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Dead Cat Bounce Is Good News For Bears....

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It just will draw in sucker BTL investors :lol: and a few gullible FTB's :( thus reducing their war chest when we hit bottom proper in 2011. Should make the auction rooms house more interesting with them out of equation...

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It just will draw in sucker BTL investors :lol: and a few gullible FTB's :( thus reducing their war chest when we hit bottom proper in 2011. Should make the auction rooms house more interesting with them out of equation...

Whilst this may or may not be the absolute trough (that should be Q1 2010, but if this bounce is big enough, it may already have passed), prices then should end up being within a percent or two of Q1 09 prices.

I also keep on saying, that when the bottom is reached, posters on here will be the last people to realise it. Threads like this confirm that theory on a daily basis. :lol:

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Whilst this may or may not be the absolute trough (that should be Q1 2010, but if this bounce is big enough, it may already have passed), prices then should end up being within a percent or two of Q1 09 prices.

I also keep on saying, that when the bottom is reached, posters on here will be the last people to realise it. Threads like this confirm that theory on a daily basis. :lol:

You may be right that bears will spot the bottom late, however, a bull wouldn't see a bull trap if it jumped out and smacked him in the face.

If you are so confiedent its the bottom why dont you go out an buy a few bargains, then you can make some more money for nothing and retire even earlier.

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It just will draw in sucker BTL investors :lol: and a few gullible FTB's :( thus reducing their war chest when we hit bottom proper in 2011. Should make the auction rooms house more interesting with them out of equation...

My thoughts exactly.

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I would hate to be late in noticing the bottom of the market....

Going by pretty much every single house price bust in history, even if the bears are a year too late - they are unlikely to pay more than 5% over the very, very, very bottom price. However if you dive in too early ? You could easily lose out on 20+%. Or more.

Just which one is the better option ?

Tricky one isn't it. ;)

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I also keep on saying, that when the bottom is reached, posters on here will be the last people to realise it. Threads like this confirm that theory on a daily basis. :lol:

in my opinion there is a long long way to go before the bottom

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c06cc924-4ed9-11...?nclick_check=1

these are facts my not opinion

unemployment rising

tightening of credit

debt of uk population

taxes (that will have to increase with or without the current clowns in charge)

add these to the real big elephant in the room the overall uk economy - so much of the economy is reliant on the population having disposable income, this will dry up further leading to further unemployment thus leading to greater credit tightening (at sensible rates) - hope of high houses prices eg 2007 figures? not a chance.

still, we all have opinions - finally i really am quite amazed that there are bulls. assuming that they don't actually own banks in which case i can understand their position but i really can't believe there are selfish greedy people wanting to make housing unaffordable - afterall it is a basic human requirement

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Guest redwine
I would hate to be late in noticing the bottom of the market....

Going by pretty much every single house price bust in history, even if the bears are a year too late - they are unlikely to pay more than 5% over the very, very, very bottom price. However if you dive in too early ? You could easily lose out on 20+%. Or more.

Just which one is the better option ?

Tricky one isn't it. ;)

housing cyles are 8 year highs and 8 year lows a french economist called it the "tunnel of friggitt"

you go up and then down like a yoyo

today we are going down but you have to choose the right date to buy

thats where the real problem is ?

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housing cyles are 8 year highs and 8 year lows a french economist called it the "tunnel of friggitt"

you go up and then down like a yoyo

today we are going down but you have to choose the right date to buy

thats where the real problem is ?

The real problem is it turns a potentially productive economy into a pointless, unproductive real estate casino with associated dead weight costs on everyone.

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Indeed, remember an old boss telling me he bought his first place in '91 thinking the worst was over, little did he know. Whatever the twists and turns over the next few months its going to be many years before the banks have rebuilt their balance sheets sufficiently to support 2007 lending levels again.

I would hate to be late in noticing the bottom of the market....

Going by pretty much every single house price bust in history, even if the bears are a year too late - they are unlikely to pay more than 5% over the very, very, very bottom price. However if you dive in too early ? You could easily lose out on 20+%. Or more.

Just which one is the better option ?

Tricky one isn't it. ;)

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housing cyles are 8 year highs and 8 year lows a french economist called it the "tunnel of friggitt"

you go up and then down like a yoyo

today we are going down but you have to choose the right date to buy

thats where the real problem is ?

If you are wanting to buy of course it is difficult to choose the perfect time.

However, previous busts have tought us the market trundles along the bottom for years before picking up at any great speed again.

Of course this time may be the one that is different. I wouldn't bet on it though.

I would be waiting until the market has trundled along for at least a year. This plan should take out the odd false bottom that are certain to occur.

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Guest Skinty
I would hate to be late in noticing the bottom of the market....

I wouldn't. The crash happens more quickly than the recovery. And if you always sold before the top and bought when prices were clearly rising again then you would be making a hell of a profit over time.

Maybe you should consider it in terms of profit and loss being proportional to risk.

In practise, what's likely to happen is that there will come a time when house prices have reached a point whereby it's worthwhile buying regardless of how much further they have to fall. That's when we know that we have reached, or nearly reached, the bottom.

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these are facts my not opinion

unemployment rising

tightening of credit

debt of uk population

taxes (that will have to increase with or without the current clowns in charge)

add these to the real big elephant in the room the overall uk economy - so much of the economy is reliant on the population having disposable income, this will dry up further leading to further unemployment thus leading to greater credit tightening (at sensible rates) - hope of high houses prices eg 2007 figures? not a chance.

There's one thing that the bears haven't totally factored into account, though, which is the government trying to introduce measures to prevent OOs from being repo-ed, even if they do fall behind with mortgage payments. In the short term this will keep the volume of properties on the market relatively low, and stop HPs falling as rapidly and as deeply as they would do if the whole process were left entirely to market forces. In short, forced sellers are being artificially kept out of the market.

In the long term it won't make a difference, as I suspect an incoming government (of any colour) will scrap the 'we pay your mortgage interest if you lost your job' type schemes as part of a wider scaling back of the welfare state that won't be optional, given the state of the public finances. Once we get a significantly larger number of forced sellers in the market, then the falls will resume with a vengeance.

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I would hate to be late in noticing the bottom of the market....

Going by pretty much every single house price bust in history, even if the bears are a year too late - they are unlikely to pay more than 5% over the very, very, very bottom price. However if you dive in too early ? You could easily lose out on 20+%. Or more.

Just which one is the better option ?

Tricky one isn't it. ;)

This needs to be tattooed on everyone's faces. Bang on the money ccc

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There's one thing that the bears haven't totally factored into account, though, which is the government trying to introduce measures to prevent OOs from being repo-ed, even if they do fall behind with mortgage payments. In the short term this will keep the volume of properties on the market relatively low, and stop HPs falling as rapidly and as deeply as they would do if the whole process were left entirely to market forces. In short, forced sellers are being artificially kept out of the market.

In the long term it won't make a difference, as I suspect an incoming government (of any colour) will scrap the 'we pay your mortgage interest if you lost your job' type schemes as part of a wider scaling back of the welfare state that won't be optional, given the state of the public finances. Once we get a significantly larger number of forced sellers in the market, then the falls will resume with a vengeance.

This will not be scrapped. Ever. Its far cheaper than social housing which is why it was brought in in the first place.

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This will not be scrapped. Ever. Its far cheaper than social housing which is why it was brought in in the first place.

yeah but, why pay the mortgage on a landlord when actually owning and renting out is much cheaper.....are you suggesting the Government is onto something by paying the landlord, rather than Buying to Let?

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Please do not feed the bulls!

Does anyone else find it ironic that MPs are being saved from themselves, because in the current climate surely none will be interested in buying property with taxpayers money? However, during the biggest property boom in UK history, inflated primarily by 'no more boom and bust Brown' so many hoovered up at our expense.

It looks like NuLabour are going to beat the 12 year record of the 3rd Reich. 1933-1945 v 1997-20??

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I find it ironic that people with cash have missed some serious bargains in the property market already :o .

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Please do not feed the bulls!

Does anyone else find it ironic that MPs are being saved from themselves, because in the current climate surely none will be interested in buying property with taxpayers money? However, during the biggest property boom in UK history, inflated primarily by 'no more boom and bust Brown' so many hoovered up at our expense.

It looks like NuLabour are going to beat the 12 year record of the 3rd Reich. 1933-1945 v 1997-20??

Are you suggesting that labour wins the next election, or that new labour gets rebranded in 2020 after ten years in the political wilderness?

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Whilst this may or may not be the absolute trough (that should be Q1 2010,

Hopeful at best, imo you could add at least 12-18 months to that.

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I will buy a home when it becomes affordable, at a sensible price not because I think it's as low as it will go. And now is not the time.

Simple plans are always the best. If only everyone stuck to this logic we wouldn't have housing bubbles.

PS - SKinty - That first line you quoted was me being sarcastic. ;)

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Are you suggesting that labour wins the next election, or that new labour gets rebranded in 2020 after ten years in the political wilderness?

They are unelectable, but it's already 12 years 1 month......3rd Reich was 30th Jan 1933 - 30th April 1945.....so if Brown can hold on for 2 more months.....which he surely will, they will have lasted longer than the Nazis.

In any case there should not be an election before ALL the MPs expense claims are known.

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Wrong, if Cameron gets in with a sizeable majority which now looks a shoe in he won't have to face the electorate for five years if need be so he can be as savage with his spending cuts as he likes. If he's not then they'll be no buyers for goverment debt anyhow so he'll have to be whether he likes it or not. Expect HPC part II (this time its serious) to begin then. That of course is if the FSA don't help speed things up a little in September by restricting income to loan ratiios.

This will not be scrapped. Ever. Its far cheaper than social housing which is why it was brought in in the first place.

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This will not be scrapped. Ever. Its far cheaper than social housing which is why it was brought in in the first place.

I'm not sure that it is .. do you remember the reason they brought in the restrictions (that this government instantly removed the second the going got tough) was that in 1991 or so the cost of all this mortgage interest was crippling the country. It's not "Social housing" that is the problem it's the fact that we pay peoples mortgage ...

As a tax payer I would question why the state was paying £1000 for someone to live in a house that the goverment could rent on the open market for £600.

It will probably come in as part of a "General overhaul" of the housing benefit system where there are caps to HB based on local rents ..

Of course given that this would probably send the banks into a second wave of crisis would probably stop the government from doing it ..

But don't worry because either way the income of bankers is sure to rise ....

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You may be right that bears will spot the bottom late, however, a bull wouldn't see a bull trap if it jumped out and smacked him in the face.

If you are so confiedent its the bottom why dont you go out an buy a few bargains, then you can make some more money for nothing and retire even earlier.

You know, i have asked this question many many times and none of the bulls seem to confirm they are interested in bagging some "property bargains"...why is this?

I have come to the conclusion that even in the most deranged of bull minds, there is a small part of the brain whispering a little piece of common sense "don't buy" it whispers quietly to the decision making part of the brain "the bottom is yet to come" and subtly mentions words such as "cat" "bounce" "trap" "rally" "dead" and "sucker" etc.

Obviously in this unconscious rationalising process, the mouth and typing fingers of the bull are bypassed...

I'm afraid due to the absence of response from any bull on the subject, this is the best i can do.

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