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Sybil13

The Houseprice Crash Is Over

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I could have linked this with so many threads today, a bit of sunshine and everyone seems to be losing the plot so much so that we have even been talking on HPC about all playing at being bulls. If people are defecting by the 1st June what will happen over the rest of the summer? I just can't believe given all the reasons why property will keep crashing that we have articles like this one today from someone who should know better.

The House Price Crash is Over

So you tell me what has changed since these articles?

Why House Prices Have Much Further to Fall

Why we Should Let Property Prices Fall

Have we suddenly got £200bn of funding for mortgage lending ?

Have wages gone up suddenly? Did 2007 lending levels not break the banks and leave the country bankrupt?

I guess we were all warned of a dead cat bounce but we seem to have forgotten what we KNOW. Merryn Somerset Webb spoke in her article STAY AWAY FROM PROPERTY IT HAS MUCH FURTHER TO FALL said:

The truth is that all real bear markets tend to offer the unwary investor one last opportunity to lose money. The summer of 2009 is probably that opportunity this time round

I don't think I will be defecting yet .

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Who is this Harvey Jones? He doesnt seem sure about anything much.

i think he has embibed his cousin, Harvey wallbanger.

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Who is this Harvey Jones? He doesnt seem sure about anything much.

He was chairman of ICI in the 70s and did a series of TV programs called Troubleshooter.

He died about 18 months ago

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All this optimism on the day GM went bankrupt. Just imagine how happy we are going to be when a whole plethora of businesses join them (unfortunately it would appear that mine will be joining them...........how much is job seekers allowance?).

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All this optimism on the day GM went bankrupt. Just imagine how happy we are going to be when a whole plethora of businesses join them (unfortunately it would appear that mine will be joining them...........how much is job seekers allowance?).

Really sorry to hear that. Won't depress you with the answer regarding Job Seekers. Let's just say that, if you qualify, you won't be putting on much weight with it <_<

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Well, Harvey Jones is an economics guru and I am a mere hairy-arsed lorry driver.

Having said that, I was a hairy-arsed lorry driver when I STR'd in 2007 and all of the gurus predicted no HPC.

My call is that we have another month or two of random and sporadic small increases or decreases but that once the buying season is over, we will have at least another 10 months of falls in the region of -2% or more every month.

The industry I work in is the perfect bellwether for the economy because if you ain't buying it, we ain't moving it. Road freight is down by 12% since the peak and continuing to fall daily. We have not even entered the painful stage yet.

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Look, we live in a creeping corporatist-socialist-fascist police state. Over the years we have been dumbed down by the Labour political movement's view of the world, and as a people I am confident we are being dumbed down further.

That, and the fact a lot of people are thick as sh1t means that a bit of sunshine comes and we have the traditional British feelgood factor.

For a short while, a month or three perhaps, people will think that things are ok again. Bills will be low, the car can be driven in nice conditions etc. Let's face it, this country has sh1t weather most of the time and the sun really does hit our brains.

You can bling away to look at houses in your Mini Cunter or whatever, but if there's no mortgage money, there's no completion of sale.

I expect this bubble to burst soon and we'll be back to living in a sh1t country again.

TFH

Edited by Tin Foil Hat

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Well, Harvey Jones is an economics guru and I am a mere hairy-arsed lorry driver.

Having said that, I was a hairy-arsed lorry driver when I STR'd in 2007 and all of the gurus predicted no HPC.

My call is that we have another month or two of random and sporadic small increases or decreases but that once the buying season is over, we will have at least another 10 months of falls in the region of -2% or more every month.

The industry I work in is the perfect bellwether for the economy because if you ain't buying it, we ain't moving it. Road freight is down by 12% since the peak and continuing to fall daily. We have not even entered the painful stage yet.

We have our (sadly deceased) mother-in-law's house on the market at the mo and we have had daily viewings so there is certainly optimism out there but I will be happier when its sold.

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Yes, let's just wait until it's hammering down with rain in November when another half-a-million have lost their jobs and another half a million are slated to lose theirs in the next six months, and see what happens to house prices then.

All of the bears who have bought lately have accepted that prices have further to fall, but like myself (I came close to buying a few months ago) they have other considerations apart from obtaining the lowest price.

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All this optimism on the day GM went bankrupt.

Except it didn't go bankrupt at all. Technically, it entered chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, which is substantially short of a full bankruptcy (chapter 7).

Essentially, it is a means of forcing negotiations that will allow GM to write off or renegotiate it's liabilities, whilst still surviving as a viable company.

This is good for the health of the wider economy, not bad. It allows GM to restructure, and keep going as a viable concern. Most people will stay employed. Most suppliers will keep supplying. etc etc etc.

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Except it didn't go bankrupt at all. Technically, it entered chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, which is substantially short of a full bankruptcy (chapter 7).

Essentially, it is a means of forcing negotiations that will allow GM to write off or renegotiate it's liabilities, whilst still surviving as a viable company.

This is good for the health of the wider economy, not bad. It allows GM to restructure, and keep going as a viable concern. Most people will stay employed. Most suppliers will keep supplying. etc etc etc.

apart from the 21000 who wont stay employed, the 1100 dealerships shafted TODAY, the suppliers are not getting paid, and no-one wants their cars anyway.

And theyve already p1ssed 100bn on the fracking black hole already.

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Except it didn't go bankrupt at all. Technically, it entered chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, which is substantially short of a full bankruptcy (chapter 7).

Absolutely, Hamish. It's not dead, it's just pining for the fjords.

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So, not paying it's bills will be good for the economy will it? It's bust, the fact that the US government wants to turn it into a zombie company means that it will in all likelihood drag the government down with it.

Like the Monty Python parrot sketch, "it's not dead, it's merely resting."

It's bust.

You could always show some solidarity and buy a new Vauxhall this weekend, go on you know it's an investment in the future, AND it's underwritten by the US government, the most responsible and honest government in the world.

It's getting positively surreal, still what's good for the goose, maybe losing lots of money is the new way to succeed in business. In that case, my company is gonna be quids in it's losing so much............

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apart from the 21000 who wont stay employed, the 1100 dealerships shafted TODAY,

Which would be a minority. :rolleyes:

Therefore most employees will keep jobs, most supplyers will keep on supplying, most dealerships will survive, etc etc etc.

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Which would be a minority. :rolleyes:

Therefore most employees will keep jobs, most supplyers will keep on supplying, most dealerships will survive, etc etc etc.

we'll see.

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The simple fact is this. Vendors can not afford to drop their prices anymore, and will have to stay put for the time being.

And it could take many years.

Here is why:

Most vendors will either want to sell to:

-Downsize.

By selling too low, they run the risk of running out of money on what equity is left once they have purchased a property outright.

-Upsize

Selling too low and gone is the equity needed to put on a bigger property. Add to the fact that generally upsizers may not have that much equity left anyway on the property they are trying too sell.

-STR

Who really would want to STR in a current climate?

Above three scenarios are summing up why, it is becoming financially impossible to go any lower than what has already happened.

Forced sellers only will drag the market down. At the moment, this is being contained.

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Like the Monty Python parrot sketch, "it's not dead, it's merely resting."

Wow, spooky, you must have been typing that at the same time I was typing the post immediately above it!

Great Minds etc! ;)

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The simple fact is this. Vendors can not afford to drop their prices anymore, and will have to stay put for the time being.

What if someone who owns a house dies?

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The simple fact is this. Vendors can not afford to drop their prices anymore, and will have to stay put for the time being.

And it could take many years.

Here is why:

Most vendors will either want to sell to:

-Downsize.

By selling too low, they run the risk of running out of money on what equity is left once they have purchased a property outright.

-Upsize

Selling too low and gone is the equity needed to put on a bigger property. Add to the fact that generally upsizers may not have that much equity left anyway on the property they are trying too sell.

-STR

Who really would want to STR in a current climate?

Above three scenarios are summing up why, it is becoming financially impossible to go any lower than what has already happened.

Forced sellers only will drag the market down. At the moment, this is being contained.

...by low interest rates and belt tightening...the roof over your head will be the last thing you will give up on until you have to....while we are waiting the rest of the economy is suffering.

Lower house prices means less debt, which means more money in your pocket, which means we all can spend more in the economy, pay more taxes, feel more secure and happier ....at the moment only the few have that luxury but they are not using it..... too much money is locked up in bricks. ;)

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I don't think you can say we even had a house price crash.

A HPC would have meant ALL houses dropped a certain %.

What are you talking about, you silly little man?

The average house price has fallen by between 17 and 22% according to the two organisations which ought to know about these things. Some have fallen by more, some by less, but here in Kent the typical FTB or STB house has fallen by exactly that amount.

I bet you that although we are in a brief buying window now, prices will still fall over the next three months, loser pays for a full-on night with those twins at the Three Squirrels on Detling Hill, deal or no deal? :blink:

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Wow, spooky, you must have been typing that at the same time I was typing the post immediately above it!

Great Minds etc! ;)

Absolutely Harry, it just feels like the famous parrot sketch on this forum, it really doesn't matter that the bird is dead, they will argue that it isn't because they can, and/or they are really stupid, in denial, or simply a contrarian. Bizarre.

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Can I ask why the bulls are on this site at all? If I had a VI in house prices going skywards and I was pretty sure that was going to be the case, I'd have better things to do than post on this site.

Therefore, can I put it to you that a HPC seems inevitable? That houses have NEVER increased in value during a recssion and this is far worse than the last one. Are you attempting to bolster up your dwindling beliefs by posting on here?

If house prices haven't crashed by at LEAST 30% by 2012 (I do believe it will take some time, mainly down to deluded sellers), then in time-honoured Krusty fashion, I will eat my own hat.

Thank you :P

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Except it didn't go bankrupt at all. Technically, it entered chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, which is substantially short of a full bankruptcy (chapter 7).

Essentially, it is a means of forcing negotiations that will allow GM to write off or renegotiate it's liabilities, whilst still surviving as a viable company.

This is good for the health of the wider economy, not bad. It allows GM to restructure, and keep going as a viable concern. Most people will stay employed. Most suppliers will keep supplying. etc etc etc.

and the losses disappear into thin air? Thing is, there is massive overcapacity still in carmaking. Malinvestment such as this is actualy abad thing, and will be proven to be so in time.

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