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three pint princess

Gbp Versus House Prices, Following The Trend.

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This also means the Halifax due sometime soon should go upwards and that Sterling GBP will fall in trade weighted value over the next year, against trend.

I was wondering how closely they are linked so simply graphed monthly amounts not seasonally adjusted from Halifax, Nationwide and the Bank of England Sterling index.

The original graph was comparing the Case & Shiller index of 20 areas NSA, Nationwide index NSA, Halifax NSA and BOE Sterling ERI NSA.

The graph shows peak houseprice onwards with the USA moved forwards to match ours, as if we started the same time. The dotted lines

are how much each measure moves away from the USA house price crash, all NSA all monthly so averaged in the case of the BOE.



Bear in mind this is sterling trade weighted, so against the Euro as well.

It seems very odd that house prices have such power over exchange rates as I can't see it being the other way around.

Edit: the green line that just says "Adjusted" is just the BOE ERI index, I just chose a random cell for the name and forgot to change it.

Edited by Tom Peters

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Interest rate expectations I guess. The BoE secret is out. They spend 2 days every month meeting to set interest rates. All that happens is Mervyn clicks on the Rightmove website and moves rates in the same direction as house prices.

Edited by ingermany

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Updated with Halifax 2.6% from today. If you put in daily ERI it's even smoother, this is monthly.


We are now only between 3% and 5 % off the Case Shiller index if our crash mirrors what the USA did from peak.

Edited by Tom Peters

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