average discount = 31.8% of asking price

Is it because Nationwide and Halifax base their index's on the approval price not the valuation ? No that can't be right because the £155000 is the figure they provide ......so what is going on ?

With regards the Hometrack report this week I read this:

The difficulty with the Halifax and Nationwide indices is that they are averages and cover the whole country,’ says Dominic Agace of estate agent, Winkworth. ‘But having said that if you talk to any of our offices they would tell you that prices are off anything up to 25% to 30% compared with the peak.’

So it would seem that 25 - 30% is what property is selling for, and why I assume the 50 + properties I have been keeping an eye on on RM in the £200000 to £250000 range still at 2007 values are not selling. I assume there are 2 kinds of properties on the market currently those whose owners only want 2007 values and those that are willing to sell at 2009 levels before they have to sell at 2010 levels which must be at between 35 - 40% by January 2010 surely. The recent survey of lenders said that on average they expected at least 10% further falls.

When the BOE and CML rightly say that the "green shoots have no roots" there really is only one way to go isn't there .

Did you see the deposits etc figures from the BOE yesterday? I read this yesterday seems to sum it up nicely:

The mainstream media will generate plenty of opinion today suggesting a 'bottom' of sorts has been reached by the housing market. With transaction numbers at lows not seen since the seventies and mortgage lending 60% down year on year this would be a premature assumption when mortgage lending and sales transactions suggest an undeniable fact; the housing market is in fact dead...

So if property is really selling at 30% off peak and is not likely to go up for a long long time isn't it time someone told the sellers who are just sitting there with property still at 2007 levels? And when the index shows an UP what are they up on if the figures seem to confirm they are selling at 30% below asking?

Edited by Sybil13

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"Nationwide and Halifax are underestimating scals of peak -to - trough falls to date"? :

Land Registry will give you a factual picture, not based on surveys, but based on actual sold prices of all properties sold through the conventional market. (excluding auctions, but these are still only a tiny percentage of total sales)

Land Registry does tend to lag by several months though, so HaliWide are a better up-to-date snapshot.

Land Registry figures confirm that prices have not fallen anywhere near 30%. Rinoa is correct. The facts do not support your assertion.

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Land Registry will give you a factual picture, not based on surveys, but based on actual sold prices of all properties sold through the conventional market. (excluding auctions, but these are still only a tiny percentage of total sales)

Land Registry does tend to lag by several months though, so HaliWide are a better up-to-date snapshot.

Land Registry figures confirm that prices have not fallen anywhere near 30%. Rinoa is correct. The facts do not support your assertion.

The LR shown no auctions, no repo's, no new builds, so basically it's missing out most of the sales that are distressed, which would be quite a significant part of the low sales volume at this time, hence their relatively low falls in percentage terms. If these figures were included, we would indeed be seeing something close to 30% at this time, or perhaps a little more.

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Rinoa's response to there having already been 30% falls , or rather property selling at 30% off peak is that there are no stats to support that view, and he /she is right so are there no stats because as RICS said during a moment of honesty in March 2009 , "Nationwide and Halifax are underestimating scals of peak -to - trough falls to date"? :

According to Rightmove's Director, Miles Shipside any increase in their Index is "more bad news than good", he has been speaking of the need for sellers to reduce 25 - 30% since the beginning of the year and that :

So even sellers who DRASTICALLY reduce their prices find that buyers cannot get finance.

Certainly the average ASKING and average SELLING price seems to confirm the 30% so why don't the stats?

Average asking price = £227.4K Source Rightmove

Average selling price = £155K Source Halifax

Average discount = 31.8% of asking price

Is it because Nationwide and Halifax base their index's on the approval price not the valuation ? No that can't be right because the ?155000 is the figure they provide ......so what is going on ?

With regards the Hometrack report this week I read this:

So it would seem that 25 - 30% is what property is selling for, and why I assume the 50 + properties I have been keeping an eye on on RM in the £200000 to £250000 range still at 2007 values are not selling. I assume there are 2 kinds of properties on the market currently those whose owners only want 2007 values and those that are willing to sell at 2009 levels before they have to sell at 2010 levels which must be at between 35 - 40% by January 2010 surely. The recent survey of lenders said that on average they expected at least 10% further falls.

When the BOE and CML rightly say that the "green shoots have no roots" there really is only one way to go isn't there .

Did you see the deposits etc figures from the BOE yesterday? I read this yesterday seems to sum it up nicely:

So if property is really selling at 30% off peak and is not likely to go up for a long long time isn't it time someone told the sellers who are just sitting there with property still at 2007 levels? And when the index shows an UP what are they up on if the figures seem to confirm they are selling at 30% below asking?

Properties are not selling for 30% off peak in reality other than the odd repo or ex over inflated new build. How many people do you know who have bought at 30% off a realistic 2007 level I suspect its very few. Maybe in some really poor areas you maybe able to get 30% off off some really over inflated 1m+ house but the average house is not selling at anywhere near 30% off.

Maybe you should get out and view some properties and find out how many aare actually selling for 30% less than 2007 prices.

Edited by blakey74

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So OH WISE ONE why do you think that the EA quoted on the Hometrack Report said that all their offices confirm 25 - 30% from peak?

Why would Miles Shipside have been saying since January 2009 sellers need to reduce 25 - 30% , Savills said the same, they said in February / March that deals were being done at 30% and if sellers would reduce the market might be contained at 30% and not fall any further.

Why do RM's asking and Halifax and Nationwide stats seem to confirm 31% falls from ASKING to SELLING?

Why do you think we hear over and over that lenders are valuing 30% below peak, higher for remortgage and chains are breaking down every day? Why do you think RICS said in March they thought there had already been 30% falls?

IS EVERYONE LYING?

Is that why you think I have this so wrong, because I am believing lies instead of you ?

So PLEASE explain why property that is selling seems to be selling at 25 - 30% off peak but the stats do not support that?

Sellers Need to Reduce their Prices

Because they are not! You are still using different index and arriving and figures to support what you want to think.

Read this thread and you may start to understand what is actually going on in the real world at the moment.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...howtopic=114723

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Some do here.

McSpamish has been repeatedly been caught using dodgy, manipulated and skewed statistics. Using his line of reasoning, we could safely assume cats are dogs and the earth is only 1000 years old. He won't publically state his agenda to the forum and insists on ruining the spirit of the site by hijacking threads which indicate positive news to the potential and future house buying majority of site visitors. Don't forget he threadbombs anything which proves him wrong, and ignores any threads which successfully challenge his position. He's just a miserable git, a menace, and a Judas.

Same goes for Rinoa.

Sibley is just the village idiot whos unfortunatly figured out how to access the internet.

Ignore function works nicely.

'Sibley is just the village idiot whos unfortunatly figured out how to access the internet'.

You made me ruin a perfectly good pair of shorts when I involuntary spat my coffee out having read this line, I'm still cracking up now! I've got tears running down my face, it's just so funny!

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Because they are not! You are still using different index and arriving and figures to support what you want to think.

Read this thread and you may start to understand what is actually going on in the real world at the moment.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...howtopic=114723

The real world is in first stage of a depression. Maybe you should take off your rose coloured eyeglasses.

And maybe you should understand that property is worth LESS than it was two years ago, and will continue to be so for a long time. People selling want high prices, people buying don't. A medium will be met, but we are a long way off.

Credit is severely restriced, the economy is on life support, and the ranks of unemployment are growing at Thatcher-esque numbers.

Any of you with kids will not want to see them paying ridiculous, back breaking and soul destroyng sums to set up their first family home. Get real.

Edited by cashinmattress

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Re Land Registry:

Yes they do include auction sales UNLESS THEY'RE REPOS.

They don't include repos whether they're sold at auction or any other way.

This was debated at great length some months back, with some pretty conclusive links, but I don't have time to dig out the thread.

However, exclusion of repos and newbuilds is problematic when, as stated above, these are likely to show the biggest fall.

Sadly there is no perfect index.

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The real world is in first stage of a depression. Maybe you should take off your rose coloured eyeglasses.

And maybe you should understand that property is worth LESS than it was two years ago, and will continue to be so for a long time. People selling want high prices, people buying don't. A medium will be met, but we are a long way off.

Credit is severely restriced, the economy is on life support, and the ranks of unemployment are growing at Thatcher-esque numbers.

Any of you with kids will not want to see them paying ridiculous, back breaking and soul destroyng sums to set up their first family home. Get real.

I'm not saying that house prices wont fall by 50% in the future but its not happening now and you are allowing the OP to look stupid by suggesting that property is 30% off peak at the moment. It maybe in 6 months time but its not now.

If you are suggesting it is then I await the evidence.

I'd be more than happy to consider buying at 30% off peak in my area but its not happening at the moment and I now doubt its unlikely to happen before the end of the year.

The reality is there are too many people who belived that once prices started to fall they would be able to turn up at the ea's with offers at 30-40% off 2007 prices and sellers were going to say yes please. It was never going to happen like that. The crash will take years and I suspect it could be another 2 years before some areas see 30%+ falls.

Edited by blakey74

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Re Land Registry:

Yes they do include auction sales UNLESS THEY'RE REPOS.

They don't include repos whether they're sold at auction or any other way.

This was debated at great length some months back, with some pretty conclusive links, but I don't have time to dig out the thread.

However, exclusion of repos and newbuilds is problematic when, as stated above, these are likely to show the biggest fall.

Sadly there is no perfect index.

Well, there were 40000+ repossessions in 2008 and will be 75000 forecast for 2009. The numbers will be higher the year next. They are big numbers and would paint a less than rosy picture within most of the housing market statistics.

Leaving these out does skew all indices, so take them all with a grain of salt.

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Land Registry will give you a factual picture, not based on surveys, but based on actual sold prices of all properties sold through the conventional market. (excluding auctions, but these are still only a tiny percentage of total sales)

Land Registry does tend to lag by several months though, so HaliWide are a better up-to-date snapshot.

Land Registry figures confirm that prices have not fallen anywhere near 30%. Rinoa is correct. The facts do not support your assertion.

The assertion comes from Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors.

I have no idea if he is spinning or not but the quote says he made this assertion, not Sybil.

The reason sales are so low Rinoa is that people are asking for unrealistic prices. To get back to a normal level of transactions people need to drop their price by around 25% from peak. You are clinging to the belief that the highest price ever quote is the correct price. It isn't. The correct price is what will sell at the moment i.e. 25% below peak. Until you accept that you are just putting your life on hold.

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Properties are not selling for 30% off peak in reality other than the odd repo or ex over inflated new build. How many people do you know who have bought at 30% off a realistic 2007 level I suspect its very few. Maybe in some really poor areas you maybe able to get 30% off off some really over inflated 1m+ house but the average house is not selling at anywhere near 30% off.

Maybe you should get out and view some properties and find out how many aare actually selling for 30% less than 2007 prices.

But isn't that the problem, that the ones that are not reducing are not selling? Have I chosen the only 50 + properties in Dorset that are just not selling? They are nice properties but NOTHING is selling.

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Because they are not! You are still using different index and arriving and figures to support what you want to think.

Read this thread and you may start to understand what is actually going on in the real world at the moment.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...howtopic=114723

OK I understand you can't take figures from Halifax and apply it to Nationwide but RM do not have an index for SELLING price only ASKING so is there anything wrong in comparing RM's average asking to Nationwide / Halifax average SELLING one assumes the properties off RM end up being the AVERAGE properties on these two indexes?

And to be honest it not a Q of finding figures to support WHAT I WANT TO THINK it is a Q of trying to get to the FACTS so that I know what to think .

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The assertion comes from Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors.

I have no idea if he is spinning or not but the quote says he made this assertion, not Sybil.

The reason sales are so low Rinoa is that people are asking for unrealistic prices. To get back to a normal level of transactions people need to drop their price by around 25% from peak. You are clinging to the belief that the highest price ever quote is the correct price. It isn't. The correct price is what will sell at the moment i.e. 25% below peak. Until you accept that you are just putting your life on hold.

This whole VI thing is interesting isn't it , that Rinoa and McTavish seem to think that people that are confirming 30% falls have a VI in the market moving, but can that honestly be seen as a VI?

Is it a VI to get the market to a level that is sustainable and allows it to function albeit at lower levels than 2007?

The BOE official who warned Darling "Not to Stop the Housing Crash" said:

In testimony to the Treasury Committee, Mr Fisher said: ‘I think the most important thing for the housing market is that prices should be allowed to adjust to a level at which people can afford to buy houses.’

In recent years potential buyers were unable to get onto the property market because ‘houses were just so expensive,’ he went on.

‘We have to allow the housing market to find a new level at which people can afford to enter it.’

Britain has seen one of the deepest property slumps of any advanced nation since the onset of the credit crunch.

Prices have tumbled by 21 per cent from their peaks, compared with an average 10 per cent decline in major economies, according to International Monetary Fund figures. ......

There is a danger that policy intervention in the housing market stops these sorts adjustments from happening.

‘We have to be very careful with policy intervention that we don’t actually make it worse.’

Property prices are still 40 per cent above their historic averages, suggesting further declines are unavoidable, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said earlier this month.

Analyst Vicky Redwood of Capital Economics said: ‘The housing market correction has to happen and we may as well get it over with sooner rather than later.

‘It is obviously in the government’s interests to try to delay any adjustment in house prices and get them to fall at a slower pace for political reasons.’

Treasury Committee chairman John McFall said: ‘Policy interventions have to accept there has to be a floor in the market. There can be no artificial stimulus.’

......

His VI interest? Getting the market to affordable and sustainable levels? But can that be considered a VI? Or simply plain common sense?

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Sybil - there are a lot of people out there who are happy to buy at 20% off peak. They think they have seen the worst of the falls and they think they are getting a good deal - compared to what has been available in the last few years. There aren't that many vendors who are prepared to sell at 20% off peak but there is so little that is priced realistically that those who price at this level can sel.

We all may think that at these levels prices still overvalued but there are FTBs who have been saving plus STR people with cash ready to buy.

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To add my tuppence:

We have been looking into buying a house over recent months. (Very strong position, 40-60% deposit depending upon what we want, no chain.)

There are very very few properties for sale with our criteria.

Of this handful of properties, half are forced sales (divorce).

Houses are selling STC, and often within a short period of time.

But some are returning back to the market after the sales fell through.

Vendors seem to be reluctant to reduce prices. We have a divorcing couple who have offered to sell to us at 5% below asking price, overall about 20% below peak.

My opinion is that this is a shake out of many cash-rich buyers chasing a small number of properties.

These are people with large deposits getting very good fixed rate mortgages. These deals won't be around forever.

I don't think this bounce can go on much longer as this supply of cash-rich buyers is quite small.

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To add my tuppence:

We have been looking into buying a house over recent months. (Very strong position, 40-60% deposit depending upon what we want, no chain.)

There are very very few properties for sale with our criteria.

Of this handful of properties, half are forced sales (divorce).

Houses are selling STC, and often within a short period of time.

But some are returning back to the market after the sales fell through.

Vendors seem to be reluctant to reduce prices. We have a divorcing couple who have offered to sell to us at 5% below asking price, overall about 20% below peak.

My opinion is that this is a shake out of many cash-rich buyers chasing a small number of properties.

These are people with large deposits getting very good fixed rate mortgages. These deals won't be around forever.

I don't think this bounce can go on much longer as this supply of cash-rich buyers is quite small.

Hometrack said pretty much the same thing this week:

Richard Donnell, director of research for Hometrack, said: “Overall levels of market activity are well down on what would constitute normal market conditions. The willing purchasers that are returning are largely confined to the more wealthy areas of the country and limited to those buying with cash or who require low loan-to-value mortgages.â€

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Vendors seem to be reluctant to reduce prices. We have a divorcing couple who have offered to sell to us at 5% below asking price, overall about 20% below peak.

My opinion is that this is a shake out of many cash-rich buyers chasing a small number of properties.

These are people with large deposits getting very good fixed rate mortgages. These deals won't be around forever.

I don't think this bounce can go on much longer as this supply of cash-rich buyers is quite small.

What is becoming more apparent is that vendors CAN'T drop prices. Those that do sell are selling at the 25% below peak. This is why there is such a disconnect between original asking and selling prices. And why the number of sales has fakllen dramatically. Still too many people holding out for prices that they will never get.

The sooner we get negative equity mortgages the better.

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