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Jonnybegood

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There are signs of a possible turning point in the current downward market.

The stock market has recovered from February lows

Oil prices are on the rise

Credit beginning to ease and a bit of competition returning

Sterling gaining on the dollar

Production restarting at Car Plants

UK manufacturing rate of decline slowing

Car sales up

House prices up

Baltic index up

Losses not as bad as expected at a larger number of companies

Threat of bank failure seems to have passed

Plus many more indicators

But the bears come back with, Bull trap, wheres the funding to plug the gap, unemployment rising.

Surely if the above keep heading upwards then unemployment will begin to level off or even start falling as confidence picks up and companies start recruiting to meet demand which in turn leads to improved lending, i.e less risk.

Its just the opposite to what we have seen the past 18mths.

We don't need to get to 2007 levels of lending or employment, house prices have already fallen 16% officially, with many on here seeing 25 - 40% falls on certain property.

Borrowing levels going forward will be lower to reflect house prices and larger deposits, thee has also been record levels of debt repayments since IR fell, again shoring up the banks balance sheets.

What we are looking at is levels to stabilise the market, and I do not think we are that far away.

Added to this QE and low IRs which take time to work and I think people will start to realise the worst may be over.

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There are signs of a possible turning point in the current downward market.

The stock market has recovered from February lows

Oil prices are on the rise

Credit beginning to ease and a bit of competition returning

Sterling gaining on the dollar

Production restarting at Car Plants

UK manufacturing rate of decline slowing

Car sales up

House prices up

Baltic index up

Losses not as bad as expected at a larger number of companies

Threat of bank failure seems to have passed

Plus many more indicators

But the bears come back with, Bull trap, wheres the funding to plug the gap, unemployment rising.

Surely if the above keep heading upwards then unemployment will begin to level off or even start falling as confidence picks up and companies start recruiting to meet demand which in turn leads to improved lending, i.e less risk.

Its just the opposite to what we have seen the past 18mths.

We don't need to get to 2007 levels of lending or employment, house prices have already fallen 16% officially, with many on here seeing 25 - 40% falls on certain property.

Borrowing levels going forward will be lower to reflect house prices and larger deposits, thee has also been record levels of debt repayments since IR fell, again shoring up the banks balance sheets.

What we are looking at is levels to stabilise the market, and I do not think we are that far away.

Added to this QE and low IRs which take time to work and I think people will start to realise the worst may be over.

Many companies will find that they can cope perfectly alright, and possibly better, without the staff they've ditched.

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There are signs of a possible turning point in the current downward market.

The stock market has recovered from February lows

Oil prices are on the rise

Credit beginning to ease and a bit of competition returning

Sterling gaining on the dollar

Production restarting at Car Plants

UK manufacturing rate of decline slowing

Car sales up

House prices up

Baltic index up

Losses not as bad as expected at a larger number of companies

Threat of bank failure seems to have passed

Plus many more indicators

But the bears come back with, Bull trap, wheres the funding to plug the gap, unemployment rising.

Surely if the above keep heading upwards then unemployment will begin to level off or even start falling as confidence picks up and companies start recruiting to meet demand which in turn leads to improved lending, i.e less risk.

Its just the opposite to what we have seen the past 18mths.

We don't need to get to 2007 levels of lending or employment, house prices have already fallen 16% officially, with many on here seeing 25 - 40% falls on certain property.

Borrowing levels going forward will be lower to reflect house prices and larger deposits, thee has also been record levels of debt repayments since IR fell, again shoring up the banks balance sheets.

What we are looking at is levels to stabilise the market, and I do not think we are that far away.

Added to this QE and low IRs which take time to work and I think people will start to realise the worst may be over.

The fundamental (world) economic imbalances that led to this mess still exist.

Thus the problems still exist.

All they have done is paper over the cracks.

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Top 3 threads here right now:

Should I Hand Back Buy-to-let Keys?

Homebuyers Face Higher Mortgage Rates

Survey Valuation Less Than My Offer-help!

Look closely - those green shoots are astroturf.

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There are signs of a possible turning point in the current downward market.

The stock market has recovered from February lows

Oil prices are on the rise

Credit beginning to ease and a bit of competition returning

Sterling gaining on the dollar

Production restarting at Car Plants

UK manufacturing rate of decline slowing

Car sales up

House prices up

Baltic index up

Losses not as bad as expected at a larger number of companies

Threat of bank failure seems to have passed

Yup, all of which you and me are going to have to pay for in taxes for the next 30 years, since we've all given bailouts and backups to the banks for around a trillion quid.

Are you happy about that? Can't say I am.

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Yup, all of which you and me are going to have to pay for in taxes for the next 30 years, since we've all given bailouts and backups to the banks for around a trillion quid.

Are you happy about that? Can't say I am.

Doesn't really matter whether you and I are happy or not -- higher taxation to service all this public debt amounts to less demand in the economy, which means fewer opportunities for everybody. And there's still a crushing level of private debt that must either be repaid (lower future demand again) or default.

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Top 3 threads here right now:

Should I Hand Back Buy-to-let Keys?

Homebuyers Face Higher Mortgage Rates

Survey Valuation Less Than My Offer-help!

Look closely - those green shoots are astroturf.

1) So a retard bit off more than he could chew. Yes there a few of these around but not at 1990 levels of repossesion

2) So lock in for a rate of around 5% for 3 or 4 years - hows that different from the last 5 or 6 years?

3) I bet in most of these cases the vendors (if not stressed) will take it off the market - Then we see "no good stock on the market" threads.

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Come on bulls, you must be able to do better than this.

Whilst there are signs of stabilization across a number of economic indicators, this is against a backdrop of record government borrowing and massive money printing.

The biggest stimulus ever is just about stabilising things in the general economy, but all that is really happening is the government is now taking on debt that the consumer is unable or unwilling to. The cost of servicing this debt is gradually rising. Unless we address the key issue - the TRADE DEFICIT - the economy cannot recover as we are pissing our wealth out of the country on a daily basis.

That's why your green shoots are a big load of old toss.

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internet 2 double post

Edited by Bloo Loo

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1) So a retard bit off more than he could chew. Yes there a few of these around but not at 1990 levels of repossesion

2) So lock in for a rate of around 5% for 3 or 4 years - hows that different from the last 5 or 6 years?

3) I bet in most of these cases the vendors (if not stressed) will take it off the market - Then we see "no good stock on the market" threads.

Oil prices rising? is that a good thing?

GM bust...in itself the recognition is a good thing,but being bust? not good.

Banks failing stres tests...not good.

RBS downgrades...not good.

Taxes up...a lot..not good.

unemployment climbing...not good.

US house prices falling...not good for banks balance sheets...and that includes UK banks, who are net borrowers.

1000000 houses for sale on rightmove...clearly a shortage. thats 20 months supply at current approvals...let alone completions.

Osborne, sell your snake oil to those who care to listen.

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You may want to remove these from your it's getting better picture

Production restarting at Car Plants

Car sales up

Figures I'm seeing for Total Industry Europe19 AprilYTD2009

Cars 4485996 -825572

Commercials 691931 -329718

Europe production, is down by around 40% yoy

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