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mdman

Kiss Wages Goodbye

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Wages will not increase unless employees become hard to find.

This is hugely unlikely to happen, unless we get the black death again. :rolleyes:

The more people decide to trade on the black market, the more wages will drop because the lone man with little to loose has no tax / overheads, and will work for peanuts, plus you get the barter system more in action ( fix my fridge / I'll fix your computer), so less official trading is required all round. People think twice before throwing their money at a mechanic when so and so knows about cars. Community spirit is the enemy of the tax-man, no wonder the government wish to kill the british pub. :rolleyes:

I have spoken to many people that live off cash in hand, with tax-credits etc funding the rest. People on Tesco check outs beware there are many forces that will force wages to plummet in real terms.

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Keep

It

Simple

Stupid

Wages are falling

- widespread paycuts and reduced bonuses in the private sector

- below-inflation 'payrises' for most public sector workers, soon (after tories get in) to turn into renegotiated/ forced paycuts

- job losses increasing supply of potential labour driving prices down

- a general backdrop of global wage arbitrage and weaker unions driving pay down

Rising wages support house prices. Falling wages will force prices down. Falling house prices will tend to be deflationary, particularly in an economy that depends on credit-consumption-FIRE for growth

QE and ZIRP have failed to transmit money to workers in the form of rising wages. The money has either sat in banks, gone to foreign central banks, or ended up in damaging speculation (like the current commodity mini-bubble), which, in a credit-consumption-FIRE economy actually reduces disposable income tending to depress consumption and economic growth further.

QE and ZIRP have reached the limit of how much they've reduced borrowing costs. In fact, borrowing costs are climbing now, putting further strain on the economy.

So can anyone explain what will stop wages falling?

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QE and ZIRP have failed to transmit money to workers in the form of rising wages.

nope.

QE is to take wealth from workers.

The money has either sat in banks...

I assure you that hardly any of the QE money will be sitting in banks. the bankers have already taken it in the form of wages, bonuses and expenses.

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state failure ;)

I agree, if sovereign default = state failure (I still think there will be a state afterwards).

Basically, if wages keep falling and the economy keeps contracting, the state won't be able to finance itself. This suggests to me that wages won't keep falling.

Does anybody believe that we can have continued, grinding deflation and still service our sovereign debt?

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So can anyone explain what will stop wages falling?

How can we stop wages falling? We are now competing with the rest of the world we all wanting more for less.

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I agree, if sovereign default = state failure (I still think there will be a state afterwards).

Basically, if wages keep falling and the economy keeps contracting, the state won't be able to finance itself. This suggests to me that wages won't keep falling.

Does anybody believe that we can have continued, grinding deflation and still service our sovereign debt?

No chance.

The demands on the state will go up as it's ability to do anything go down.

The idea that everyone is just going to sit there and get shafted financially without opting out in one way or another is sher lunacy.

And most amusingly I think that people are going to just simply stop working as hard in a "oh ****** it then" kinda way.

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Construction wages are tumberling - what i am witnessing is something worse than the nineties - i recently put a bid in for some work £600k - there were three of us at the same level, but there were two that were 10% lower, thats £60k, and trust me, there was not 60k there. What they are doing is winning the work and then targeting those that are absolutly desperate, or not settling bills - its carnage, driving wages lower and lower, its compa nies creating there own destruction of not only there own company in the long run, but the demise of the industry to new lows.

Brickies -30%

Carpenters-30%

Scafoolding -50%

And im tendering on those rates, but now there taking another 10% off - its crazy, we are destoying ourselves.

Edited by Pearshape

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No chance.

The demands on the state will go up as it's ability to do anything go down.

The idea that everyone is just going to sit there and get shafted financially without opting out in one way or another is sher lunacy.

And most amusingly I think that people are going to just simply stop working as hard in a "oh ****** it then" kinda way.

Loads of recently redundant and others will move into the cash-in-hand black economy and be pleasantly surprised how well-off they are when they don't pay any tax.

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Construction wages are tumberling - what i am witnessing is something worse than the nineties - i recently put a bid in for some work £600k - there were three of us at the same level, but there were two that were 10% lower, thats £60k, and trust me, there was not 60k there. What they are doing is winning the work and then targeting those that are absolutly desperate, or not settling bills - its carnage, driving wages lower and lower, its compa nies creating there own destruction of not only there own company in the long run, but the demise of the industry to new lows.

Brickies -30%

Carpenters-30%

Scafoolding -50%

And im tendering on those rates, but now there taking another 10% off - its crazy, we are destoying ourselves.

+1

I was talking to a roofer at work, he's working for a big firm. Last year he was getting £15.00 per m2 this has now gone down to £7.50

50%

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So can one of you state failure/ sovereign debt default proponents explain exactly how this drives wages up. Sorry for being a bit dense

If we become a "stop working as hard in a "oh ****** it then" kinda way" economy, that will drive wages down?

I can see two possible routes to wage rises. Going back to credit, consumption and FIRE, or rebalancing the economy towards production (Yoss' idea?). And I reckon the first option can't happen. I also don't believe the printing presses will be used to pay workers.

We're in for the long haul

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So can one of you state failure/ sovereign debt default proponents explain exactly how this drives wages up. Sorry for being a bit dense

If we become a "stop working as hard in a "oh ****** it then" kinda way" economy, that will drive wages down?

I can see two possible routes to wage rises. Going back to credit, consumption and FIRE, or rebalancing the economy towards production (Yoss' idea?). And I reckon the first option can't happen. I also don't believe the printing presses will be used to pay workers.

We're in for the long haul

Both of these options assume a command economy.

Which is what's dying.

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Loads of recently redundant and others will move into the cash-in-hand black economy and be pleasantly surprised how well-off they are when they don't pay any tax.

That's what I think will happen too, I expect it will be the black economy that makes life a little better for a lot of people in the coming years.

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The idea that everyone is just going to sit there and get shafted financially without opting out in one way or another is sher lunacy.

I noticed Federal Income tax revenue was down 44% YoY in April.

Do you think Americans opting not to fill in Federal income tax returns was a significant factor in this figure?

(obviously declining wages play a large part).

Loads of recently redundant and others will move into the cash-in-hand black economy and be pleasantly surprised how well-off they are when they don't pay any tax.

yep.

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That's what I think will happen too, I expect it will be the black economy that makes life a little better for a lot of people in the coming years.

****** off ya racist BNP supporting **** !!

Oops. Sorry. I thought I was in the Off Topic forum.

;)

PS - Who thinks there will be a General election called within 3 months ? How much longer can it go on ? Even Labour senior chumps have had enough. Rats + sinking ship = defunct.

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Construction wages are tumberling - what i am witnessing is something worse than the nineties - i recently put a bid in for some work £600k - there were three of us at the same level, but there were two that were 10% lower, thats £60k, and trust me, there was not 60k there. What they are doing is winning the work and then targeting those that are absolutly desperate, or not settling bills - its carnage, driving wages lower and lower, its compa nies creating there own destruction of not only there own company in the long run, but the demise of the industry to new lows.

Brickies -30%

Carpenters-30%

Scafoolding -50%

And im tendering on those rates, but now there taking another 10% off - its crazy, we are destoying ourselves.

From what I am seeing the self employed and especially the trades have been the hardest hit. Thier plight does not appear to be reflected in the unemployment figures which are already a lot worse than officially stated.

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Construction wages are tumberling - what i am witnessing is something worse than the nineties - i recently put a bid in for some work £600k - there were three of us at the same level, but there were two that were 10% lower, thats £60k, and trust me, there was not 60k there. What they are doing is winning the work and then targeting those that are absolutly desperate, or not settling bills - its carnage, driving wages lower and lower, its compa nies creating there own destruction of not only there own company in the long run, but the demise of the industry to new lows.

Brickies -30%

Carpenters-30%

Scafoolding -50%

And im tendering on those rates, but now there taking another 10% off - its crazy, we are destoying ourselves.

From what I am seeing the self employed and especially the trades have been the hardest hit. Thier plight does not appear to be reflected in the unemployment figures which are already a lot worse than officially stated.

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Wages probably won't rise much in the next 15-20 years tbh (and will fall for the next 5-10 years). The economic "miracle" of NuLabour, coupled with record debt, and very little value added to the economy in the last 12 or so years has put paid to that.

Recently, I've come to think we are going to see a prolonged bout of deflation. Added to this, I reckon unemployment will peak at 7-8 million (official) by 2010-2011, with a decade or 2 of stagnant growth. I also think the UK will lose a significant proportion of its skilled workforce. Any steep inflation will be temporary, most likely due to fluctuations in the strength of the currency.

In other words, the UK is looking rather screwed tbh.

The only reason things aren't too bad now is that nu-labour are throwing near infinite money and resources to fight this recession. What will happen when the money runs out, and this spending loses momentum?

I don't think "printy-printy" will cover it tbh, nor will it have much impact in the medium-long term.

Edited by clubberdude

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Guest BoomBoomCrash
Loads of recently redundant and others will move into the cash-in-hand black economy and be pleasantly surprised how well-off they are when they don't pay any tax.

Translation: Unscrupulous bastards like me will use the situation to get staff on a cash in hand basis and pay them buttons

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